Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Gold’

Could Central Banks Dump Gold in Favor of Bitcoin?

If gold continues losing value, could central banks dump their gold in favor of cryptocurrencies? Yes, I realize this is anathema to those who anticipate a gold-backed currency becoming the dominant form of centrally issued currency, but the idea of governments that have debauched their currencies building reserves of decentralized and limited-in-issuance cryptocurrencies may not farfetched.

Outlook for Gold and Silver Stronger "NOW" than has been for Several Months

The coming days will go a long way in determining if we were right & the bear market is over, or the gold and silver rally was just another selling opportunity. Analysts see the US Dollar losing further ground & stock markets due for corrections. Also inflation seems firming up after a lengthy bout of weakness. The outlook for gold and silver seems stronger NOW, than it has been for several months.

Banks Reduced Short Positions Significantly - Time to Buy Gold, Silver

Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report signaled we are close to bottoming & suggest that both gold and silver should have a positive January and Q1, 2018. Speculators are finally beginning to cut back on long bets whilst commercials & large bullion, the “smart money” & the “inside money” have reduced their shorts dramatically. This simply means – Time to buy gold, silver.

Will Bitcoin make things Worse for Gold before they get Better?

While new, smaller cryptocurrencies and “initial coin offerings” continue to gain attention, the market’s more speculative gold mining stocks are taking a beating. Bitcoin is killing gold right now. We have no idea how long crypto-mania will last. But if the excitement surrounding bitcoin continues through the holiday season, we suspect things will get worse for gold before they get better.

How Gold Prices Perform During Interest Rate Hikes

The prevailing view is that rate hikes are the natural enemy for gold prices. Analyzing rate cycles & gold prices from 1971, we find gold tends to do better in hiking-cycles than cutting-cycles. The positive performance during hiking-cycles can be explained with the 3 drivers identified in our gold price framework. Given the outlook for these drivers, gold will likely do well even as the Fed keeps raising rates.

Gold Prices Struggle to Breakout from the Tightest Range in a Decade

Gold prices continue to oscillate in a remarkably tight trading range. In fact, with a span of little more than $33 over the last 25 days of trading, we are looking at the most complacent period of trade for the precious metal since 2007. But I expect this precious metal to be shaken out of its dormancy by any number of fundamental cues over the very near future.

Seems like 2018 will be a Major Turning Point for Gold and Silver

Any hiccup, crash, disturbance within the crypto space that causes this up-trend to reverse is going to cause a massive amount of funds to move back into the precious metals space, as people take a portion of their phenomenal gains & park it in an asset class that they believe to be a safe space, i.e. gold and silver. The potential for gold and silver to sharply increase throughout 2018 is incredibly high.

A Closer Look at Gold & the US Dollar - Do They Tell us Something?

Commodities are priced in dollars. Global trade is done in dollars. And the majority of international funding is in USD. The dollar is important. Dollar trends impact markets and assets around the world in various ways. Hence why the dollar is the fulcrum. But if the dollar is the fulcrum then gold is the foundation on which that fulcrum sits. Now let’s take a closer look & see if they tell us anything.

Exiting Bitcoin to Enter Gold and Silver - Right? Why would You go the Other Way Around?

Sound money advocates who love the concept of cryptocurrencies but don’t want to abandon precious metals have been trying to clarify their thoughts of late. Selling out precious metals might be unwise if we consider that gold and silver prices are closer to their lows, and Bitcoin and the cryptos are reaching new highs. Analyse whether or not Bitcoin, the US Dollar or physical gold will remain money.

A Buy Position in Gold - Heads I Win, Tails I don’t Lose

Markets have now priced in a 100% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Gold is just waiting for confirmation from the Fed in a few weeks. We have a “Heads I win, tails I don’t lose” situation. If you take a long position in gold today & the Fed raises rates, nothing happens to the price because the rate hike is already priced in. But if the Fed does not raise rates, gold prices will spike suddenly & dramatically.

The Big Question now is - Where does Gold go from Here?

Gold has held its own despite higher interest rates and threats of more. That tells me we’re seeing a flight to quality, meaning people are losing confidence in central banks all over the world. They realize the banks are out of bullets. So gold has been moving up in what I would consider a challenging environment of higher rates. The question now is, where does gold go from here?

Gold Remains Preferred - Wild Volatility & Internet Dependency Weigh Against Bitcoin

Internet shutdowns and cybersecurity attacks compromise our democratic freedoms. When our democratic freedoms are threatened it means our financial ones are also at risk. So many investors spread the risk & hedge their bets against such events. However it can be rendered pointless if your management of your assets is reliant on internet access. Gold is as relevant here as it always has been.

Think AGAIN! - Is Bitcoin a Better Store of Value than Gold?

The bitcoin story has grabbed the trading and investing world’s attention like nothing else, hence the huge rise in its price this year. The root cause of the recent price plunge is a long-running conflict over Bitcoin’s failure to fix its most obvious flaws. But if we get a period of market stress then it could be time for the gold bugs to step up a gear as no one knows how bitcoin will react to a market panic.

Stock Market Crashes happen when no one's Worried about it, Not when Everyone's Worried

Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Why should investors be so concerned right now? I expect the wheel of fortune to turn and for luck to run out for the sellers. The catalysts for a volatility spike are all in place. We could even get a record super-spike in volatility if several of these catalysts converge.

What's keeping a lid on Gold Prices? Seems just a Play to Distract Investors

You will see higher gold prices next year on the back of low interest rates, no matter who the new Federal Reserve Chair is. A global debt crisis is building and that will be a long-term factor for gold prices. Sentiment, which has driven equity markets to record highs, could change very quickly and investors will soon be happy to have gold in their portfolio as an insurance policy.

Silver Looks Set to React Violently - Anytime Now

Prolonged underperformance by silver is a sign of a bottom. Volume indicators have improved, especially this year, a positive sign. Unlike gold, silver’s COT structure showed further deterioration last week, and readings are now at levels that are construed as bearish. There is plenty of room for improvement, which will come about if the silver reacts back as expected on a continuation of the dollar rally.

Bullion Banks Target the 200-Day Moving Average in Gold a Third Time this Year

Twice previously this year, The Banks have managed to maneuver the gold price down and through the 200-day moving average. On these prior occasions, the speculator selling that followed allowed The Banks to buy back & cover large amounts of their perennial short contracts. And how far might gold prices fall if The Banks can pull this off again? Well, just as in May and July, not too far really.

Gold Plated Yuan & Cryptocurrencies will soon attack the US Dollar

Some 70 hedge funds have bought bitcoin. The crypto currency’s price volatility provide something traditional markets are lacking…action. China has wanted to unshackle itself from the dollar for a long time and now they’re giving yuan-denominated gold contracts a third try. The dollar will soon be under attack: both from a gold-plated yuan and the cryptocurrencies.

Here's why I believe Gold Prices won’t just get Slammed Big-Time Again

All signs point to higher gold prices in the months ahead. I look for a powerful surge toward $1,400 by the end of this year based on Fed ease, geopolitical tensions and a weaker dollar. The gold rally that began on Dec. 15, 2016, looks like one that will finally break the bear pattern of lower highs and lower lows and turn it into the bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Do You Think Gold And Silver Prices Are Manipulated? Aren't Your Lives Too?

Almost everybody complains or laments how both gold and silver are being manipulated, and they are, going back at least to the 1920’s and 1930’s and not just recently. Curiously, very few are even aware, let alone consciously complaining, about how manipulated their lives and those of everyone around them have been and continues to be.

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