Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Rally’

Gold Investment Demand to rise on Inflation & Pent-up Selling in Red-Hot Stocks & US Dollar

Stock investors owning essentially-zero gold exposure, have vast room to buy again when the wildly-overvalued stock markets inevitably roll over. Gold investment demand was triggered in 2016 by post-Fed-rate-hike stock selling delayed until January for tax reasons. Incentives to hold until January are far greater this year than most, since 2017 may see lower tax rates thanks to Trump.

Reasons for Silver Demand to Explode have never been Stronger

The reasons for silver demand to explode – amidst an environment of verified peak production, and historically low above-ground, available for sale inventories, have never, in my very strong view, been stronger. Which is why, I might add, the opportunity to make a year-end tax swap, at an historically high gold/silver ratio of 69, may make sense to many investors.

Time For Gold To Really Shine! Should You Dare Catch The Falling Knife?

The bullish case for gold does not just rest on the direction of the dollar. Gold is also an, “investment in monetary policy failure,” or at least a hedge against it. Technicals & sentiment have again aligned to create a terrific opportunity to take advantage of what could be early stages of a major shift in long-term trend of outperformance by financial assets over real assets.

Recent Gold Market Moves Indicate a Wicked Gold Rally in the Making

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the extremely low levels (in the low 20s) and is strongly hinting bottoms for gold and silver. The sentiment numbers are telling me that there is a wicked gold rally coming. On Monday, when I get a look at the COT report, I will know for sure. Keep your eyes open as we move toward year-end. The fireworks are going to be incendiary.

This Confirms the Gigantic Potential of the Next Gold Price Rally

When you calculate the peak gold price from 1980 of $850 & adjust it to official inflation, you get a gold price of about $2,500. That’s the low-end as a new prediction. Not every cycle comes up with a huge rise. Especially the long-lasting bear markets brought the gold price weaker tops. The cycle we’re in now is a secular uptrend which gives the gold price a gigantic potential.

Gold Prices will Rise Once the Rate-Hike Obsessed Sellers are Out of the Way

After a rip-roaring first half, gold prices are plunging as we enter the home stretch of 2016. Gold futures are sitting near breakeven as we begin the new trading week. But when it comes to gold’s longer-term prospects, all is not lost. Even mainstream analysts are preparing for a bounce in gold prices once the highly-anticipated December rate hike is out of the way.

The New Gold and Silver Forecasts - Alternative Scenarios

The prospect of Fed rate hikes will weigh on gold and silver prices. As soon as Fed rate hikes for 2016 and 2017 are fully priced in, we expect gold and silver prices to rally again because of higher demand from investors. But if Trump becomes President and/or if investor sentiment deteriorates sharply, this would result in sharply higher gold and silver prices sooner.

Timeline For Gold Price Movements & The Next Gold Price Rally

It’s possible that gold could trade as low as $1285 and back near its 50-day moving average before bottoming. This area has proven as support all year. Expect a renewed rally in August back to near, but likely not exceeding much, the highs of late June & early July. Something between $1370 – $1390. Another tumble in mid-late Sept & finally, a breakout to new 2016 highs in Oct and Nov.

Is This The Critical Threshold For The Gold Rally To Continue?

10-year TIPS yield briefly went negative last week & the current yield is just 3 bps. TIPS yields have fallen around 75 basis points since the beginning of the year. This decline in yield has been accompanied by a gold rally from $1060 to $1342. This negative correlation between TIPS yields and gold prices has been persistent since 2003. TIPS yields will probably be negative if gold rallies above $1400.

Gold and Silver Pullback Before US Jobs Data - But Brexit Weighs on Fed

I am beginning to think the gold rally is running out of steam and may be due for a pullback. We need some fresh impetus to continue higher…Unless more dire news comes out of the UK (Brexit aftereffects) or elsewhere, I suspect there may be some profit taking ahead of the weekend. However the focus now shifts to Friday’s [US jobs] NFP print.

Could $1,900 Price of Gold Be a Reality in Wake of Brexit

The price of gold soared in the wake of the Brexit vote, going as high as $1,350 on Friday before settling back slightly. But there are indications that a lot more factors than just short-term, knee-jerk safe-haven buying are pushing the price of gold up. That means this may be more than a reactionary spike in the market. We’re going to see a whole lot more upside in the days ahead.

Gold Rush Will End - Irrespective of Whether Brexit Or Bremain

An “In” vote is seen as quickly unwinding gold’s 5% gain in June, as appetite for risk rises. And while some see a “Leave” result as a risk-off event that could see gold rally, others see lower prices if the dollar rises & oil falls. Gold may also fall as it can be used as a source of cash to cover losses elsewhere. Sharp declines in equities could push investors to liquidate gold positions to free up capital.

Where's Gold Headed? That's Easy! To Goldman's Next "Short Gold" Stop Loss

It took just two and a half months for Goldman to get stopped out of its short gold recommendation, on April 29, when its the price soared above $1,300 breaching Goldman’s stop. Goldman admits being wrong, but still remains short. We sure would love to know just one thing: What is Goldman’s next stop loss, because that is where gold is really headed next.

Here's How The Dollar Breakdown Could Propel Gold Prices To New Highs

The US dollar has not only fuelled the gold rally, it’s also slammed the U.S. Dollar Index back toward early 2015 levels. If the dollar slips below its 2015 lows, it runs the risk of a much bigger drawdown. And that’s exactly what may be seen soon. A weekly close at these levels will leave the Dollar Index with one foot in the grave. Naturally, this is bullish for gold prices.

What Most Gold Bugs Don’t Understand

The super-spike in gold prices will not come from any of the obvious sources but from an unexpected source. It could have nothing to do with gold, It could be a war or a pandemic that frightens people into safeguarding wealth. A single snowflake is so small you never see it coming but can turn a seemingly stable snowpack into a roaring avalanche. Once that begins, there’s no stopping it.

No One Believes in Gold. Here's Why It Will Keep Rising

While gold and miners continue to consolidate, we’re beginning to see new trading setups emerge on the long side. The rise in gold prices won’t be picture-perfect. Expect wild swings and plenty of shakeouts. Comeback moves are never clean or easy. But they are powerful—and they can put a lot of money in your pocket in a very short amount of time.

Massive Gold Investment Buying Overpowers Speculation & A New Bull Market Is Born

The magnitude of Gold investment buying seen so far this year is exceedingly bullish! Nothing like it has been witnessed since early 2009, when hedge funds flooded into gold after 2008’s once-in-a-century stock panic. Since investors have so aggressively taken the gold buying baton from gold futures speculators, the odds are stellar a new bull market in gold has been born!

Gold and the US Monetary Base Signal the Greatest Depression

When the US monetary base gets too big relative to the gold price (& US gold reserves), then market forces seek to correct the situation. The lack of confidence in banks will be a critical part of the coming gold rally. Remember that if we were to get a 100% gold backing of the US monetary base, based on current US official gold reserves, gold would have to be trading in excess of $15 000.

Is a Bull Market Quietly Gathering Strength in Gold?

Is the resumption of the bull market in gold, that so many have patiently awaited for years quietly, gathering strength under our noses? Expect a $50 gold rally to around $1280. I am somewhat open to the possibility that gold will blast off, once above $1280 without looking back, leaving in the dust all who were hoping to accumulate bullion & mining shares on weakness.

Rate Hike Or No - The Fed Will Not Kill Gold

The Fed either raises rates by 25 basis points in December, or it doesn’t. Both scenarios are actually bullish for gold. Doing nothing is good for gold for obvious reasons. But if they actually do hike, the gold market has already discounted the rate increase, likely factoring in substantially more than 25 basis points.

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