Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Gold Treads Danger Zone - Yet Why Do Some Feel Optimistic?

The presence of considerable global economic, political, market risks and considering that the longer end of the yield curve and the sky-high USD have already tightened conditions, the Fed is likely to deliver a dovish hike later in December. This could mean the dollar & rates along the curve may slide lower & prompt technical traders to send gold back into $1,200-plus territory.

Global Economy Poised on a Knife-Edge Between Inflation & Deflation

The global economy is poised on a knife-edge between inflation and deflation. The inflationary vector could dominate quickly, based on a combination of Trump deficits & Fed accommodation. Conversely, the deflationary vector could dominate based on fundamental factors such as a strong dollar, deleveraging, demographics & technology combined with premature Fed tightening.

Why Some Major Financial Firms See Gold Prices at $1,440 to $1,550 Soon

A factor in my positive outlook for gold prices is the growing national debt, now almost $20 trillion dollars, has to be dealt with. It is at about 75% of the gross domestic product, a ratio not seen since 1950, after the budget exploded as a result of World War II. If the federal deficit for next year grows substantially, look for 2017 to be a very good year for gold prices.

When the Bond-fire has finally run its course, Gold and Silver will Emerge Victorious

Today’s rising interest rates & trillion-dollar losses in global bond markets are prelude to what is to come,- Rising inflation with higher interest rates ending in the bursting of global government bond bubble & long awaited breakout in gold. The battle between capital & free markets is almost over; & when the bondfire has finally run its course, gold and silver will be victors.

Run to Gold as the Inflation Beast Rattles Its Cage

Portfolio-destroying inflation is around the corner because of reckless government spending and unsustainable debt, so stock up the bomb shelter and buy gold. The latest data suggests that the inflation beast is stirring from its long slumber, which means that the classic inflation hedge of gold is on the verge of a sustained rally.

Choking Inflation is last thing the Fed wants now - Good for Gold

The Fed will not raise rates for the fun of it. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control, but what the organization really wants is negative real rates. That’s where inflation is higher than nominal rates. It does the Fed no good to raise rates unless inflation is going up even faster. Yet that’s exactly when gold does its job of preserving wealth.

Brace for Inflation - The Next Big Trigger for Gold Prices

Based on the 10-year TIPS market, inflation expectations recently hit 1.75%, the highest level since the summer of 2015. To the extent that rates are being driven by changing perceptions of inflation & not real rates, higher interest rates may not be an impediment for gold. Gold is potentially the more leveraged play under a scenario where inflation expectations rise faster than nominal rates.

Is Gold and Silver Bull Market Intact or will US Dollar Strength Crush it?

Conventional wisdom would tell us with the US$ index nearing a major breakout, gold and silver would be vulnerable to further losses. Ultimately, as long as Gold and silver’s fundamental driver – declining or negative real interest rates remain in place, then the fledgling bull market will remain on track. With inflation poised to rise, real rates are likely to decline further in 2017.

How Will the Election Outcome Impact Gold and Silver?

The looming national bankruptcy coincides with this year’s extraordinarily divisive election. As the trust and prestige of our Federal government fades, the potential for social unrest and even wrenching change in governance and policy is on the rise. If crisis is coming in the next presidential term, the people holding physical gold / silver will almost certainly be glad they did.

Inflation - Difficult to Move, But Once Moving, Hard to Control

Three key measures of inflation have recently lurched across the Fed’s threshold of 2%. The recent pickup in gas prices is set to have an even sharper upward impact on the consumer price inflation basket. Inflation can really spin out of control very quickly. If it happens, it would happen very quickly. Inflation is like a supertanker: Hard to get moving. But once moving, hard to stop.

Hike Gold Price To Get Inflation When All Else Fails

Raising the price of gold is the easiest way to get inflation. A higher dollar price for gold is practically the definition of inflation. Governments can do this in a heartbeat. The Fed would just declare the price of gold to be, say, $5,000 an ounce & make the price stick using the gold in Fort Knox & their printing press to maintain a two-way market. If you don’t believe this can happen, just check the history books.

Finally The Fed Admits It Has No Clue on Inflation & Investment Spending

The most interesting comment by Fed Chair Janet Yellen was her admission that she and her prestigious voting members don’t have a clue why inflation and capital investment spending have not returned to loftier levels. Then how do they yet expect a significant 250 basis point credit tightening over the next couple of years in an economy muddling along just above “stall” speed?

The Fed’s Missed Window To Hike Rates & Failed Realizations

What is clear is the Federal Reserve should have chosen to increase rates long ago where such tightening of monetary policy would have been somewhat offset by the continued floods of interventions. The window to lift interest rates appears to have closed which could potentially be a policy nightmare. Eventually something has to give & it will likely not be the outcome the Fed hopes for.

The War on Cash Is Still Good for Gold Prices

In a world where nothing larger than a $10 bill exists, hoarding cash would be highly impractical. As paper currency is phased out, gold prices will rise. Were cash eliminated and interest rates plunged underwater, gold’s role as a store of value would become even more apparent and demand for the yellow metal would turn red hot, despite its price appreciation.

Gold Bears Won't Have Reason to Rejoice Even if Rates are Hiked

US data has been looking distinctly soft of late. If growth continues to tail off, then the case for a rate rise will weaken rather than strengthen, so it may be a question of now or never. The conventional thinking is that a rate rise will lead to a fall in the gold price. It may be that the rate rise that’s now supposed to put a brake on gold will have more of a temporary dampening effect.

Silver Prices in Uptrend or is More Correction Yet to Come?

The Daily trend has flipped higher but the intermediate term trend for silver is yet lower. Hedge funds remain bullish on silver. As long as this recent upside momentum remains intact, this should pose no problem, but as we have seen time & again, any hesitation to move higher, any loss of upside momentum, and this fickle crowd will have to be watched for further long liquidation.

Double Digit Inflation And The Rise of Gold

Inflation can really spin out of control very quickly. So is double-digit inflation rate within the next five years in the future? It’s possible. We would see a struggle from two to three, and then jump to six, and then jump to nine or ten. This is another reason why having a gold allocation now is of value. Because if and when these types of development begin happening, gold will be inaccessible.

Exposing The Link Between Monetary Policy And Social Inequality

Our monetary policy direction has been prolonging the slowdown since 2008. The longer we wait, the worse the hit we will take. We are going from one bubble to another and are just postponing the inevitable. Under our current system, which has stripped the working class from their savings, they are exposed to greater risks than ever before.

A Gold Standard & Debt Jubilee for an Honest Money Monetary System

A gold standard handcuffs corrupt governments, forcing them to operate somewhere near a balanced budget, at all times. It handcuffs criminal central banks, restraining the speed with which they steal-by-inflation to a near-zero rate. Only alternative to Debt Slavery: Debt Jubilee – the complete renunciation of all debts. We absolutely require a gold standard but cannot till we don’t have a debt jubilee.

Emerging Markets and Gold - Right Concoction for a Balanced Portfolio

We can look at emerging markets with strong domestic spending such as India, the Philippines, other parts of Southeast Asia & Latin America where their growth patterns are independent of what’s going on in China. And in this period where we’ve had massive government intervention in the fiat money markets, we have our ultimate portfolio insurance in gold.

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