Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation Expectations’

Gold Bull Market Intact Regardless of Short Term Price Gyrations

Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. Currently the fundamental drivers of gold are mixed, which makes a sideways move the most likely prospect, barring new developments. We remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly, and that the long term case for gold remains intact regardless of short term price gyrations.

30 Years of Data Says Gold Prices Will Rise If the Fed Hikes Rates

Fed rate hikes have, on average, seen much stronger gold gains than a cut, and more frequently, too. Seen against the last 30 years of data, gold is anticipating a major shock from Wednesday’s announcement. If the bond and futures markets prove right instead, and the Fed delays again, the turnaround in gold bullion could be swift.

Sticky Price Inflation at Highest Level since 2009 - What it Means for Gold

The common man has little idea of what the price of gold is because he does not fear inflation. Right now, gold is only an investment hedge for institutional players & still trending up since December. If inflation starts to become obvious though & the sticky CPI suggests that this might soon happen, any upside revaluation in the price of gold is likely to be quick & intense.

A Stock Market Shock Is the Only Way Out: Deutsche Bank Analyst

The US stock market continues to hit new highs to the puzzlement of many. This run to new highs in the US stock market is bizarre seeing as the profit picture remains as muddled as ever. This is definitely not an earnings-based rally. Ironically the shock that is needed would require a collapse in risk assets for policymakers to then really panic and attempt dramatic fiscal stimulus.

Fed "Policy Error" Sparks "Best Fundamentals In Years" For Gold

As US inflation begins to re-emerge & monetary policy around it continues to remain accommodative, the potential for lower real interest rates is increasing. In our view, this could create similar dynamics for the gold market as what occurred in the mid-to-late 1970s. Gold investment appears to be moving towards stronger fundamentals than we have seen over the past few years.

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

This is not 2008 – At least not for Gold Prices

Both, low energy prices & higher real interest rates are already reflected in the current gold prices. As longer-dated oil prices cannot remain below industry costs indefinitely, nor real interest rates rise much higher given a data dependent FED, this creates an asymmetry to gold prices, regardless of broader market normalization – or capitulation.

Desperate-To-Hike Fed Admits : Inflation Is Not As Low As You Think

Having now admitted that all of the market-based expectations of inflation are wrong, depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system.

Crashing Inflation Expectations Suggest Imminent Launch Of QE4

Summarizing it all: The last three times inflation expectations tumbled this low, the Fed was about to launch QE1, QE2, Operation Twist and QE3. And the Fed is now expected to hike rates in less than a month even as inflation expectations are the lowest since Lehman? The Fed is damned if it hikes rates & its credibility is damned if it launches QE4. Good luck.

Bullish And Bearish Forces Affecting The Price Of Gold

The price of gold has gone nowhere in the last two years and has created a 2-year basing pattern. A trendless market indicates a battle between bullish and bearish forces. We hold an alternate view (rather than inverse) on the relationship between interest rates & gold as rising rates are likely to mark a new economic cycle.

Are Central Banks Creating Deflation?

The unintended consequences of continuing to delve deeper into the new paranormal are making the game ever more dangerous as we now have central banks accidentally creating deflation while simultaneously embedding enormous amounts of risk in fixed income markets by sapping every last vestige of liquidity.

Citi Warns - Central Banks Grip On The World Economy Is Waning

Not only are central bank policies having a disappointing effect on business sentiment and investment; they are failing even to revive inflation expectations. Despite having growing doubts as to central banks’ ability to create durable economic growth, we remain convinced as to their ability to push up risky asset prices.

ECB: 4 QE Scenarios & Why Waking From QE Dream May Be Worst Possible Outcome

Credit Suisse believes that these are four potential scenarios for ECB sovereign bond purchases (QE). It will be truly ironic if the one event that terminally crushes the Eurozone will be the implementation of the one ECB act that everyone, and certainly tenured economists and other quasi-pundits, have been hoping for since 2012.

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