Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Outlook’

Large Bearish Bets - A Strong Contrarian Indicator & Bullish Omen for Gold Futures

Big spec gold futures buying is coming soon, which will help catapult gold sharply higher again. It is already starting with initial short covering, but will soon expand into far-larger long buying as gold continues powering higher. After selling their longs to such low levels, these influential traders will need to buy big for months on end to restore normal positions. That’s great news for gold!

Gold Price Correlation With Federal Funds Rates Since 1971

Everyone assumes higher interest rates will devastate zero-yielding gold, leaving it far less attractive. This premise led investors to avoid gold like the plague, and speculators to short sell it at wild record extremes. But provocatively, history proves gold price thrives in Fed-rate-hike cycles. Higher rates are actually bullish for gold.

2015 Gold Outlook: What You Really Need to Know

Big banks gain a big benefit from the Fed driving their borrowing rate to zero. If gold were soaring, then the Fed would be less inclined to keep rates low, as it would be concerned that the dollar is purchasing less & inflation is returning. So banks are happy to have the gold price contained & the Fed is more likely to keep rates low.

Goldman: It's The Central Banks' Fault We Can't Be More Bearish On Gold

We’ve heard it all: snow, cold weather, hot weather, non one-time recurring, “one-time, non-recurring” charges, and even Bush. But when it comes to “excuses” for why one is wrong, this morning Goldman’s note “Central banks stall a more bearish gold outlook” absolutely takes the cake. Here is the jist of Damien Courvalin’s note.

Gold Outlook For 2015

Do not expect a major move higher in gold in the first half of 2015. Because the current monetary & economic environment, characterized by a rise in negative real rates & a weakening of inflation momentum, is not very gold friendly. The gold to silver ratio keeps on rising, which points as well to disinflation. All said, the bull market is still intact.

Gold Outlook: Will Gold Bounce Back in 2014?

Will 2014 be a wonderful year for gold after a steep tumble in 2013 from its perch as a safe haven? The indications aren’t promising, considering the number of negative factors pushing against it. – As the old adage goes, “the cure for low prices is low prices”.

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