Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Labor Force’

Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis

The market is materially mispricing the strength of the US consumer whose weakness will lead the US economy into a recession in Q117. The divergence is a result of the top 40% of earners who have accrued 84% of all new income and only 34% of new debt since 2013. This strength has driven headline sales figures and accounted for nearly all deleveraging since the financial crisis.

Latest Jobs Data Confirms This Is The Worst Expansion in 30 Years

To get a better sense of the jobs situation in context, though, we need to look beyond the headline data & delve more deeply into what the BLS is reporting. When we take discouraged workers & involuntary part timers into account, we’re still experiencing some of the highest unemployment numbers in 20 years. And this is taking changes in the overall labor force size into account.

Economic Stagnation and the Global Bubble

Despite massive policy stimulus in the United States since the late 2007 peak, the US economy is now growing far more slowly than in past periods of monetary inaction from the central bank. The Fed has thus become little more than a serial bubble machine. Meanwhile, fragile economic bubbles are being inflated from China to Europe.

What's the Real Unemployment Rate in the U.S.?

The unemployment rate of 5.6% reflects nearly full employment, as 3% to 4% of the work force is in the process of quitting/being laid off & finding another job. By my reckoning, roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed & 40% are marginally employed or unemployed. What qualifies as a job? Should we count someone who earns $1,000 a year as employed?

Higher Than Expected Jobs, Give Yellen Green Light To Hike Rates

While the strong jobs number is strong enough to give Yellen a green light for a September rate hike (or even June), what is most notable is the jump in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, & well above the 0.1% in April, suggesting the slack in the labor force is indeed evaporating.

Velocity Of Money In U.S. Falls To All-Time Record Low

When an economy is healthy, there is lots of buying – selling & money tends to move around quite rapidly. Unfortunately, the U.S. economy is the exact opposite of that right now. Discussions about the money supply can get very complicated & that can cause people to tune out, but it doesn’t have to be that way.

Deconstructing the U.S. Economy: The Non-Recovery

Claims that the U.S. economy is suddenly rebounding have been made before. They are misleading at best and fallacious at worst. It would not be surprising to see further deterioration, which would force central planners to initiate additional unconventional intervention (i.e. Quantitative Easing).

Employment Is A Reflection Of Economic Activity And Growth

With the system of measuring employment being overly complicated & subject to a wide degree of interpretation & manipulation, it is not surprising that the monthly reports draw such emotional arguments. In reality what we all want to know is whether employment is getting better or worse?

It's Not Too Late To Change Our Future, But Eventually It Will Be

The long term implications of these secular shifts are crucially important to the future of everything from investing, to living and the future of our economy. It is not too late to change our future, but it eventually will be if we do not begin to make changes soon.

Employment Data Faked For Political Gain

Despite the many possibilities that surround the impact of falsifying the data for political purposes, the reality is that real employment relative to the working age population still remains near historically low levels.

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