Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Here's why 2017 should make Investors Confident about Gold and Silver?

Any sign that the Fed is going to keep interest rates behind the inflation curve is positive for gold and silver. At the moment, a number of top analysts have several interest rates rises depressing the outlook for gold and silver. But this may either not happen, or inflation could prove more rapid than expected & have the same effect. Here are the fundamentals that should make investors feel confident.

Gold Is Cheap Insurance - No Matter What, Real Interest Rates Will Remain Negative

Either inflation or negative real rates would definitely be a plus for gold prices. If the economy really starts to show strong growth, the Fed will begin a series of rate hikes to put the brakes on inflation, but we anticipate them to be reactive. In either case, real interest rates will remain negative, or at best near zero in both scenarios. This makes a very strong case for holding gold at current prices.

Optimistic Or Pessimistic - Bullish Case for Gold is Clear to All

Throughout 2017, gold should be supported by even deeper negative real rates, which could fall to their lowest level in two years as inflation outpaces nominal interest rate increases. Gold has tended to rise when real rates (what you get when you subtract inflation from the federal funds rate) fell into negative territory. Being optimistic helps you to see the opportunities that others might not.

Gold Prices will soon Reflect the Damage Done (By / To) the US Dollar

As the reality of the ‘new’ Depression sets in, the failure of initial efforts by government will be seen more clearly. They will then step up their efforts. Damage to the US dollar would be reflected in the US dollar price of gold which could easily go from $700 to $7000 in months, maybe weeks. If you think that $7000 gold prices are right around the corner, better plan accordingly.

Gold Price Outlook 2017: Analysts Call for Price Increase

Over the last five years, the gold price has more or less been stuck in a bear market. Moving into 2017, the gold price is expected to move much higher. One key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence, which is also known as MACD, and on a weekly basis the MACD and RSIR are indicating that the next move for gold will be up.

Higher Debt Will Accelerate Central Bank Gold Demand

The U.S. government is currently saddled with $19.9 trillion in public debt. The US dollar accounts for about 64 percent of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. With the potential for higher U.S. budget deficits and debt risking dollar strength, central banks around the globe could be motivated to increase their gold holdings, says Credit Suisse.

Gold Treads Danger Zone - Yet Why Do Some Feel Optimistic?

The presence of considerable global economic, political, market risks and considering that the longer end of the yield curve and the sky-high USD have already tightened conditions, the Fed is likely to deliver a dovish hike later in December. This could mean the dollar & rates along the curve may slide lower & prompt technical traders to send gold back into $1,200-plus territory.

Global Economy Poised on a Knife-Edge Between Inflation & Deflation

The global economy is poised on a knife-edge between inflation and deflation. The inflationary vector could dominate quickly, based on a combination of Trump deficits & Fed accommodation. Conversely, the deflationary vector could dominate based on fundamental factors such as a strong dollar, deleveraging, demographics & technology combined with premature Fed tightening.

Why Some Major Financial Firms See Gold Prices at $1,440 to $1,550 Soon

A factor in my positive outlook for gold prices is the growing national debt, now almost $20 trillion dollars, has to be dealt with. It is at about 75% of the gross domestic product, a ratio not seen since 1950, after the budget exploded as a result of World War II. If the federal deficit for next year grows substantially, look for 2017 to be a very good year for gold prices.

When the Bond-fire has finally run its course, Gold and Silver will Emerge Victorious

Today’s rising interest rates & trillion-dollar losses in global bond markets are prelude to what is to come,- Rising inflation with higher interest rates ending in the bursting of global government bond bubble & long awaited breakout in gold. The battle between capital & free markets is almost over; & when the bondfire has finally run its course, gold and silver will be victors.

Run to Gold as the Inflation Beast Rattles Its Cage

Portfolio-destroying inflation is around the corner because of reckless government spending and unsustainable debt, so stock up the bomb shelter and buy gold. The latest data suggests that the inflation beast is stirring from its long slumber, which means that the classic inflation hedge of gold is on the verge of a sustained rally.

Choking Inflation is last thing the Fed wants now - Good for Gold

The Fed will not raise rates for the fun of it. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control, but what the organization really wants is negative real rates. That’s where inflation is higher than nominal rates. It does the Fed no good to raise rates unless inflation is going up even faster. Yet that’s exactly when gold does its job of preserving wealth.

Brace for Inflation - The Next Big Trigger for Gold Prices

Based on the 10-year TIPS market, inflation expectations recently hit 1.75%, the highest level since the summer of 2015. To the extent that rates are being driven by changing perceptions of inflation & not real rates, higher interest rates may not be an impediment for gold. Gold is potentially the more leveraged play under a scenario where inflation expectations rise faster than nominal rates.

Is Gold and Silver Bull Market Intact or will US Dollar Strength Crush it?

Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, gold and silver would be vulnerable to further losses. Ultimately, as long as Gold and silver’s fundamental driver – declining or negative real interest rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track. With inflation poised to rise, real rates are likely to decline further in 2017.

How Will the Election Outcome Impact Gold and Silver?

The looming national bankruptcy coincides with this year’s extraordinarily divisive election. As the trust and prestige of our Federal government fades, the potential for social unrest and even wrenching change in governance and policy is on the rise. If crisis is coming in the next presidential term, the people holding physical gold / silver will almost certainly be glad they did.

Inflation - Difficult to Move, But Once Moving, Hard to Control

Three key measures of inflation have recently lurched across the Fed’s threshold of 2%. The recent pickup in gas prices is set to have an even sharper upward impact on the consumer price inflation basket. Inflation can really spin out of control very quickly. If it happens, it would happen very quickly. Inflation is like a supertanker: Hard to get moving. But once moving, hard to stop.

Hike Gold Price To Get Inflation When All Else Fails

Raising the price of gold is the easiest way to get inflation. A higher dollar price for gold is practically the definition of inflation. Governments can do this in a heartbeat. The Fed would just declare the price of gold to be, say, $5,000 an ounce & make the price stick using the gold in Fort Knox & their printing press to maintain a two-way market. If you don’t believe this can happen, just check the history books.

Finally The Fed Admits It Has No Clue on Inflation & Investment Spending

The most interesting comment by Fed Chair Janet Yellen was her admission that she and her prestigious voting members don’t have a clue why inflation and capital investment spending have not returned to loftier levels. Then how do they yet expect a significant 250 basis point credit tightening over the next couple of years in an economy muddling along just above “stall” speed?

The Fed’s Missed Window To Hike Rates & Failed Realizations

What is clear is the Federal Reserve should have chosen to increase rates long ago where such tightening of monetary policy would have been somewhat offset by the continued floods of interventions. The window to lift interest rates appears to have closed which could potentially be a policy nightmare. Eventually something has to give & it will likely not be the outcome the Fed hopes for.

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