Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Price’

How, What & Why India needs to do to Improvise it's Gold Market

The gold market in India is in a mess. Smuggling continues big time. Seizure of smuggled-in-gold barely accounts for 3% of volumes each year. Almost 90% of the gold in the markets is adulterated. So, can the situation be remedied? Yes, if there is political will, and the willingness to take a fresh look at gold markets. Here are the things that the government should do. Immediately.

For How Long will Gold and Silver Continue to be "Rigged Markets"?

The discussion surrounding the likelihood of gold and silver being “rigged markets” has been rendered moot by way of the countless flash crashes – More recently, the one in silver on Friday July 7. Had that flash crash occurred in stocks, they would have cancelled the trades. In the silver market, the damage done by the intervention was successful in destroying morale. How long will this continue?

Upside Turn in Stocks & Slam-down in Gold and Silver - Both may be FAKE

The recent inflection from skepticism to optimism could be the first step toward the stock market euphoria that we typically see at the end of bull markets & has been absent so far. People have been convinced that everything is wonderful right now & that stocks are going to go up forever. I don’t buy this. It wouldn’t be a total shock to me if stock markets are down 25% & gold is up 50% by October.

Gold and Silver OR Stocks - Choose Between High Risk or High Reward

While the gold price has a bit more cushion than silver, we can plainly see that both gold and silver are much closer to a bottom than the Dow Jones Index. The HIGH RISK, LOW REWARD easily goes to the Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index. While retail gold and silver sales have fallen significantly, as well as their sentiment, the fundamentals point to a LOW RISK & HIGH REWARD… if we are patient.

A Bearish Tilt to the Gold and Silver Market - A Great Risk-Reward Setup

Gold is about to see the 50 DMA above the 100 DMA above the 200 DMA. This golden cross setup is seemingly timed to catch people off-guard given the poor sentiment we see now, yet will trigger buy signals for technical traders & algos. And if you think the stock market won’t be allowed to drop because it’s never allowed to drop, ask yourself WHO has not been allowing it to drop for the last 8 years?

Central Bank Asset Purchases Inflate Stock & Real Estate, but Cap Gold and Silver Prices

The Central banks bought a staggering $1.5 trillion in assets in the first five months of the year to keep the economy from imploding. This massive increase in Central bank asset purchases is a last ditch effort to prop up the market & cap the gold price. They will likely have to increase their level of buying even more. As it goes exponential… then we know the END IS NEAR.

This Signal Predicts a Major Bull Market Move in Gold Prices

Gold prices broke a nearly six year-long downward sloping trend line that goes back to its all-time high of $1921 in August of 2011. A breach of this trend line is likely significant; historically, breaking above a five year long downward sloping trend line has signaled major bull market moves in gold prices (30% or more) including 2001, 1993 and 1985.

Why is Gold Up, is Wrong Question. Ask, Why isn't Gold higher, Around $1550?

Why is Gold Up is the wrong question. We should be asking: Why isn’t Gold higher? The answer to that question will likely come when the Fed decides to hike or not hike next week. And how Gold reacts. If you believe like us that what the Fed does is mattering less and less, than a hike will be a dip to buy. Gold is becoming focused more on the longer term problems enveloping us domestically & globally.

Investors Should Prepare for Flight to Gold - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank published a special report on the global gold sector, stating “investors should prepare for a flight to gold” in the uncertain global climate. It also emphasizes the importance of looking for the gold stocks that offer better value, growth or leverage. Concerns over terrorism, probes into Trump’s links to Russia and doubts that the Fed will raise rates in June may drive investors to gold.

Evidence on Gold Price Manipulation is very Clear - Time to Buy is NOW

The big western banks have a monopoly on gold prices even if they do not have a monopoly on physical gold. But that could be about to change. Russia and China are not only building up physical reserves and exploring for more, they are building trading systems that allow for price discovery and leveraged trading in gold. Soon, the physical gold market will regain the upper hand as a price maker.

Paper Gold Price is not the Real Price of Gold

The paper gold market sets the gold price – the paper price that the false gold market trades at. That has very little to do with the price of gold which is what the physical market would trade at if there was not a manipulated paper market. But buyers & sellers are not concerned about the real price of gold. Because they have no intention of owning the physical since they don’t understand its function.

Americans Pawn Gold To Go Further Into Debt: US Gold Scrap Market Drying Up

It is quite unfortunate that Americans have pawned off their best asset only to go further into debt. U.S. gold scrap supply in 2016 (58.7 metric tons) is nearly two and a half times less than it was in 2010 (143 metric tons). Americans pawned off a great deal more gold in 2010 when the price was lower at $1,225 compared to $1,267 in 2016. Which means, the U.S. gold scrap supply market is drying up.

What is the Gold Market Really Looking Forward to these Days?

Despite all the uncertainty, rising war tensions, Brexit & the possibility of the French following suit, that would have usually been enough to send the gold price skyward, the gold market seems to shrug off these developments, keeping its eyes focused on the tenor of U.S. monetary policy, particularly the prospect for interest rates.

Irrefutable Reasons for Gold Price to Rise to Unthinkable Levels

The gold price is primarily a reflection of the change of value of the paper money. If paper money is debased due to money printing or credit extension, the gold price measured in dollars or euro will increase. Thus, gold as a rule doesn’t go up in price but the value of paper money goes down. Here are some factors that will push the gold price to unthinkable levels measured in paper money.

High Uncertainty Makes This Completely Certain: High Gold Prices

Gold prices tend to fare well when there is a lot of uncertainty around. In today’s environment where you have got a lot of uncertainty, taking a bit of money off the table and putting it into something that will protect you, seems to make sense. Gold is a safe haven asset and in times of trouble it does tend to deliver the kind of insurance qualities that people look to it for.

Analysis - The Macroeconomic Drivers of the Gold Price

There are essentially two types of gold price drivers worth discussing: measurable ones and those that cannot be measured. Most of the “measurable” macroeconomic fundamentals that are considered important drivers of the gold price are either mixed/neutral or bearish at the moment. However, there are good reasons to believe that several of them will turn gold-bullish.

Gold Price Drivers will turn Unequivocally Bullish on This

Once central banks try to arrest a decline in asset prices and a contraction in aggregate economic activity, a great many of the fundamental drivers of the gold price that look neutral or even bearish at the moment will turn unequivocally bullish. Some market participants are busy accumulating physical gold in spite of the fact that the macro-economic fundamentals are not yet bullishly aligned.

Investors Bullish on Gold are Back - Buy Before the Mania Sets In

With inflation picking up and the focus on political risk increasing, gold bugs (investors who are bullish on gold) are back. Inflation expectations are now relatively well-established and whilst there are various factors to unravel over the course of 2017, we expect it to remain an important part of our portfolios in what could prove to be a tricky year.

As Inflation Expectations rise, Gold looks more Attractive to Investors

It just might be that inflation expectations are suddenly on the rise, as financial markets get a grip on the Trump administration’s economic and trade policies. As inflation expectations rise, the real rate of interest moves lower and lower – making gold look increasingly more attractive. And this, along with technical factors and market psychology, is pushing gold prices higher.

Why is India's Gold Demand, the Best Hope for Gold Prices

The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world’s top consumer of the precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummeled in 2016, but there are positive signs that India is recovering, with gold imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS.

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