Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Market’

Renewed Buying in Gold Futures & GLD Shares Fuelling Gold's Next Upleg

With gold futures speculators’ collective bets no longer excessively bullish and holding back gold, that paves the way for major investment buying to resume. Meanwhile American stock investors have resumed heavy buying of GLD shares again, fueling this ETF’s big early-quarter holdings build equalling Q1’16’s massive jump that ignited gold’s young new bull.

Fearful Capital Turns to Gold and Silver - the Ultimate Financial Insurance

One can easily foresee the financial and political turmoil looming large just ahead. And, there is lots of that coming our way. Now is the time to be proactive in case the situation escalates, which seems to be unavoidable. Gold and silver have been acquired for centuries as a form of wealth preservation, as a long-term store of value and as safe-haven assets in such times.

Not 1, But 50 Amazing Proofs - The Secular Bull Market in Gold Will Continue

Gold’s bull market started in the year 2001, and after 4 years of correction from 2011 to 2015, the secular bull market is still intact. As the world is experiencing the burden of debt & sub mortgage crisis, which has the made the market illiquid & the bearish sentiment for gold is on extreme low. Gold on rise can be termed as the biggest surprise of 2016. Need Proof? Here are 50 of them.

Gold Jewelry Buying Expected to be Exceptionally Strong

Plentiful monsoon rains in India tend to drive up demand for gold & gold jewelry among rural, income-flush farmers, who make up a third of the country’s consumption of the yellow metal. Gold jewelry sales in India are expected to surge as much as 60% over last year, during this year’s festival season thanks to the fortuitously timed sharp drop in gold prices.

Gold Bull Market Intact Regardless of Short Term Price Gyrations

Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. Currently the fundamental drivers of gold are mixed, which makes a sideways move the most likely prospect, barring new developments. We remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly, and that the long term case for gold remains intact regardless of short term price gyrations.

Price of Gold Could Rise a Lot Higher - In Fact Double

There’s a difference between the narrative, which is what you’re being told, versus the reality of the economic data. It’s in no one’s interest ahead of the election to say the U.S. economy is a mess. If the flood of bad economic data continues, the Fed will almost certainly print more money or cut interest rates. And that could easily send the price of gold through the roof.

Gold may Spring a Surprise on Rising Uncertainty & a Slowing Global Economy

Over the long term, people have realised the benefit of portfolio diversification. Holdings in gold-backed ETFs were 2,051 metric tons by Oct. 14, the highest level since June 2013. In the latest gold and silver COT report, paper players made big strides in bringing the market back into balance & setting the stage for an eventual rebound. The gold market may surprise us again.

Has Gold Deviated from Long-Term Upward Trajectory or Again a Bout of Paper Manipulation?

Much of the recent selling has come from large-scale speculators operating in futures markets. Meanwhile, physical demand from retail investors, most importantly, hedge funds & other large-scale institutional investors has remained firm. When Chinese investors return, their buying alone should be enough to stabilize & re-launch gold on its long-term upward trajectory.

With a Trump Win, Gold Prices Could Soar Sharply to $1750 or even $2000

Citigroup has advised investors to sell stocks & bonds – And buy gold – BEFORE the election, if Donald Trump starts rising in the polls. Their reasoning is that if Donald Trump begins to lead in the polls, gold prices could move up sharply before the election, since markets tend to price-in any expected outcome. ABN Amro Sees $1,850 Gold Prices Following a Trump Win.

Gold Price And The Interest Rate Disconnection

We are entering a new phase in gold price action where expectations of Fed interest-rate policy becomes less important & other gold price drivers come to the fore. I believe the Fed will have little room to raise interest rates by anything more than a token increase. What’s more likely, the US & global economic news will continue to disappoint & this could be enough to support a rising gold price.

Gold Has No Reason To Fear The Fed's Potential Interest Rate Hike

A 25-basis-point move in September is not going to be disastrous for gold prices, which have risen almost 30% gains since the lows in December. I don’t think the gold market has anything to fear from U.S. monetary policy. Even if rates rise 1% this year, the important thing to remember is that real rates will still be negative and that is ultimately positive for gold.

Gold Prices Based on Historically Low Real Interest Rates - A Small Hike Won't Hurt It

Gold prices are up 26% so far in 2016 & heading into the fall the greater risk remains to the upside due to the tremendous amount of money sloshing through the system. The potential Fed rate hike this September will not hurt gold prices because gold prices are a function of historically low real interest rates. Also helping gold, is the dislocation in the currency markets, especially post-Brexit.

Issues that drove Gold Prices to all-time highs in 2011 Have Only Worsened

In 2011 there was an entire narrative around the gold market, when gold was at $1,900 & it was partly about US markets. The narrative in 2011 was that U.S. Federal Government on-balance sheet liabilities, at $16 trillion & the off-balance sheet liabilities of $55 trillion were unsustainable. Today, they are estimated at $19 trillion & $90 trillion respectively. Worsened enough?

Gold Equity Market Bull will be as Ferocious as the Bear from 2012 to 2015

Over the past 45 years there have been 7 bull cycles & 7 bear cycles with varying duration & gains. No bear market was as horrific as the one just experienced from Oct 2012 until mid-Dec 2015. Does that mean that the new gold market we are currently in will last longer and provide opportunity for even stronger gains than those experienced in previous bull cycles? Only time will tell.

Supplies of Physical Gold are Tight - A Super Spike in Gold Prices is Coming

The key to seeing a gold-buying panic in advance is to follow the flows of physical gold. Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply & demand, there are increases in paper gold prices. As soon as demand begins to overwhelm supply, then it’s “game on” for significantly higher physical gold prices followed by the toppling of the inverted pyramid of paper gold contracts.

Deutsche Bank Refuses Delivery Of Physical Gold Upon Demand

What was supposedly an ETC which promised physical delivery upon demand, is nothing more than yet another “paper only” play. Is the inability to deliver physical gold an incipient issue with Xetra-Gold, or Deutsche Bank, and if the latter is suddenly unable to satisfy even the smallest of delivery requests by retail clients, just how unprecedented is the global physical gold shortage?

Are Gold and Silver still Trending up or Vulnerable to some Profit-Taking Yet?

Before you rush to buy into gold-backed ETFs, it’s wise to note that there are signs of profit-taking in gold. Gold and silver tend to move together. Investors monitor the gold-to-silver ratio to assess how expensive or cheap silver is, relative to gold, currently seen at around 70 – near the upper end of the range between 45 and 80. This tells us that silver is still cheap compared to gold.

Future(s) Outlook For Gold Prices in 2017 Seems Sparkling

Any weakness in gold prices is expected to be shallow and short-lived. A declining dollar, along with slowing global growth as the IMF lowers world growth rates — and the possibility of recession in some countries — will cause gold to appreciate through the next year. And this appreciation will continue until underlying challenges are resolved.

Silver Price Dives while Gold Price is Motionless - What Gives?

Silver is in a different world. It has a long way farther to fall, before it catches down to the fundamentals. As speculators reduce their positions, the silver price falls a bit. The gold to silver ratio rose significantly this week. The gold market may not be screaming “buy” yet—today is not that day—but it’s no longer screaming “danger”.

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