Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘India and China’

Gold Prices Poised to Leap as Love Trade Overtakes Fear Trade

India has pulled ahead of China. The economic output of India’s top 5 cities is expected to reach the size of 5 middle-income countries today. Mumbai’s massive $245 billion economy, could soon exceed the entire country of Malaysia. This presents a huge opportunity for the Love Trade to expand even more, as rising incomes & economic momentum have been a tailwind for gold demand.

Issues that drove Gold Prices to all-time highs in 2011 Have Only Worsened

In 2011 there was an entire narrative around the gold market, when gold was at $1,900 & it was partly about US markets. The narrative in 2011 was that U.S. Federal Government on-balance sheet liabilities, at $16 trillion & the off-balance sheet liabilities of $55 trillion were unsustainable. Today, they are estimated at $19 trillion & $90 trillion respectively. Worsened enough?

Gold Prices Setting Up For A Major Advance Ahead

A decisive break above $1,400 an ounce could be just around the corner & would signal the start of gold’s next major advance. Near term, gold prices will continue to be dependent on the flow of economic news as it affects expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate policies. The U.S. & global economic news will continue to disappoint & this could be enough to support rising gold prices.

Will The Chinese Stockpiling Trigger A Big Move In Silver Prices?

While Comex silver inventories have been declining from a peak of 184 million oz (Moz) in July 2015 to 154 Moz today, silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been doing the exact opposite – from 233 metric tons, or 7.5 Moz on August 20th 2015 to a staggering 1,706 mt today (54.7 Moz). For whatever reason, the SHFE is accumulating a lot of silver.

China’s Love for Gold: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

China & India lead the world in gold demand. This Chinese New Year is no exception. Official “Year of the Ram” gold coins sold out days ago & since the beginning of Jan, withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange grew to over 315 tonnes, exceeding the 300 tonnes of newly-mined gold around the globe in the same period.

7 Questions Gold Bears Must Answer

A glance at any gold price chart reveals the severity of the bear mauling it has endured over the last 3 years. In addition, a correction-defying Wall Street stock market & the never-ending rain of disdain for gold from the mainstream & it may seem that there’s no reason to buy gold. If we’re in a bear market, then I have a few questions.

Can the Indian-Chinese Gold Frenzy Boost Prices?

India and China seem to be buying gold “at a rate which probably accounts for close to the full total of global mined supply.” And given that they aren’t the only gold-consuming nations, the “conundrum” of why the gold price is falling remains. Surely that has to end soon.

India Gold Demand Surges 450%, Bank of Russia Demand At 15 Year High

Gold imports into India in Sept were worth $3.8 billion, up 449.7% y/y & almost double the $2 billion in Aug as, once again, the Indian middle class used the opportunity of a weakened gold price to increase their holdings. Russia’s central bank added a very large 37.3 tonnes of gold to it’s reserves in Sept – it’s largest purchase in 15 years.

New Gold Rush Cometh With Global Bond Market On Edge Of “Cliff”

Should we see capital flight from US & global bond markets, gold should see gains on a par with those in the 2nd half of the 1970s. Experts said that gold’s bubble had burst when it fell from $200 to $100 from Dec 1974 to Aug 1976. But as interest rates rose, gold rose more than 8 times in 3 years & 4 months, to $850 in January 1980.

Positive Correlation Between Economic Growth And Gold Demand

Conventional wisdom holds that good economic times are bad for gold. But over the longer term, economic growth tends to be good for gold. Gold demand in India & China is closely correlated to increasing wealth. The 2008-2009 financial crisis spawned the tail-risk hedge; To protect investors from sudden, hard-to-predict market crashes.

Did Central Banks Collude to Suppress the Gold Market?

Central Banks have formulated a Plan – Paired with the Fed’s inexplicable reluctance to return Germany’s Gold, Eric believes that central banks also did what they could to stop citizens in India from obtaining Gold

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