Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Price’

Gold Bull Market Intact Regardless of Short Term Price Gyrations

Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. Currently the fundamental drivers of gold are mixed, which makes a sideways move the most likely prospect, barring new developments. We remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly, and that the long term case for gold remains intact regardless of short term price gyrations.

Rate Hike Largely Priced into Gold and Silver - What about Rationality in Sell-off?

Could the FED finally raise rates before 2016 draws to a close? That sounds plausible in theory, but there are a number of factors that do not support a rate hike in the near term. But even if they do hike rates, this move is already largely priced into gold and silver. We should question the rationality of this sell off. After all, the gold price often moves higher along with interest rates.

Sellers of Physical Gold Did Not Help Crash Gold Prices - Then Who Did?

The total volume of the crash in excess of 1,000 tonnes of paper gold contracts, dumped on the market in a matter of hours, makes it pretty clear that something ‘fishy’ was going on. So the main question remains, who sold? Clearly, the futures market crash was NOT caused by sellers of physical gold. But China & Russia will love & use the buying opportunity.

The Stability Regarding Purchasing Power of Gold is Unprecedented

An often-perceived analysis in the gold community is that gold is the constant in our global economy. While there is no exact constant in economics, the stability of gold’s purchasing power is unprecedented. Not only on a gold standard the metal shows it’s constant nature, but also off the gold standard gold’s purchasing power is remarkably constant, albeit more volatile in the short term.

Gold Price And The Interest Rate Disconnection

We are entering a new phase in gold price action where expectations of Fed interest-rate policy becomes less important & other gold price drivers come to the fore. I believe the Fed will have little room to raise interest rates by anything more than a token increase. What’s more likely, the US & global economic news will continue to disappoint & this could be enough to support a rising gold price.

Why And How The US Fed Will Drive Gold Higher

After raising rates in Dec, the US Fed back-flipped on its aggressive interest rate policy earlier in the year. The US stock market nosedived by about 10% and Chinese debt issues worried investors. Gold & gold stocks went through the roof! Despite the stock market recently hitting all-time highs, the Fed kept delaying increasing rates. This ‘wait and see’ policy is causing a lot of uncertainty.

Will Silver Prices take off like a Rocket while Gold Prices Languish?

Why are junk bonds and equities not dropping commensurately? It’s crystal clear that if rates are truly moving up, then all assets will be repriced lower. So for the moment, the prices of the metals— silver more than gold—are driven by this Narrative.It would be strange to see the price of silver take off like a rocket while the price of gold languishes, moribund.

Gold Bears Won't Have Reason to Rejoice Even if Rates are Hiked

US data has been looking distinctly soft of late. If growth continues to tail off, then the case for a rate rise will weaken rather than strengthen, so it may be a question of now or never. The conventional thinking is that a rate rise will lead to a fall in the gold price. It may be that the rate rise that’s now supposed to put a brake on gold will have more of a temporary dampening effect.

Due to Financial Cancer of Debt, Devastation is Our Future- Gold the Only Remedy

The fact that demand for gold is soaring says a great deal about investors’ combined frame of mind these days. People are scared. I fear devastation is in our future. If central bankers had succeeded in their efforts, we would have no need for negative rates. There is simply too much debt (financial cancer) in the system to save it. And buyers of gold know this.

Gold Price Driven by Massive Speculation in Paper Gold

Speculation in paper gold is both an effect of the gold price and an important short-term driver of the gold price. It is therefore fair to say that although changes in GLD’s gold inventory don’t cause anything, they often reflect changes in speculative sentiment that at least on a short-term basis do have a significant influence on the gold price.

Does the Current Gold Price Justify the Big Gains in Gold Stocks?

Despite the 25% decline in the gold price since 2013 to $1,050, profit margins only fell by 12% as the industry responded by cutting costs and restructuring their operations. With gold now trading at $1,350 per ounce and AISC holding steady, net profit margins for the industry have increased from $220 to over $500 per ounce – an increase of 127% in just 7 months.

Strength of Gold Against Foreign Currencies Confirms Bull Market Status

If Gold is going up only because of a falling US$, that is a US$ bear market, not a Gold bull market. A Gold bull market is Gold rising against the majority of currencies. Gold’s strength in foreign currencies confirms its global bull market status and provides a hint that more gains for Gold in US$ terms are likely ahead. We view any weakness in the weeks ahead as a buying opportunity.

Gold Investing Justified By Paradigm Shifts In Politics And Markets

What needs to be considered is the future – that is riddled with uncertainty. What we do know, is that the growing negative sentiment towards our governments that have failed us both politically and economically, presents a need to safeguard wealth from the tides ahead. If you haven’t yet included gold in your portfolios, now is the time to do it.


As of month-end today, gold is up over 27% from its Dec-15 lows. This a major milestone – any time gold has managed a move of at least 25% off a major low, it has continued higher every single time with incremental gains ranging from 21%-412%, with the average totalling 175%. If CHFUSD breaks out soon, expect it to occur alongside fresh gold highs.

Record Swiss Gold Flows Into US. Are Americans finally Acquiring a lot of Gold?

While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the United States imported a record amount of Swiss gold – 50 times more than their monthly average. Why the big change? Could this have had something to do with the huge gold price rise since the beginning of 2016? Are wealthy Americans finally acquiring a lot more gold?

The 7 Signs That the Gold Market Remains Resilient

It is possible that gold and silver prices continue slipping, especially with futures expiration close-by. But the mildness of the pullbacks witnessed so far in 2016 are a testament to just how resilient gold has been. Buyers are stepping up to buy the dips rather than panic out of their positions. There’s a strong conviction in gold investors for the first time in 5 years, that gold’s new bull cycle has just started.

The Significance of the Massive Change in the Gold Market

The significance of the change in the gold market can be better seen by the average annual increase in total gold holdings during the 2009-2012 period which was 15 Moz compared to 25 Moz for the first half of 2016. If demand for gold continues as strong in the second part of the year, we could see upwards of 50 Moz move into these total gold holdings versus 45 Moz for the 2009-2012 period.

Gold and Silver Bulls Need to Climb The Great Wall of Worry

Confidence is slippery, even when you are a metals investor sitting atop the best performing assets of 2016. It doesn’t help when 4 years of a miserable bear market remains fresh in our memories. Any weakness in gold and silver prices & it can feel like they are ready to plunge. World events are unpredictable. In bull markets some of the biggest moves happen suddenly, when people least expect it.

The Worst Gold Bear is now the Most Convinced Bull

Less than one year ago, Dutch bank ABN AMRO has put itself on the map by being more bearish on gold than Goldman Sachs. ABN Amro has now released an update report & is now expecting the gold price to end 2017 at $1450/oz. That’s a 75% increase in target price. The downward spiral of the gold price has been broken, and the only way seems to be up.

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