Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Monetary Inflation’

Gold Prices & it's Relationship with the Expansion of Fiat Money

Not only is Fiat Money Quantity, continuing to grow above its long-term trend, but it appears to be accelerating. The inflationary implications are obvious. Gold is already under-priced to a substantial degree. Further expansion of FMQ will eventually lead to a complete reassessment of the price relationship between fiat dollars and physical gold, to gold’s benefit and the dollar’s detriment.

The Fed's Measure of Inflation is Furthest from American Reality

Ben Bernanke first set an official inflation target in January 2012, aiming at 2%. Has it been achieved? Well, it depends on how you measure inflation. There are many to choose from. The Fed has chosen the one that is most suppressed and furthest from the experience of most American households. So the Fed can pretend that inflation is “too low,” whatever that means.

Rising Commodity Prices Signal Inflation - Purchasing Power Collapse

Asset inflation is increasingly spilling over into commodities, the feedstock for final goods. Unless commodity prices start falling soon, they are certain to drive up record price inflation, despite the lack of economic activity in the advanced economies. The official line, that there is almost no price inflation, is misleading everyone. Monetary inflation withdraws purchasing power from the masses.

Asset Price Inflation Enters Its Dangerous Late Phase

A progression of the asset price inflation disease into its final stage (general speculative bust and recession) would mean the end of monetary inflation and also inflation in goods and services markets. What could bring about this transition? Most plausibly it will be a splintering of rose-colored spectacles worn by investors. What could cause the splinter? Read here.

Valuing Gold – USD Fiat Money Quantity Update

The purpose of FMQ, is to quantify the difference between sound money & fiat currency by including the steps by which gold has been progressively absorbed into banking system from private ownership & into government vaults via commercial banks & Fed. FMQ shows gold is substantially under-priced in dollars on a long-term value basis.

An Austrian take on Inflation

Success of monetary policy in achieving its inflation target will itself trigger a crisis. The dynamics of the situation suggest that as soon as the consensus view moves away from expectations of deflation, progression to the collapse of affected currencies could be rapid & the rise in the currency price of gold will be sudden & spectacular.

2% Inflation, Gold and The Fed's Current Mandate

Many modifications of policy mandates occurred between 1913 and 1971, and the Fed continues today in a desperate effort to prevent the total unwinding and collapse of a monetary system built on sand. A storm is brewing and when it hits, it will reveal the fragility of the entire world financial system.

2015: If this the Year of the Slump?

There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability.

Gold Outlook For 2015

Do not expect a major move higher in gold in the first half of 2015. Because the current monetary & economic environment, characterized by a rise in negative real rates & a weakening of inflation momentum, is not very gold friendly. The gold to silver ratio keeps on rising, which points as well to disinflation. All said, the bull market is still intact.

Can Money Printing Cause Deflation?

Over the last 45 years I have observed that, in countries with high monetary inflation, real wages and incomes have tended to decline. Incidentally, this has also been the case since the turn of the millennium in the US, a period in which there has been a colossal expansion of money and credit.

Central Bank Credibility, The Equity Markets, And Gold

Coming out of the Great Recession, central bank credibility – their ability to “pull us out” of the Recession – was being severely questioned by investors. Thus, a good portion of investor money found its way into gold. That changed in 2011. Central bank credibility is at a peak, so gold is in the dumps.

The End Of QE3, Trouble Ahead For The Bulls?

The Federal Reserve’s latest asset purchase program, QE3, is coming to an end. What was once an $85 billion a month program, one in which at its peak had been goosing the financial markets and economy at an annual rate of $1.0 trillion – and over its 27 month life will have pumped $1.7 trillion of money into the economy – is going to zero.

Why Are Food Prices so High? Because We're Eating Oil

Regardless of what we eat, we’re actually eating oil. Not directly, of course, but indirectly, as the global production of tradable foods relies on mechanized farming, fertilizers derived from fossil fuel feedstocks, transport of the harvest to processing plants and from there, to final customers.

The New Fed Chair - Janet Yellen's Impossible Task

Janet Yellen is supposed to accomplish what simply cannot be done, namely ‘unmake’ the mistakes she and her predecessor have jointly committed (let us not forget, she was vice chair and never once dissented with the decision to implement an extremely loose policy).

Deflation - Phobia Set to Bring on More Monetary Inflation

Why would Inflation below 2% pose risks to the economy? Who doesn’t want to pay less for things? It is only considered a problem because there is such a huge mountain of unsound debt in the system, much of it incurred by governments, which they naturally want to ease.

The Adverse Effects Of Monetary Stimulation

The problem for central banks is that the alternative to maintaining an increasing pace of monetary growth is to risk triggering a widespread debt crisis involving both over-indebted governments and also over-extended businesses and home-owners.

A Collective Pining for More Inflation

Some economists say more inflation is just what US economy needs to escape from a half-decade of sluggish growth and high unemployment – Widely reviled as a kind of tax on modern life, a sustained burst of moderate inflation is not something to worry about.

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