Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘GLD’

Who Will Decide the Fate of Gold ETFs? The Fed or Donald Trump

Citigroup sees gold prices touching $1,400 levels ‘not seen since early 2013’, while the metal will likely slide to the $1,250 level if Clinton makes it to the White House. Citigroup believes that Trump’s protectionist ideas on external trade and immigration, if realized, suggest a US recession sooner rather than later. Investors to keep a watch on gold ETFs like GLD.

Can The Price Of Gold Break Above This Key Level?

The post-2011 Down trendline looks to be the line to focus on at the moment in determining the direction of the price of gold & should serve as stiff resistance for the time being, absent a Simone Biles-like vault over the line. The good news is that the GLD has already twice tested the trendline, in early July and early August. These tests should have served to weaken the trendline somewhat.

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A Truly Generational Opportunity

Despite my ongoing belief that we are now in a corrective phase for the precious metals, I think that owning silver versus owning gold is a high-probability trade that could be the 2016 Trade of the Year. I am going to put on a trade this week that effectively favors silver over gold and is a high-risk method of shorting the Gold-to-Silver Ratio.

Gold is About to Get Volatile – Hang on Real Tight!

The gold trade is getting crowded right now. It’s already led to some serious volatility. And there will be plenty more. Is this trade about to overheat and blow up in your face? Even with a big, fat trend change like what we’re seeing in gold, the gains aren’t automatic. It’s important to keep your head on a swivel and periodically take some cash off the table if we get overextended here.

US Mint Gold And Silver Bullion Coin Sales

Contrary to Wall Street’s assertion that gold and silver demand continue to implode heralding much-lower precious-metals prices, the US Mint says American Eagle coins are selling like hotcakes. On Dec 31st it reported that 2015 sales of its gold coins soared 53% above 2014’s levels, while silver coin sales hit an all-time record! That’s impressive considering 2015’s poor price action.

Silver and Physical Inventory Part 2 – The Big Silver ETF

Do you believe the ETF’s are actually backed by physical metal? We have some turnover in the SLV and it is counter intuitive. It has to do with avoiding SEC shareholding requirements and moving silver around that might be needed elsewhere. But generally speaking, I don’t have any reason to doubt that the SLV doesn’t have the silver to back the shares. I know a lot of people doubt it.

The War between Physical Gold vs Paper Gold Bullion Hots up

Investors in gold ETFs such as GLD are liquidating dismayed by the negative trend. Some of the physical gold released is simply migrating east, but this is small in comparison to the increase in demand from value buyers around the world. Considering all the factors, the odds favour a gold price recovery from current levels, if only to call a halt to the underlying redistribution of bullion.

American Futures Speculators - The Primary Driver Of Gold Is Bullish

Gold’s primary driver in recent years has been the collective positions of American futures speculators. Their hyper-leveraged bets have given them outsized influence on gold prices & today their gold futures bets are very bearish. When this selling reverses into buying, it has the potential to fuel a sharp & major gold rally.

Gold Futures Short Covering Rally

In the past, speculator short covering frenzies have pushed gold high enough to ignite new long-side buying by speculators. If this next short covering gold rally coincides with the lofty US stock markets and/or parabolic US dollar finally rolling over, there will be a big resurgence in gold investment demand way beyond speculator short covering.

Gold Prices and the Fed's Interest Rate Hikes

The sharp early-year surge in gold prices has fizzled in recent weeks Are higher rates really bearish for gold? Gold can’t drift lower forever any more than stock markets can rally forever. So instead of just blindly accepting the belief that Fed’s rate hikes are bearish for gold, why not check the historical record which proves just the opposite?

Forget The News. Charts Suggest Silver Price $12 - 14, Gold $1,000 - 1,100

How has all of the news events pertaining to gold and silver impacted the price levels? How many more stories can one read, how many more charts/graphs can one view & expect gold and silver to rally as a result? Forget the news. The trend is down irrespective of all news. Be patient & observe how the character of the market unfolds.

Enormous Bullish Gold Bet was just made with Call Options

Someone made a huge Gold bullish option bet & purchased 40,000 Mar 2015 GLD gold call options. The strike of the call options was $120. If the price of GLD reaches the range $130-$135 before expiration, this trader will make between 300% and 600% of his investment or $20-$50 million net profit.

10 Remarkable Gold And Silver Trends Into 2015

Our belief is that it will take some time until the prices of gold and silver will move back in line with these fundamental trends. Until then, gold or silver owners can rest assured that the gold and silver market is not as bad as some would like to make you believe. Here are 10 remarkable gold and silver trends going into 2015.

A Major Silver Shortage Must and Will Occur

With plunging base metal prices, given that majority of silver production is by-product from base metals; its entirely possible that global silver production declines 25%-50% over next 3-5 years, unless prices significantly increase. Silver industrial demand excluding silverware, jewelry, coins & bars is forecast to increase by 27% over the next 5 years.

7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last 3 years. In addition, a correction-defying Wall Street stock market & the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream & it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold. If we’re in a bear market, then I have a few questions.

Gold Shorting Exhaustion

Futures trading is an exceedingly unforgiving game, with super-dangerous inherent leverage. The sole driver of the crazy movements in gold, in last few months has been US speculators’ extreme shorting of gold futures, which has battered gold prices around in the absence of investment demand. But this epic gold shorting looks exhausted.

A final purge to $700? What Gold Bulls' surrender might look like

At this point in a bear market, attention turns toward anticipating what “capitulation” might look like – that phase when remaining loyalists surrender hope and liquidate in disgust. While there are inklings that gold has fallen far from favor among traders, if a comprehensive capitulation is to finish this move it hasn’t nearly happened yet.

What's Behind The Sudden Ignorance Of Geopolitical Risk By Gold

Gold is trading below where it was when the Russians first dipped their toes in Ukraine to test the water. The question for all of the investors, traders & analysts is the same: Why? The last time the world faced a meaningful threat of a large-scale conflict between East and West, the gold price soared. This time it hasn’t moved. Why?

The Strong Season For Gold Buying Starts

The strong season in Gold is just getting underway, with this metal’s summer-doldrums seasonal low in place. Major income-cycle and cultural drivers from around the world lead to outsized gold demand surges. And gold’s best months of the year are nearing as Asian harvest buying ramps up followed by the fabled Indian wedding season’s arrival.

Why Gold and Silver Could Outperform Every Other Asset Class in 2014

What will set off an explosive rally in gold and silver remains to be seen but there are plenty of potential triggers including war in the Ukraine or South Korea, as well as the significant financial risk of collapsing asset bubbles engineered by the extremely loose monetary policies of the world’s central banks.

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