Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Prices’

Opportunities to Buy Gold Cheap Dwindling - Watch-Out for this Indicator

The trend seems to be reversing: gold is up over 20% since its December 2015 low of $1,050/oz. and over 10% since the beginning of 2017. That means opportunities to get gold “on the cheap” may be dwindling, as the most recent price hike to $1,275/oz. this week indicates. One technical indicator has proved extraordinarily reliable in forecasting larger trend changes. Here it is.

Gold Prices Can Test $2,000 in 18 months on Weak Dollar & Geo-political Tensions

Part of the bullish case for gold prices is an emerging distrust towards U.S. geopolitical behavior & accelerating physical gold purchasing in the rest of the world. While some may be discussing the dollar or equities’ impact on gold prices, the driving factor behind the metal’s price will become “the loss in trust of leadership and governments and financial markets.

Rising Gold Prices & Gold Demand in India - A Major Cause for Optimism

India’s citizens are reportedly turning to gold as a safe haven amid doubts about paper money. It’s actually unusual to see India’s demand growing when gold prices are going up. The fact that prices and demand are rising in tandem could signal an important and positive shift in fundamentals — watch for April import figures in a few weeks to see if the trend continues.

Analysis - The Macroeconomic Drivers of the Gold Price

There are essentially two types of gold price drivers worth discussing: measurable ones and those that cannot be measured. Most of the “measurable” macroeconomic fundamentals that are considered important drivers of the gold price are either mixed/neutral or bearish at the moment. However, there are good reasons to believe that several of them will turn gold-bullish.

Report on Currency Manipulation Expected to be Bullish for Gold Prices

The US Treasury report on currency manipulation was ordered by Donald Trump to address the issue of countries manipulating their currencies. The report is expected to have a strong impact on the currency markets. The most bullish outcome for gold prices would be if the report actually named a big country a currency manipulator, as it could trigger risk-off trading which would benefit bullion.

Definitely No Dearth of Catalysts for Gold & Gold ETFs

Friday’s rally in gold brought the ETFs close to their 200-day moving averages & year-to-date gains of just under 9%. Political risk is seen as a potential catalyst for gold & gold ETFs. Gold prices could move modestly higher with some help from emerging markets, namely China and India. However, the dollar has recently retreated in noticeable fashion, helping aid gold’s ascent along the way.

Negative Real Rates to Drive Gold Prices Higher Despite Fed Hikes

With arguably the two biggest drivers of the gold price trending in the yellow metal’s favor, gold prices are likely to go higher. Although the dollar could rise if Washington implements some structural reform, real rates aren’t headed higher anytime soon based on the Fed’s actions. If past is prologue, as inflation rises over the coming months, gold will do very well.

Gold Prices Search for Support while Silver Prices Test Resistance

Gold and silver are still in the same range established within the previous top and bottom. However, silver again has something to boast of, this metal triggered the long-term resistance of the Descending Broadening Wedge at $18.05 that started last summer. It is an important confirmation that the long-term correction could be over soon.

India's Obsession & President Trump to Boost Gold Demand

The return of physical gold demand in India after two successive droughts is a huge cushion for international gold prices and with the ongoing wedding season and the upcoming list of festivals, the prospect of a further rise in gold demand looks bright. Appreciation in the Indian rupee has come as a blessing in disguise for buyers who were postponing gold purchases.

Paper Gold Trading Market Continues To Depress Physical Gold Prices

The total amount of paper gold trading done in 2016 equaled 243,000 metric tons. This is 233 times the amount of paper gold traded for each ounce of physical gold purchased. Also 76 times higher than the 103 million oz of world gold mine supply. What would happen to the physical gold prices if traders purchased physical gold instead of the millions of contracts traded on the exchanges.

Gold Bullion Investment will keep Rising on Political & Economic Factors

In the near- to medium- term as it is becoming clearer to investors that, while there may not be a collapse in the financial system, clearly the present interest rate environment, global economic growth profile, levels of unemployment and underemployment, and political turmoil globally are all factors that warrant owning at least some gold bullion as a portfolio diversifier.

How Do a Nation’s Gold Reserves Affect its Economy?

Gold reserves is a wide topic and there are many subjects to be discussed. For instance, there must be connection among gold trade, gold reserves and gold prices. What are the effects of gold prices on governments reserved gold? and the most important question, what will be the impact after the end of raw gold? In general, I would like to sum up the main ideas of that topic.

Are Gold ETFs Gearing Up for a Rally on the New-found Optimism?

The inflationary outlook is finally looking up in the developed economies. Political risks in Europe including Brexit worries, French elections and talks of Scotland’s independence vote have brightened the prospects for higher gold prices. So, investors intending to profit out of the new-found optimism in the gold space may consider gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares GLD, etc.

Falling Mine Supply will Trigger Panicked Gold Buying & Higher Gold Prices

Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply and demand fundamentals & imbalances in the paper gold market, the stage is set for corresponding increases in paper gold prices. As more & more paper gold holders turn from the paper market to obtain physical gold, which is already in short supply in the physical market, we’ll see the beginning of a price super-spike.

As Inflation Expectations rise, Gold looks more Attractive to Investors

It just might be that inflation expectations are suddenly on the rise, as financial markets get a grip on the Trump administration’s economic and trade policies. As inflation expectations rise, the real rate of interest moves lower and lower – making gold look increasingly more attractive. And this, along with technical factors and market psychology, is pushing gold prices higher.

Stronger Demand & Weaker US Dollar To Push Gold Prices Higher

The peaking of US real yields and the downward pressure building on the US dollar are positives for gold prices. Meanwhile, we expect global jewellery demand & investor demand to pick up in line with the overall improvement in the global economy and in gold demand centres in particular. It would be the first time in five years that demand will be higher than supply.

Why is India's Gold Demand, the Best Hope for Gold Prices

The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world’s top consumer of the precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummeled in 2016, but there are positive signs that India is recovering, with gold imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS.

Why is the Gold Market Sanguine about Rising US Interest Rates?

Why is the gold market being sanguine about rising U.S. interest rates? Rising U.S. inflation and a peak in U.S. dollar strength may mean that the traditional impact of a U.S. monetary tightening cycle may be less than usual. What the gold market is currently signalling is that while U.S. interest rate rises are still a bit of a headwind, they may not be enough to offset some compelling tailwinds.

Any Global Event could send Gold Prices Soaring, Add a fall in Mine Supply to the Woes

The gold mining industry remains challenged by the legacy of fewer discoveries & most of those discoveries are of lower ore grades. Tight economics, quirky legal & regulatory environments in many countries hamper gold production. Add it all up & you have a recipe for falling production. Geopolitical tensions & uncertainty are rising around the world. Any global event could send gold prices soaring.

Rate Hike Priced-in, Gold Prices to Rise as Fed Clings to Status Quo Later

One of the most important factors that will continue to impact post-election investor behavior will be the Fed’s rate hike trajectory in 2017. While the March rate hike has most likely been priced into the current weak gold prices, further rate hikes, to a large extent, depend on US economic data and the Trump administration’s policies. Gold prices will rise on the Fed’s clinging to the Status Quo.

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