Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold Stocks’

Gold Stocks Entering Seasonally-Strongest Period - All Primary Drivers are Bullish

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. This seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. And this coming winter rally looks exceptionally bullish because the seasonal tailwinds won’t be overpowered by bearish sentiment, technicals, or fundamentals.

A Long Dry Spell of Exploration will Pressure Gold Prices Upwards

We’ve had a long dry spell of exploration in the gold mining space. Over the medium and long-term, this could lead to a supply-demand imbalance & ultimately put strong upward pressure on the price of gold. It doesn’t really matter what the gold price will do in the next few years. Production is coming off, and that means the upward pressure on gold prices could be very intense.

Can Bond & Stock Market Bubbles outlive Reversal of Monetary Stimulus that Created them?

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have been two of the biggest liquidity creators and both have stated they intend to reverse their policies. With the ECB set to taper its purchases, what will happen to yields? And where will the liquidity come from to hold bond and equity prices aloft? Are central banks about to pop the bond & stock market bubbles they have created?

The Long-Term Demand Picture Remains Supportive of Gold Prices

As more EM economies — including China — are set to grow to these income levels over the next few decades, the underlying long-term demand picture remains supportive of gold prices…While fear can spike or fall relatively quickly, wealth tends to accumulate slowly. This makes wealth an important, but easy to overlook in short-term forecasting, driver of gold.

In the Near Future, Gold is Certainly going to get very, very Overpriced

Everybody should have coins, physical coins, as an insurance policy, as an emergency, if nothing else. You hope you never need them. Before this is over, gold is going to turn into perhaps a bubble. It’s certainly going to get very, very, very overpriced. From gold prices moving about $1,300 currently, perhaps we may see $13,000 per oz gold in the not distant future.

Are You Still Worried if Gold is in a Real Bull Market or Not? Let Me Show You

Gold and silver appear to be in the early innings of a cyclical bull market and the analogs suggest there is plenty of room to run to the upside. For those of you who missed the last bull market in its early stages, here is your second chance. It is 2002 all over again. Are you going to be the early bird who catches the worm, or wait till it is too late? Let me explain what this means to you as an investor.

While Gold builds Momentum after Breakout, Silver Indicates End of Bear Market

The long-term outlook for gold couldn’t be better with it looking destined to break out from a giant 4-year long base pattern to enter a bull market that promises to dwarf the last one. Since silver is in the late stages of forming the Right Shoulder of its H&S bottom it is at a good point to accumulate, although this is likely to be the last chance to buy silver anywhere near to its bottom.

Silver Stocks - The Biggest Beneficiaries of Rally in Gold Prices

While rising gold prices should be good news for gold stocks, it may be even better news for silver stocks. Most silver stocks have diversified their production portfolios in recent years as a result of spot silver’s volatility & that led many to reduce their exposure to silver & increase their exposure to gold. Also at 75-to-1 right now, the ratio suggests that silver may have a chance to outperform gold.

With Gold Prices Poised to Rally Higher, Upside Potential in Gold Stocks is Huge

Despite their big gains since early 2016, the gold stocks remain very low and their young bull is still little in secular context. So it’s not too late to get deployed. With gold prices likely to rally far higher as these lofty stock markets roll over, gold stocks’ upside potential is huge. As gold is bid higher on weaker stocks, gold stocks will soar.

Buy the Dips - A Major Gold Bull Market Expected to begin in Earnest

Price and volume action in gold in recent weeks has been very bullish indeed. Gold charts suggest that the dollar is destined for a serious breakdown. Even if the dollar does bounce up a bit, gold would pull back, but not by much, to provide what will be probably turn out to be the last chance to accumulate the sector at favorable prices before the expected major bull market begins in earnest.

The Incredible Value of Investing in Gold in a Minefield of Overvalued Assets

After hitting a low around $1,200 in July, the price of gold has since advanced by more than 10% or $140 to $1,340. A confluence of factors has been pushing the price of gold higher over the past few weeks and I believe it is headed for $1,500 by the close of 2017. While a near-term pullback on profit-taking makes sense, I expect it to be short and shallow, before resuming the northbound rise.

Gold Prices may be Slow to Rise, but the Direction seems Completely Certain

Gold is challenging the $1300 level for the third time this year. If it breaks upwards out of this consolidation phase convincingly, it could be an important event, signalling a dollar that will continue to weaken. The factors driving the dollar lower are several & disparate. Here is a summary of these trends & explains why the consequence appear certain to drive gold, priced in dollars, much higher.

Gold Prices Poised for an Upside Explosion after Paper Gold Bear Raids Failed

Gold seems poised to resume its march to $1,300 after the paper gold bear raids of late June. Fundamentals are stronger than ever for gold prices. A weak dollar is the Fed’s only chance for more inflation. And that means a higher dollar price for gold. Geopolitical risks are piling up from North Korea, to Syria, to the South China Sea. Get ready for an explosion to the upside in gold prices.

Gold Prices have Beaten the Stock Market so far this Century

The price of gold has outperformed the S&P 500 Index so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions, both of them resulting in a loss of around 40 percent. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, boosting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.

Momentum in Gold Stocks Building for an Exceptionally Strong Season

Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality as their price action mirrors that of their primary driver, gold. And since gold stocks have so seriously lagged gold in 2017, their upside potential in this year’s autumn rally is exceptional. That’s already begun in July, proving sentiment is starting to shift away from excessive bearishness. Momentum is building for a far-better-than-average strong season.

Potential Catalysts Forming a Great Scenario for Gold Prices

The continuous printing of money, a weak dollar and negative real interest rates – all make a great scenario for gold prices. Another potential catalyst for higher gold prices may be the theater surrounding the hiking of the debt ceiling in Washington. We’re also in the seasonal pattern for gold prices where it’s usually from here up to the Chinese New Year, a succession of higher highs.

Powerful Upleg in Gold and Silver Believed Imminent

The significant increase in Large Spec long positions this past week in gold and silver from a very low level might be cause of concern to some, since it of course increases the risk of a reaction in these metals. Also in the face of a continued albeit incremental rise in the prices of gold and silver, the Large Specs have suddenly realized their mistake & are scrambling to get back on board.

Alarming Rise in Global Debt Levels to wake up Gold from Slumber

The medium- to long-term investment case for gold, I believe, looks even brighter. Many unsettling risks loom on the horizon—not least of which is a record amount of global debt—that could potentially spell trouble for the investor who hasn’t adequately prepared with some allocation in a “safe haven. Paying down this debt will not be easy. Another crisis could be in the works.

Dollar's Long-term Downtrend will have Positive Impact on Gold Prices

The charts for the dollar index continue to look grim. On the 8-month chart we can see it dropping away beneath a parabolic downtrend that is accelerating to the downside. If this parabolic downtrend continues to force the dollar lower it should have a positive impact on the gold price, although it hasn’t thus far. Further significant weakness in the dollar should of course be bullish for gold and silver.

Fundamentals in place for Gold with Fed Tightening amid Unjustified Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500 Index has reached new, all-time highs. While the current stock market does not have the same feeling of mania seen before the tech bust, in the context of an economy that struggles to achieve 2% growth, we struggle to justify current stock market valuations – and remember, the Fed is tightening. Gold should also benefit if the US dollar trend seen so far in 2017 continues.

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