Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Stocks’

Gold Prices Poised for an Upside Explosion after Paper Gold Bear Raids Failed

Gold seems poised to resume its march to $1,300 after the paper gold bear raids of late June. Fundamentals are stronger than ever for gold prices. A weak dollar is the Fed’s only chance for more inflation. And that means a higher dollar price for gold. Geopolitical risks are piling up from North Korea, to Syria, to the South China Sea. Get ready for an explosion to the upside in gold prices.

Gold Prices have Beaten the Stock Market so far this Century

The price of gold has outperformed the S&P 500 Index so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions, both of them resulting in a loss of around 40 percent. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, boosting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.

Momentum in Gold Stocks Building for an Exceptionally Strong Season

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality as their price action mirrors that of their primary driver, gold. And since gold stocks have so seriously lagged gold in 2017, their upside potential in this year’s autumn rally is exceptional. That’s already begun in July, proving sentiment is starting to shift away from excessive bearishness. Momentum is building for a far-better-than-average strong season.

Potential Catalysts Forming a Great Scenario for Gold Prices

The continuous printing of money, a weak dollar and negative real interest rates – all make a great scenario for gold prices. Another potential catalyst for higher gold prices may be the theater surrounding the hiking of the debt ceiling in Washington. We’re also in the seasonal pattern for gold prices where it’s usually from here up to the Chinese New Year, a succession of higher highs.

Powerful Upleg in Gold and Silver Believed Imminent

The significant increase in Large Spec long positions this past week in gold and silver from a very low level might be cause of concern to some, since it of course increases the risk of a reaction in these metals. Also in the face of a continued albeit incremental rise in the prices of gold and silver, the Large Specs have suddenly realized their mistake & are scrambling to get back on board.

Alarming Rise in Global Debt Levels to wake up Gold from Slumber

The medium- to long-term investment case for gold, I believe, looks even brighter. Many unsettling risks loom on the horizon—not least of which is a record amount of global debt—that could potentially spell trouble for the investor who hasn’t adequately prepared with some allocation in a “safe haven. Paying down this debt will not be easy. Another crisis could be in the works.

Dollar's Long-term Downtrend will have Positive Impact on Gold Prices

The charts for the dollar index continue to look grim. On the 8-month chart we can see it dropping away beneath a parabolic downtrend that is accelerating to the downside. If this parabolic downtrend continues to force the dollar lower it should have a positive impact on the gold price, although it hasn’t thus far. Further significant weakness in the dollar should of course be bullish for gold and silver.

Fundamentals in place for Gold with Fed Tightening amid Unjustified Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500 Index has reached new, all-time highs. While the current stock market does not have the same feeling of mania seen before the tech bust, in the context of an economy that struggles to achieve 2% growth, we struggle to justify current stock market valuations – and remember, the Fed is tightening. Gold should also benefit if the US dollar trend seen so far in 2017 continues.

The Gold Bull Market Appears to have Much More Room to Run

The gold price turnaround last year, marked the end of the cyclical bear market. The rally in the precious metals sector has probably only just begun. Based on past bull markets, it looks like we’re very much in the early days of our bull market. Also consider the current market drivers for gold and miners. Global debt levels, the erosion of the dollar are also among the serious factors at play here.

Warning Bells to Prepare for the Worst - Preserve Wealth with Gold

U.S. debt levels are higher now than they’ve ever been, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Loose monetary policy has artificially inflated stock prices despite weak economic growth. Instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers. Stocks appear to be overvalued right now, in turn boosting the safe-haven investment case for gold.

I Remain Bullish on Both, but Prefer Physical Gold to Gold Stocks

Gold stocks will also respond to increasing gold prices. But ultimately, a gold stock typically represents a stake in a mining company, not the physical gold it mines. Of course, I remain bullish on both. But a rapid increase in demand from Middle East Muslims could easily ignite the fuse for gold prices, and premiums, to scream higher. Buy physical gold bullion before they do.

This Signal Predicts a Major Bull Market Move in Gold Prices

Gold prices broke a nearly six year-long downward sloping trend line that goes back to its all-time high of $1921 in August of 2011. A breach of this trend line is likely significant; historically, breaking above a five year long downward sloping trend line has signaled major bull market moves in gold prices (30% or more) including 2001, 1993 and 1985.

Here's what will Boost or Smash Gold Prices in a Major Way

Since 2016 began, physical gold and gold stocks have been pretty solid investments, with physical gold prices gaining about 19% and numerous gold stocks rising by well over 100%. This outperformance is what’s been attracting investors to gold and gold stocks. But can it continue? Here the factors that are most likely to influence the movement of gold prices in the near term.

When will Equities and Gold Begin to Change Places?

In our view, Bullard has signaled the approaching demise of the Trump inflation trade. The equity markets have not yet got the memo. In the midst of a manic bubble, all news is still good news. The prop under the run up in stocks and the narrative behind the correction in gold are fading. We think equities and gold will soon begin to change places.

Historically the Best Assurance for Higher Gold Prices - Debt & Inflation

It is our opinion that the situation today best mirrors 1973, when gold prices gained 134% & gold miners rose 205%, rather than 2008. 1973 was spurred by overwhelming debt and inflation. It is no secret that the world’s governments will continue printing money to fund growth & to service debt. History is favoring a similar situation & gold will be the safe haven from inflation & uncertainty.

Forced Selling Commences: Gold Prices to Soar on Inflation & Other Crises

It will get bloody as forced selling commences & panic selling will ensue before the epic rise begins. Even if interest rate hikes remain a headwind for gold, investors still need to remember that real rates, will remain low for a long time. This time when inflation starts to show up, & believe me, it will, they won’t be able to fight it by raising rates. I don’t think the Fed is going to get ahead of inflation.

Is Silver Repeating its 2008 Historic Moves Again in 2017? If so, Buy Silver on Dips

History repeats itself – maybe not to the letter, but more or less – that’s the key principle of technical analysis. The price swings in silver now are almost identical to its moves in 2008, not only in relative terms, but also in terms of the (almost) exact prices. What does the above suggest? Is it imminent? Does silver have to slide to or below $10? Of course not.

The Logical And Fast Approaching Major Catalyst For Gold

History shows that bear markets in stocks have sprung major bull markets in Gold and gold stocks. The conditions for such are in place once again and only the timing is uncertain. It is quite logical from both a historical & fundamental perspective. Gold and gold stocks may be struggling now & it could continue, but they are perfectly setup for a massive move higher once the stock market peaks.

Gold Prices Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply

Gold and silver are off to a good start in 2017. We’ve talked earlier about negative real rates supporting prices, and some other potential market movers that could drive demand for the yellow metal specifically. Here’s Frank Holmes on more in terms of potential catalysts that may drive things for the rest of the year & about the more upside in the precious metals.

High Probability of a Huge Gold Price Rally - Sooner than You Expect

Early March is the traditional seasonal lull in gold, right before the spring rally. But this year, it’s an entirely different ball game. Amid the ‘Trumphoria’ stock market surge we saw a radical shrugging off of gold while everyone was paying attention to fantastically over-valued stock markets. Now that rally has ended, we’re staring down a massive gold-buying spree that should take off in mid-March.

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