Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Demand’

Why The Price of Oil Tanked And Why It’ll Stage A Comeback

WTI spreads stayed in a bearish pattern this week with help from a flood of imported crude into the US, a modest inventory build in Cushing and OPEC deal jitters which were particularly harsh. Our current view still calls for a $47-$55 range heading into the OPEC meeting later this month and we see several reasons why oil should find its footing and potentially rebound in the near term.

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Is India - the World’s “Star Performer” Growth Market, the New China?

One of the bright spots continues to be India, whose own manufacturing sector expanded for the fifth straight month in May. The country’s GDP advanced an impressive 7.9 percent in the first quarter, following 7.3 percent year-over-year growth in 2015. This helps it retain its position as the world’s fastest growing major economy.

Has the Oil Price Rally Gone Too Far? Time for a Correction or Yet More to Rise?

As usual, the oil markets are rife with confusion and uncertainty. Speculators could be overextending themselves – Or – realize that the rally has run out of steam & then decide to pocket their profits. The longer-term looks a little clearer on the back of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market will have to balance out; the only debate is over how quickly that happens.

Watch How The Petrodollar Di(v)es As US - Saudi Relations Crack

U.S.-Saudi interests are diverging in many ways. Saudi Arabia’s 40-year pact with the United States is on the verge of ending. What happens next will have ramifications for the dollar for decades to come. We could be nearing the end of the petrodollar & I would not want to be holding U.S. Treasuries. With current interest rates I don’t want to hold them anyway.

Why We Could See An Oil Price Shock In 2016

Crude oil storage levels have once again increased. The Rystad Energy figures show that the supply-demand balance could quickly swing back in the other direction as upstream investment has screeched to a halt. The oil markets have always suffered from booms and busts, and this is just more of the same. The current bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom.

China And India Rewrite The Rules Of The Oil And Gas Game

Asian oil markets are in a tremendous period of flux. Both China and India are using the drop in oil prices and the existing oil gut to their advantage. New partnerships are being formed and steps are being taken, which undermine the erstwhile major players. Each crisis brings about a change, and the current one is shifting the power from the suppliers to the consumers.

It's Correct that Oil Prices Will Rise — But Here is the Real Reason Why

Oil demand increased globally in 2015 to as high as 2.0 million barrels per day. EIA reports shale production to be declining by more than 100,000 barrels per day. Don’t be misled by the news about China imploding. To this point, it has not impacted oil demand, with imports hitting an all-time record of 7.8 million barrels per day in December.

Bullish Bets On Oil Prices Up But Market Stalemate Remains

Bullish bets on crude oil are increasing after the recent snap-back in prices from retesting the lows earlier in the year. We find ourselves in a highly volatile day-to-day price environment, as oil prices are unwilling to push too much higher given the backdrop of oversupply, but are unwilling to push too much lower given an ongoing narrowing of the imbalance amid strong demand.

Oil Prices Supported by China's Strategic Reserve Hoarding

Imports into China continue to knock the socks off last year’s levels. Should oil imports keep up their pace for the rest of the month, they will be achieve their highest level since April, and imports overall will be up 14% year-to-date through the first three quarters of the year. Bargain-hunting? You betcha.

Why Citi Thinks Oil Is Going To $20

Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) – after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.

Why Oil Can’t Stay Cheap

Oil market gyrations touch everything. So you have to either figure out how to ride the train… or get crushed beneath the wheels. How long can you expect low oil prices to last? Over the long haul, it is simply too valuable a commodity to stay “cheap.” Any number of events could trigger prices to rebound. Anything could happen.

Record Global Oil Demand: Even As Price Of Oil Declined

There are many opinions as to why the price of oil has fallen more than 50% in the past four months. There is this notion put forth by the media that a decline in global oil demand caused the huge drop in the price of oil. Ironically, according to the IEA, global oil demand is higher than ever. Let’s take a look at the situation.

Why a Strong Dollar is the Mortal Enemy of Gold and Oil

The strong dollar pushed bullion prices down 6% in Sept, historically gold’s strongest month. This move is unusual also because gold has had a monthly standard deviation of ±5.5% based on the last 10 years’ worth of data. Oil’s slump is a little more complicated to explain. In a way, American shale oil has become a victim of its own success.

The Illusion that Lower Oil Prices Are Positive

The Oil Head-Fake: The essence of the Oil Head-Fake Dynamic is the inevitable drop in oil prices resulting from a sharp decline in oil demand (i.e. global recession) will trigger disruption of the global oil supply chain that will eventually push oil prices higher than most currently think possible.

follow us

markets snapshot


Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com India

live commodity prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com India

our latest tweets

follow us on facebook