Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Rally’

Gold Prices will Rise Once the Rate-Hike Obsessed Sellers are Out of the Way

After a rip-roaring first half, gold prices are plunging as we enter the home stretch of 2016. Gold futures are sitting near breakeven as we begin the new trading week. But when it comes to gold’s longer-term prospects, all is not lost. Even mainstream analysts are preparing for a bounce in gold prices once the highly-anticipated December rate hike is out of the way.

The New Gold and Silver Forecasts - Alternative Scenarios

The prospect of Fed rate hikes will weigh on gold and silver prices. As soon as Fed rate hikes for 2016 and 2017 are fully priced in, we expect gold and silver prices to rally again because of higher demand from investors. But if Trump becomes President and/or if investor sentiment deteriorates sharply, this would result in sharply higher gold and silver prices sooner.

Timeline For Gold Price Movements & The Next Gold Price Rally

It’s possible that gold could trade as low as $1285 and back near its 50-day moving average before bottoming. This area has proven as support all year. Expect a renewed rally in August back to near, but likely not exceeding much, the highs of late June & early July. Something between $1370 – $1390. Another tumble in mid-late Sept & finally, a breakout to new 2016 highs in Oct and Nov.

Is This The Critical Threshold For The Gold Rally To Continue?

10-year TIPS yield briefly went negative last week & the current yield is just 3 bps. TIPS yields have fallen around 75 basis points since the beginning of the year. This decline in yield has been accompanied by a gold rally from $1060 to $1342. This negative correlation between TIPS yields and gold prices has been persistent since 2003. TIPS yields will probably be negative if gold rallies above $1400.

Gold and Silver Pullback Before US Jobs Data - But Brexit Weighs on Fed

I am beginning to think the gold rally is running out of steam and may be due for a pullback. We need some fresh impetus to continue higher…Unless more dire news comes out of the UK (Brexit aftereffects) or elsewhere, I suspect there may be some profit taking ahead of the weekend. However the focus now shifts to Friday’s [US jobs] NFP print.

Could $1,900 Price of Gold Be a Reality in Wake of Brexit

The price of gold soared in the wake of the Brexit vote, going as high as $1,350 on Friday before settling back slightly. But there are indications that a lot more factors than just short-term, knee-jerk safe-haven buying are pushing the price of gold up. That means this may be more than a reactionary spike in the market. We’re going to see a whole lot more upside in the days ahead.

Gold Rush Will End - Irrespective of Whether Brexit Or Bremain

An “In” vote is seen as quickly unwinding gold’s 5% gain in June, as appetite for risk rises. And while some see a “Leave” result as a risk-off event that could see gold rally, others see lower prices if the dollar rises & oil falls. Gold may also fall as it can be used as a source of cash to cover losses elsewhere. Sharp declines in equities could push investors to liquidate gold positions to free up capital.

Where's Gold Headed? That's Easy! To Goldman's Next "Short Gold" Stop Loss

It took just two and a half months for Goldman to get stopped out of its short gold recommendation, on April 29, when its the price soared above $1,300 breaching Goldman’s stop. Goldman admits being wrong, but still remains short. We sure would love to know just one thing: What is Goldman’s next stop loss, because that is where gold is really headed next.

Here's How The Dollar Breakdown Could Propel Gold Prices To New Highs

The US dollar has not only fuelled the gold rally, it’s also slammed the U.S. Dollar Index back toward early 2015 levels. If the dollar slips below its 2015 lows, it runs the risk of a much bigger drawdown. And that’s exactly what may be seen soon. A weekly close at these levels will leave the Dollar Index with one foot in the grave. Naturally, this is bullish for gold prices.

What Most Gold Bugs Don’t Understand

The super-spike in gold prices will not come from any of the obvious sources but from an unexpected source. It could have nothing to do with gold, It could be a war or a pandemic that frightens people into safeguarding wealth. A single snowflake is so small you never see it coming but can turn a seemingly stable snowpack into a roaring avalanche. Once that begins, there’s no stopping it.

No One Believes in Gold. Here's Why It Will Keep Rising

While gold and miners continue to consolidate, we’re beginning to see new trading setups emerge on the long side. The rise in gold prices won’t be picture-perfect. Expect wild swings and plenty of shakeouts. Comeback moves are never clean or easy. But they are powerful—and they can put a lot of money in your pocket in a very short amount of time.

Massive Gold Investment Buying Overpowers Speculation & A New Bull Market Is Born

The magnitude of Gold investment buying seen so far this year is exceedingly bullish! Nothing like it has been witnessed since early 2009, when hedge funds flooded into gold after 2008’s once-in-a-century stock panic. Since investors have so aggressively taken the gold buying baton from gold futures speculators, the odds are stellar a new bull market in gold has been born!

Gold and the US Monetary Base Signal the Greatest Depression

When the US monetary base gets too big relative to the gold price (& US gold reserves), then market forces seek to correct the situation. The lack of confidence in banks will be a critical part of the coming gold rally. Remember that if we were to get a 100% gold backing of the US monetary base, based on current US official gold reserves, gold would have to be trading in excess of $15 000.

Is a Bull Market Quietly Gathering Strength in Gold?

Is the resumption of the bull market in gold, that so many have patiently awaited for years quietly, gathering strength under our noses? Expect a $50 gold rally to around $1280. I am somewhat open to the possibility that gold will blast off, once above $1280 without looking back, leaving in the dust all who were hoping to accumulate bullion & mining shares on weakness.

Rate Hike Or No - The Fed Will Not Kill Gold

The Fed either raises rates by 25 basis points in December, or it doesn’t. Both scenarios are actually bullish for gold. Doing nothing is good for gold for obvious reasons. But if they actually do hike, the gold market has already discounted the rate increase, likely factoring in substantially more than 25 basis points.

American Futures Speculators - The Primary Driver Of Gold Is Bullish

Gold’s primary driver in recent years has been the collective positions of American futures speculators. Their hyper-leveraged bets have given them outsized influence on gold prices & today their gold futures bets are very bearish. When this selling reverses into buying, it has the potential to fuel a sharp & major gold rally.

Too Many People Are Still Bullish On Gold - A Bearish Sign.

When it comes to sentiment, the gold market is built on shaky foundations. When everyone thinks the same thing, they are often all wrong. Overall sentiment in gold is more bullish compared to the the last few years. There is a certain amount of bearishness needed to spark a gold rally comparable to the summer of 2013.

Gold Futures Short Covering Rally

In the past, speculator short covering frenzies have pushed gold high enough to ignite new long-side buying by speculators. If this next short covering gold rally coincides with the lofty US stock markets and/or parabolic US dollar finally rolling over, there will be a big resurgence in gold investment demand way beyond speculator short covering.

There’s More to the Gold Rally Than European Market Fears

You’ve probably read that gold’s breakout is resultant of what’s currently happening in Europe, but there’s much more to the story. If the dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times, central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute.

Elliott Wave Charts Point to Shocking Counter-Trend for Gold

The dollar has had a major run since May & we’re in the very latter stages of a five-wave rally from the May low. Just as gold had a five-wave decline and came into a low and is now due for a big B-wave rally. Something similar could be said for the dollar, but in the opposite direction. A gold rally is likely to unfold over several months.

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