Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Price Declines’

This is not 2008 – At least not for Gold Prices

Both, low energy prices & higher real interest rates are already reflected in the current gold prices. As longer-dated oil prices cannot remain below industry costs indefinitely, nor real interest rates rise much higher given a data dependent FED, this creates an asymmetry to gold prices, regardless of broader market normalization – or capitulation.

US Mint Sales of Gold Coins Fall In October After 234% Surge in Q3

In historical comparatives, demand for gold coins in October was 38th lowest by total weight and 56th lowest by coins counts for any month from January 2006 through present. October sales saw significant decline in demand for gold coins in 7 out of 10 years. In other words, October tends to be a more bearish month of U.S. Mint gold coins sales.

Gold Price Declines and the Grave Dancers

We regard the excessive grave dancing & the utter conviction with which gold is declared to be “doomed” as an outstanding contrary indicator. It means that a major trend change has to be very close. This is not to say that gold cannot fall further in the short term – but the long term outlook has greatly improved by the three waves of extreme bearish sentiment we have seen since 2013.

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