Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold ETF’

Gold Futures Traders Breath Easy as Dovish Fed Powers the Next Major Rally

Gold futures surged after the Fed again chickened out on raising its benchmark interest rate. Gold futures speculators’ fear of Fed rate hikes has been a major drag on gold. Rate-hike risks just plummeted in the coming months, since the Fed can’t risk acting heading into the critical US presidential election. Gold’s next major upleg is likely just unleashed by the Fed.

30 Years of Data Says Gold Prices Will Rise If the Fed Hikes Rates

Fed rate hikes have, on average, seen much stronger gold gains than a cut, and more frequently, too. Seen against the last 30 years of data, gold is anticipating a major shock from Wednesday’s announcement. If the bond and futures markets prove right instead, and the Fed delays again, the turnaround in gold bullion could be swift.

Negative Yields On Global Government Debt Drives Gold Demand

It’s unprecedented that a third of all global government debt has negative yields. Which drives gold demand. Effectively what we’re seeing is people’s pensions being decimated because the policymakers have had very few if any alternatives left. It is in this environment that gold will help satisfy need. It’s more about protection of wealth rather than creation. That’s where gold plays.

Gold and Silver Take a Breather - Will Investors Grab this Buying Opportunity?

In the near term, gold is threatened by a rate hike & there may well be some liquidations of tactical positions. This is to be expected, especially around the start of summer, based on historical precedent. We are optimistic about gold over the rest of this year as negative interest rate fears & also inflation have reawakened investors’ confidence in gold as a reliable currency & store of value.

Is Gold a Commodity, an Investment, or Money? - The Golden Chameleon

At times, gold behaves like a commodity. The gold price tracks the ups and downs of commodity indices. Sometimes, gold is viewed as a safe haven investment & competes with stocks and bonds for investor attention. On occasion, gold assumes its role as the most stable long-term form of money the world has ever known. Like a chameleon, gold also changes its nature depending on the background.

Here Is What Will Fuel The Mighty Upleg In Gold In 2016

With the gold positions of speculators & investors alike so radically skewed by the Fed’s extreme market distortions, vast mean-reversion buying is inevitable in 2016 to start to normalize gold investment back to reasonable levels. Coming off of such an anomalously-low base where virtually everyone loathes gold, all this gold buying is going to fuel a mighty gold upleg.

Radical Underinvestment in Gold Today is Super-Bullish

American investors are going to soon plow tens of billions of dollars back into gold in an attempt to regain some modicum of prudent portfolio diversification. While these capital flows will be small compared to the stock markets, they are massive relative to gold investment demand. All that buying is going to catapult gold prices far higher.

Gold Glimmers as Global Market Fear Grips Investors

When a currency loses value and falls out of favor, gold has tended to benefit as investors seek real assets. Gold prices have then been able to soar, just as we saw in the months following the financial crisis, eventually reaching an all-time high of $1,921 per ounce in September 2011. Gold is again glimmering with safe haven appeal & the Fear Trade, it seems, is in full force.

Gold Shorting Exhaustion

Futures trading is an exceedingly unforgiving game, with super-dangerous inherent leverage. The sole driver of the crazy movements in gold, in last few months has been US speculators’ extreme shorting of gold futures, which has battered gold prices around in the absence of investment demand. But this epic gold shorting looks exhausted.

New Gold Rush Cometh With Global Bond Market On Edge Of “Cliff”

Should we see capital flight from US & global bond markets, gold should see gains on a par with those in the 2nd half of the 1970s. Experts said that gold’s bubble had burst when it fell from $200 to $100 from Dec 1974 to Aug 1976. But as interest rates rose, gold rose more than 8 times in 3 years & 4 months, to $850 in January 1980.

U.S. Retirement Asset Bubble vs Physical Gold Investment

The values of Retirement Assets are based on the Fed & US Treasury propping up the stock & bond markets since 2008. Once the U.S. Dollar-Treasury-Stock Market Dam finally bursts, it will take down the values of all these so-called paper assets. However, the opposite will occur with the value of physical gold investment.

The Strong Season For Gold Buying Starts

The strong season in Gold is just getting underway, with this metal’s summer-doldrums seasonal low in place. Major income-cycle and cultural drivers from around the world lead to outsized gold demand surges. And gold’s best months of the year are nearing as Asian harvest buying ramps up followed by the fabled Indian wedding season’s arrival.

Crimea, The Fed, China And The Gold Price Pattern

While uncertainty around Ukrainian situation & Russia’s intentions has given gold prices an additional fillip, don’t expect this to continue. Ukraine and Crimea may prove to be a storm in a teacup. It is probably the US economy & China which will hold the key to gold’s path in the ensuing months.

JPMorgan Holds Highest Amount Of Physical Silver In History

JPMorgan realized that it was on the wrong side of the trade, after having discovered how tight the physical silver market was. Consequently, the bank had to crush the silver price with their HFT tricks in order to reverse the trend. By doing so, JPM could regain control over the silver market.

Gold And Silver Calls For Explosive Upside Is Misplaced

Before gold and silver can rally, they first have to stop going down. The contention here is that almost everyone’s focus is misplaced & the reasons why gold and silver remain at low levels are not being given their proper due. It has to do more with the battle for world supremacy than anything else.

Gold Outlook: Will Gold Bounce Back in 2014?

Will 2014 be a wonderful year for gold after a steep tumble in 2013 from its perch as a safe haven? The indications aren’t promising, considering the number of negative factors pushing against it. – As the old adage goes, “the cure for low prices is low prices”.

The Silver Bull Is Alive and Quite Well

If the silver bull market was over, we wouldn’t see SLV holders refusing to sell (unlike in the major gold ETF- GLD), Indians buying record amounts of silver, and retail investors hoarding silver bullion at historic levels.

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