Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Imports’

Falling Mine Supply will Trigger Panicked Gold Buying & Higher Gold Prices

Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply and demand fundamentals & imbalances in the paper gold market, the stage is set for corresponding increases in paper gold prices. As more & more paper gold holders turn from the paper market to obtain physical gold, which is already in short supply in the physical market, we’ll see the beginning of a price super-spike.

Why is India's Gold Demand, the Best Hope for Gold Prices

The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world’s top consumer of the precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummeled in 2016, but there are positive signs that India is recovering, with gold imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS.

Physical Gold Demand is Collapsing - Nothing Could be Further Away From The Truth

The idea that retail bullion sales represents global demand for physical gold and silver & that the demand for physical gold is collapsing is seeded in either ignorance or mal-intent. Nothing could be further from the truth. Retail demand at the margin has no affect on price other than maybe the price premiums in the coin market based on mint supply and retail demand.

Gold Bugs on Watch for Buy Signal & How Gold Prices React to Fed's Rate Hike

Despite gold being under pressure leading up to the next rate hike, Bank of America still sees prices rallying by around $200 by the end of the year. UBS and Goldman Sachs are also seeing opportunity for higher gold prices. Though sentiment conditions in the gold market have improved markedly & we are a lot closer to a contrarian gold buy signal than we were a couple of weeks ago, we’re not there yet.

Massive Debt Pain in China Could Be a Blessing for Gold Investors

Although the economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, the debt is causing a host of problems in China. The main reason many Chinese are buying gold is to preserve wealth against the backdrop of massive fiscal stimulus & lax credit conditions. Never has a big economy piled up so much debt so quickly without serious repercussions. It could be wise to take a lesson from Chinese investors & buy physical gold.

The Surprising Upside For Gold And Silver In 2017

Technically, all of the stars were aligned for a take-down of the gold price using paper derivative gold. But it’s easier to build a false narrative around easily observable data rather than look for the greater truths intentionally hidden from public purview. The gold and silver market is set up for an upside surprise & we are forecasting a better year for the metals in 2017 than in 2016..

Factors That Practically Guarantee Gold Prices to Rise in 2017

It probably comes as little shock that the leading catalyst for physical gold in 2017 is likely to come down to what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates. The Fed will hold a lot of weight on the movement of gold prices in 2017. Another major catalyst is going to be the Donald Trump presidency. But the final catalyst for gold prices is a real wildcard in 2017: India.

Will China & India's Falling Demand Impact Gold Prices? Can Central Bank Gold Demand Help?

The demand for gold has been weak in India & China. The cash crunch in India contributed to the falling demand. In an attempt to constrain the outflows of the Chinese yuan, China has curbed the import of gold. US federal debt is growing at a fast rate. When major central banks increase debt as a percentage of GDP, their gold holdings often rise – a positive for demand & gold prices.

Gold Treads Danger Zone - Yet Why Do Some Feel Optimistic?

The presence of considerable global economic, political, market risks and considering that the longer end of the yield curve and the sky-high USD have already tightened conditions, the Fed is likely to deliver a dovish hike later in December. This could mean the dollar & rates along the curve may slide lower & prompt technical traders to send gold back into $1,200-plus territory.

The Carnage in the Gold Sector Could Be Over

The rally in gold and silver has corrected hard which is not all that unusual for any bull market. The price of gold is approximately $200/oz lower than its June peak of $1375/oz. RSI is down to 20.63 which is the lowest it has been for some time. A reading below the ‘30’ level is considered to be oversold, so we can see that gold is extremely oversold and a bounce from here is not impossible.

India's Shift from Gold to Silver would Result in a Massive Jump in Silver Prices

India has been trying to reduce its demand for imported gold through a number of means & may soon permanently reduce gold imports. A return to silver for consumers in India may be on the cards. Even a small substitution from gold to silver would result in a massive increase in silver prices. A mere 10% reallocation from gold investment to silver in India would nearly double world silver demand.

Gold Bullion Flows Reverse Back into the West - What does it Mean?

U.S. has become a significant gold importer. Gold is flowing from vaults in London, Switzerland & even Dubai to the U.S. In May, U.S. imported over 50 times the monthly average amount of gold. Investor demand was the largest component of gold demand for Q1 and Q2 – the first time this has ever happened. This means that more U.S. investors are diversifying their assets into gold.

Supplies of Physical Gold are Tight - A Super Spike in Gold Prices is Coming

The key to seeing a gold-buying panic in advance is to follow the flows of physical gold. Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply & demand, there are increases in paper gold prices. As soon as demand begins to overwhelm supply, then it’s “game on” for significantly higher physical gold prices followed by the toppling of the inverted pyramid of paper gold contracts.

Surge in Smuggled Gold Hits Indian Gold Refiners, Gold Jewelers & Banks

Smuggled gold could account for over a third of demand this year in India – the world’s second-biggest buyer of gold – potentially costing the government over $1 billion in lost revenue. Gold refiners have less than a 1% margin. If smugglers offer 4 or 5% discounts, they have no choice but to close operations. All 32 refineries in the country have stopped buying dore until market conditions normalize.

Will India Revive It's Love Affair With Gold Anytime Soon?

India’s gold demand fell significantly in the first half of 2016. World Gold Council data show the combined demand for jewellery and investment at only 247 tonnes. Import during January-June was 248 tonnes, 42% lower than the corresponding period last year and lowest since 2009. Clearly, many variables are at work. Only time will tell if India’s love affair with gold revives!

Record Swiss Gold Flows Into US. Are Americans finally Acquiring a lot of Gold?

While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the United States imported a record amount of Swiss gold – 50 times more than their monthly average. Why the big change? Could this have had something to do with the huge gold price rise since the beginning of 2016? Are wealthy Americans finally acquiring a lot more gold?

Silver Takes the Gold Prize: Commodities Half Yearly Report 2016

Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled in May but have since rallied on the back of Brexit and with government bond yields in freefall. This has been highly constructive for gold and silver, as yields and precious metals tend to be inversely related. As for silver, some forecasters place it at between $25 and $32 an ounce by year’s end.

India's Gold Imports Drops 51% in May, Gold Demand Takes a Hit

Indian gold imports have tumbled for fourth straight month in May this year, while gold demand remains muted over the past several months. India’s gold imports during the month are believed to have dropped sharply by 51% year-on-year to 31 tonnes in May. But, when matched with the April ’16 imports of 22 tonnes, the monthly imports in May rose higher by over 40%.

China Embraces Gold In Advance Of Post-Dollar Era

To challenge the US dollar hegemony & increase its power in the global realm of finance, China has firmly embraced gold in its economy. With a staggering pace the government has developed the Chinese domestic gold market, stimulated private gold accumulation, increased its official gold reserves to ensure financial stability & support the internationalisation of the renminbi.

A Long-Standing Love Affair Between India And Gold

India has never experienced a bear market of any consequence in gold. Since 1970 the Indian rupee has lost 88.7% of its purchasing power compared to the U.S. dollar. But the people’s purchasing power has been maintained thanks to gold. Maybe that is why people are reluctant to give up gold for a piece of government paper. Westerners may have something to learn from India’s love affair with gold.

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