Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Stocks’

Gold Prices In Oversold Territory - US Dollar in Overbought; Need We Say More?

When gold prices broke through $1,200 yesterday, it triggered a mass of automated selling and that has pushed the market into extremely oversold territory. If gold prices can hold $1,170 then I think we could see the market bounce back. Another positive for gold prices is the US dollar, which is in extremely overbought territory and due for a correction.

Trump’s Agenda will fuel Bigger Deficits, Debt & Inflation: Super-Bullish for Gold

No matter how awesome Trump’s pro-growth economic policies ultimately prove, these Fed-levitated stock markets near bubble valuations still face an overdue bear. And Trump’s big-spending agenda is going to fuel bigger deficits, bigger debt, and inflation for years to come. That’s super-bullish for gold since it tends to move counter to stocks.

Can You Guess the US Election Winner? It's Obviously - Gold

Investors are on edge…and we can’t blame them. The S&P 500 has fallen nine straight days. Safe-haven demand maybe set to rise as the US election is now just days away. Unlike past elections this one appears to grown more uncertain and fraught the closer it gets. There’s one certain winner of next week’s presidential election, according to HSBC: Investors in Gold.

US Dollar & Elections to Kick-up a Massive Storm in the Gold Market

Gold has already unwound from its overbought conditions. We had very crowded positions at the recent high – it’s looking like it’s ticking up again on the back of Friday’s uncertainty and now I suspect that will continue technically until the 1,500 mark. The current bull market in gold stocks will likely run for a few more years & the average gold stock could head many times higher.

Here's What The Most Important Buy Signal for Gold Stocks Indicating Now

One chart signals the time to buy gold stocks more accurately than any other piece of research I know of. Since 2000, this chart flashed a buy signal on gold stocks only three times – And gold prices doubled …while mining stocks tripled, each time. This is the indicator that stands out above the rest and lets you know when it’s a low-risk time to buy gold mining shares.

Time for Patiently Using Corrections & Patterns to Build Gold Positions

The correction is providing an opportunity to enter stocks that we thought got away. The question is precisely when to make those moves. If historic patterns around W-shaped corrections & reactions of gold to rate hikes persist, we could be looking at a strong start to 2017. This fall may be the time for patience & using patterns to position your portfolio for gold’s next leg up.

Is Gold and Silver Bull Market Intact or will US Dollar Strength Crush it?

Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, gold and silver would be vulnerable to further losses. Ultimately, as long as Gold and silver’s fundamental driver – declining or negative real interest rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track. With inflation poised to rise, real rates are likely to decline further in 2017.

Gold Prices & it's Relationship with the Expansion of Fiat Money

Not only is Fiat Money Quantity, continuing to grow above its long-term trend, but it appears to be accelerating. The inflationary implications are obvious. Gold is already under-priced to a substantial degree. Further expansion of FMQ will eventually lead to a complete reassessment of the price relationship between fiat dollars and physical gold, to gold’s benefit and the dollar’s detriment.

Gold Bull Market Intact Regardless of Short Term Price Gyrations

Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. Currently the fundamental drivers of gold are mixed, which makes a sideways move the most likely prospect, barring new developments. We remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly, and that the long term case for gold remains intact regardless of short term price gyrations.

Price of Gold Could Rise a Lot Higher - In Fact Double

There’s a difference between the narrative, which is what you’re being told, versus the reality of the economic data. It’s in no one’s interest ahead of the election to say the U.S. economy is a mess. If the flood of bad economic data continues, the Fed will almost certainly print more money or cut interest rates. And that could easily send the price of gold through the roof.

Gold may Spring a Surprise on Rising Uncertainty & a Slowing Global Economy

Over the long term, people have realised the benefit of portfolio diversification. Holdings in gold-backed ETFs were 2,051 metric tons by Oct. 14, the highest level since June 2013. In the latest gold and silver COT report, paper players made big strides in bringing the market back into balance & setting the stage for an eventual rebound. The gold market may surprise us again.

Gold Edging Close to Triggering a “Buy” Signal. Will You Buy?

Banks added 27 tonnes to their reserves in August in an effort to diversify their assets and hedge against their own policies. In a survey of 19 central bank reserve managers, the WGC found that close to 90 percent of them have plans either to increase their gold reserves or maintain them at current levels. Investors might consider doing the same, for the very same reasons.

Rising Inflation & Sagging Confidence in Central Banks will Catapult Gold Prices Higher

Inflation may surprise to the upside. Consumer prices are set to rise as oil rebounds, while low or negative interest rates and bond buying by central banks have failed to boost economies. Interest rate hikes are incredibly positive for gold prices, because of the existence of the huge QE “money ball” that sits at the Fed & other central banks. Gold prices need another rate hike from Janet to move higher.

Ironically, Gold and Silver will find Buyers in Crowds at Higher Prices Than at Lower

Even after you’ve done the research & decided to participate, buying into price weakness against the herd & contrary to your emotions is not an easy thing to do. But time & again, some of the world’s most successful investors have done just that. You might want to consider joining their ranks. As new nominal highs in both gold and silver are printed, several situations begin to develop.

Why And How The US Fed Will Drive Gold Higher

After raising rates in Dec, the US Fed back-flipped on its aggressive interest rate policy earlier in the year. The US stock market nosedived by about 10% and Chinese debt issues worried investors. Gold & gold stocks went through the roof! Despite the stock market recently hitting all-time highs, the Fed kept delaying increasing rates. This ‘wait and see’ policy is causing a lot of uncertainty.

Does the Current Gold Price Justify the Big Gains in Gold Stocks?

Despite the 25% decline in the gold price since 2013 to $1,050, profit margins only fell by 12% as the industry responded by cutting costs and restructuring their operations. With gold now trading at $1,350 per ounce and AISC holding steady, net profit margins for the industry have increased from $220 to over $500 per ounce – an increase of 127% in just 7 months.

Peak Gold Production and the Implications for Gold Prices

The global gold output has been contracting since 2013. There are just not that many new mines being found and developed, and this is “very positive” for the gold price going forward. Thomson Reuters too is of the view that global mine supply is set to begin a multiyear downtrend in 2016. Demand for gold, on the other hand, should remain strong, helping to support prices even more.

Are You sure there will be Enough Gold to match the Exploding Demand?

Cracks are now visible in the central banks’ wall of deceit. Trillions of dollars of bonds now trade at negative yields. Helicopter money is in the cards. People the world over now sense the jig is up. So one important question hangs in the air: Will there be enough gold to match exploding demand? Supplies are drying up. So… Has the world reached peak gold? And what does it spell for gold prices?

Gold Demand Remains Stable During Sector Weakness

Gold demand peaked in the middle of 2010 & went sideways for a few years before succumbing to the bear market. That lack of strong demand in 2011 while Gold surged, was a warning sign. The amount of Gold in GLD can be a sort of an indicator for the sector. While Gold & gold shares are correcting now, the real time data coming from GLD suggests Gold demand is & should remain firm.

Divide Global Money Supply by Global Physical Gold = Correct Gold Price

It’s true that there’s a limited quantity of gold. But there’s always enough gold to support the financial system. It’s also important to set its price correctly and there can be a debate about the proper gold price. Just take the amount of money supply in the world, the amount of physical gold in the world, divide one by the other, and there’s the gold price. It’s not complicated mathematics.

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