Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Margin Debt’

How Much More Extreme Can Stock Markets Get?

Charts help us understand that a top is not just price, but a reversal in extremes of margin debt, valuation and sentiment. Many observers have an unyielding faith that central banks will never let markets decline ever again. There are four flaws in this blind faith. Here they are.

China's Massive Debt Problem Is About Get Much Massiver

PBOC has announced that regulatory approval will no longer be required to issue ABS. Market players now expect ABS issuance to more than triple to 1 trillion yuan ($161 billion) this year. This means China’s massive debt burden is about to get massiv-er, as banks use ABS issuance as a pressure valve to free up lending capacity.

Stocks And Precious Metals In Extreme Territory

The S&P 500 is relentlessly climbing to all time highs, driven by monetary bazookas of central bankers around the world. On the other hand, the precious metals have only been recovering from a disastrous year (2013) and are in search of a solid bottom. So now what do we look forward to?

Why Housing Has Stalled — And Why Everything Else Will Follow

The US housing market is weak and getting weaker. But the real question is what this means for the rest of the economy. Is housing a discrete sector dealing with its own supply/demand issues, or is it a sign of things to come for consumer spending, government tax revenues, and business investment?

How Commodity Super Cycle Will Decimate Mighty Bull Market

Rising commodity prices are relevant to the Fed only in the context that they confirm biases introduced through the lens of controlling monetary policy. In reality, these cause hypersensitive dislocations in the natural rhythm; hence, volatility. There are many factors at play outside of the human ego.

Is Copper Foreshadowing A Stock Market Crash Just Like It Did In 2008?

Traditionally, “Dr. Copper” has been a very accurate indicator of where the global economy is heading next. For example, back in 2008 the price of copper dropped from nearly $4.00 to under $1.50 in just a matter of months. Is the price of copper trying to tell us something AGAIN?

10 Warnings Signs Of Stock Market Exuberance

Despite the repeated warning signs, the next stock market correction will leave investors devastated looking to point blame at everyone other than themselves. The question will simply be “why no one saw it coming?” When it occurs, we simply refuse to accept responsibility for the consequences.

Gold Stocks Upswing Could Continue Says Eric Angeli

This is very optimistic as far as the start of the year. Gold stocks are holding their gains when the precious metals come down. That suggests that the sellers may finally be done selling and the small amount of buying pressure that’s coming in has made a difference.

Sure Signs Of Nearing The Peak Of A Massive Stock Market Bubble

A bubble is always the biggest right before it bursts and here are some sure signs that we are near the peak of an absolutely massive stock market bubble – Nobody knows for sure when, but without a doubt this irrational financial bubble will burst at some point soon.

Margin Debt Soars To New Record; Investor Net Worth Hits Record Low

Correlation between stock prices & margin debt continues to rise to new records as NYSE member margin balances surge to new record highs – Relative to the economy, margin debt has only been higher at the very peak in 2000 & 2007, and was never sustained at this level for over 2 months.

Deflation Is Coming And It’s Not What You Think

Deflation is coming but not in the way most people think about it – at least not at first. The deflation that’s coming first is coming to financial assets. That’s what I worry about – I worry about asset bubble deflation.

10 Reasons The Market Will (Or Won't) Crash

When markets push to new highs, analysts begin to discuss the potential for the next crash because every major crash in history has occurred from market peaks when valuations, based on trailing 12 months reported earnings, exceeded 20x earnings.

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