Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation Rate’

What Role May Trumps' Policies Play in Creating Inflation

Among the main drivers of higher inflation expectations, one is the idea that a larger fiscal deficit will inevitably lead to higher inflation. The Trump program calls for higher defense expenditures and increased infrastructure spending. The perception in the financial markets is that fiscal spending and tax cuts add up to higher deficits, which would almost certainly imply higher inflation.

Gold Preparing for a Healthy Rally into Higher Territory

Hedge funds and institutional speculators have been calling the tune for gold, trading the recent range, buying on dips, selling on rallies, and gradually adding to their physical holdings – a behavioral pattern we expect will continue within a rising trading range – at least until a price above the $1300 an ounce level is well established.

The Factors that could Propel Silver Prices to over $100 - At Least!

No doubt, silver will face some hurdles in the Q1 of 2017 as investors take a wait-and-see approach about the new Trump presidency. But, when it comes to the longer silver price trends in 2017, there are a lot of reasons why investors should be bullish about silver prices. It’s never an overnight jump but, if history is any indicator, silver prices could climb more than 1,000% in the coming years.

Global Economy Poised on a Knife-Edge Between Inflation & Deflation

The global economy is poised on a knife-edge between inflation and deflation. The inflationary vector could dominate quickly, based on a combination of Trump deficits & Fed accommodation. Conversely, the deflationary vector could dominate based on fundamental factors such as a strong dollar, deleveraging, demographics & technology combined with premature Fed tightening.

Choking Inflation is last thing the Fed wants now - Good for Gold

The Fed will not raise rates for the fun of it. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control, but what the organization really wants is negative real rates. That’s where inflation is higher than nominal rates. It does the Fed no good to raise rates unless inflation is going up even faster. Yet that’s exactly when gold does its job of preserving wealth.

Gold Investment a Safe Bet No Matter What the Fed Does

Yellen’s comments Friday about running a “high-pressure economy” make it clear that inflation moving a point or two above the 2% target will not trigger a rate hike. The Fed Chair also made it clear in remarks a month or two ago that she was not afraid to use negative rates. We are in a unique situation today in that any action from the Fed is likely to boost gold prices.

The Major Catalysts That Influence Gold Prices

Physical gold had its best quarterly gain in 30 years during the first quarter, and year-to-date, even with its recent swoon, physical gold is higher by roughly $200 an ounce. Gold has firmly reestablished itself as being in a bull market. The factors that move gold prices are largely unknown or overlooked. Let’s have a look at the seven most common factors that influence physical gold prices.

The Fed's Measure of Inflation is Furthest from American Reality

Ben Bernanke first set an official inflation target in January 2012, aiming at 2%. Has it been achieved? Well, it depends on how you measure inflation. There are many to choose from. The Fed has chosen the one that is most suppressed and furthest from the experience of most American households. So the Fed can pretend that inflation is “too low,” whatever that means.

Rate Hike Largely Priced into Gold and Silver - What about Rationality in Sell-off?

Could the FED finally raise rates before 2016 draws to a close? That sounds plausible in theory, but there are a number of factors that do not support a rate hike in the near term. But even if they do hike rates, this move is already largely priced into gold and silver. We should question the rationality of this sell off. After all, the gold price often moves higher along with interest rates.

Sticky Price Inflation at Highest Level since 2009 - What it Means for Gold

The common man has little idea of what the price of gold is because he does not fear inflation. Right now, gold is only an investment hedge for institutional players & still trending up since December. If inflation starts to become obvious though & the sticky CPI suggests that this might soon happen, any upside revaluation in the price of gold is likely to be quick & intense.

Rising Commodity Prices Signal Inflation - Purchasing Power Collapse

Asset inflation is increasingly spilling over into commodities, the feedstock for final goods. Unless commodity prices start falling soon, they are certain to drive up record price inflation, despite the lack of economic activity in the advanced economies. The official line, that there is almost no price inflation, is misleading everyone. Monetary inflation withdraws purchasing power from the masses.

Believe it or Not - It’s Way Too Early to Take Profits in Gold and Silver

If another asset appears better positioned to deliver capital preservation or if the risks to capital fade, it will be time to sell some of your physical gold and silver. For now, the risks are extreme, and most other options look awful. Here are a few signs which would signal it is time to lighten up on gold and silver. Simply hold on tightly to your precious metals till then.

Physical Gold, the Misery Index and Monetary Insanity

The official national debt of $19 trillion, measured in gold, is about 15 billion ounces – around 100 times the quantity of gold supposedly stored in Fort Knox. Given the insanity of endless borrow & spend programs, ever increasing debt, overpriced stocks & bonds, desperation & delusions, and more … have you stacked physical gold in preparation for the inevitable consequences?

Inflation Expectations, Fears, are Rising and Markets are Responding

When I ask if inflation is about to make a comeback, what I’m really wondering is if the value of the dollar is about to fall. I prefer these measures not because they are more accurate – although I think they generally are – but because they are more timely. Prices will follow the value of the dollar eventually but the impact on investments is much quicker.

Desperate-To-Hike Fed Admits : Inflation Is Not As Low As You Think

Having now admitted that all of the market-based expectations of inflation are wrong, depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system.

Gold, Interest Rates, Price of Oil & Bonds - Here’s All You Need to Know

All the same “macro” issues that drove gold prices up during the 2000s decade are still with us; expansionist monetary policies, out-of-control government spending across the world, growing government debt levels, counter-party risks, looming currency crises & more. Second, we’re in the midst of a major reset across the global gold mining industry.

U.S. Wages Have Fallen EVERY Quarter of the Recovery

What has been difficult to document in a definitive way has been the fall in U.S. wages. The problem is that to express U.S. wages meaningfully, we must use “real dollars”, i.e. adjust these wages for inflation. With the U.S. government only providing nominal data about U.S. wages & consistently lying about the actual inflation rate; there’s a lack of data to make any conclusive statement.

Why Dodgy US Jobs Data is Keeping Gold Prices Down

Low unemployment rate will be used as evidence to prevent the dollar from rising. If the US dollar retains its current strength, then gold prices won’t move higher in the short term. There’s no reason for a mass market movement into hard assets like gold if the US dollar is strong and the official inflation rate is low.

Gold Is Beginning to Lose Less Badly Against the US Dollar

Over the last few years, gold has simply been losing the war against the US dollar. Though gold’s price is stabilizing, its struggle against the US dollar is uphill, and that the dollar still has a strong upper hand. Important moves in gold originate from deep changes in the global monetary and financial system.

Real Interest Rates have a Real Influence on Gold

Does gold respond to the inflation or rather to the real interest rate? Paul Krugman said once that the reason behind the high real price of gold between 2001 & 2011 was low real interest rates, not the expected inflation. Is he right and are real interest rates really the main driver of the yellow metal price? How do they affect the gold market?

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