Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Housing Prices’

Could China's Housing Bubble Bring Down the Global Economy?

China’s stated intent is to move from a fixed-investment/export dependent economy to a consumer economy. But if we consider what happens when housing slows or even grinds to a halt, we realize the impact on incomes, wealth and consumption will be extraordinarily negative, not just for China but for every nation that sells China vehicles and other consumer goods.

Will this Manic Stock Market Rally End in Tears?

The stock market is back to where it should be, i.e. in rally mode. Can the stock market completely ignore these changes and keep powering higher on the fumes of Mario Draghi’s promises and another rate cut or three in China? At some point reality will trump fumes, and the manic rally will falter and the mania in stocks will end in tears.

The Fed Admits Economy Can't Function Without Bubbles

Wild swings in asset prices over the past 20 years and the associated boom-bust cycles have sparked considerable debate about how monetary policy might play a stabilizing role. In other words, thanks to Alan Greenspan, the US economy cannot function under a normalized monetary policy regime, “roughly speaking.”

Voices Grow Louder To End Reserve Status Of The US Dollar

“What was once a privilege is now a burden, undermining job growth, pumping up budget and trade deficits and inflating financial bubbles.” Jared Bernstein urged that, “To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status.”

Four Reasons the Bernanke-Yellen Asset-Price Inflation May Be Nearing Its End

The remarkable run up of asset prices in the last few years is beginning to run out of steam. Once interest rates begin to rise — and rise they must, whether as a result of Fed policy or not — the end of the asset price inflation will be at hand. The result will be another financial crisis and accompanying recession.

Why The Chinese Must Buy Gold To Survive

Property in China is transforming from a wealth creator to a wealth destroyer.A rising percentage of China’s $26 trillion in bank assets are going bad. While property loses its luster, Gold is a natural, logical candidate, unlike land – a mobile & liquid asset. As Chinese QE proceeds, the desire to own gold will increase.

The Fed Sees No Bubbles, No Inflation, No Problems!

Even if you believe the highly manipulated government CPI data, April’s YoY inflation rate came in at 1.95%. If annualized, April’s monthly change would equate to a rate closer to 4%. Yet, the Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come.

The Shale Oil Boom is More of a Mirage than a Miracle

Shale oil plays are going to be probably much less than a 10-year flash in the pan. They are very dependent on a lot of different things, including low interest rates and the ability to keep borrowing – which could turn around very quickly. Lower oil prices would tend to do the same thing.

It's The Boom That Should Be Feared, Not The Bust

The bust was written in the cards and it could not be avoided, just postponed – It is not the bust, but the boom that should be feared. We currently fear Fed tapering, as we should. Yet, we should be even more fearful that it doesn’t taper.

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