Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Mortgage Rates’

The Echo Bubble in Housing Is About to Pop

Here’s the knife in the heart of the Echo Housing bubble: household income– stagnating for decades for 90% of households has declined since the Bubble Top when adjusted for inflation. Please explain how declining real income can support nosebleed home prices now that mortgage rates have bottomed & started their inevitable rise from absurdly low levels.

An Insight into the Future Price of Gold

Real interest rates are one of the best predictors of the nominal dollar price of gold. When real interest rates are low (or negative), that gives gold a boost. When real interest rates are high, that puts downward pressure on gold. This easily understandable correlation is much stronger than other correlations such as the stock market or economic growth.

How Important is Housing to the American Economy?

Nothing moves the economic needle like housing. No wonder every Fed chairman has lowered rates to try to crank up housing activity. All claims to the contrary, the disappointing first-quarter housing numbers expose the Federal Reserve as impotent at influencing GDP’s most important component.

Why Housing Has Stalled — And Why Everything Else Will Follow

The US housing market is weak and getting weaker. But the real question is what this means for the rest of the economy. Is housing a discrete sector dealing with its own supply/demand issues, or is it a sign of things to come for consumer spending, government tax revenues, and business investment?

Freddie And Fannie Reform – The Mortgage Monster Has Arrived

As promised, the Johnson/Crapo bill has finally arrived. The Bill is going to increase mortgage compliance costs. It will confuse, rather than clarify, the mortgage application and approval process. It is a disaster. Fortunately, I opine the Bill has no chance of passing in its present form.

Citi Warns: "Housing Sentiment Got Carried Away"

The divergence between the NAHB index and other housing indicators has continued to suggest that sentiment was “getting ahead of itself” and as Citi’s Tom Fitzpatrick warns would suggest that the qualitative nature of the overall housing recovery is less robust than one would like.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Plunges The Most In 2 Years

From 80.2 in Sept, Consumer confidence collapsed to 71.2 (the largest MoM drop in 2 years) to its lowest in six months, far below expectations – It appears the Fed has lost its wealth effect inspiration and once again we remind that all about confidence and hope appears to be fading.

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