Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Markets’

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude?

The array of comments from OPEC and Russian officials over the past week could signal that a real effort might be underway to reach a deal on freezing production. Iraq would support a deal; Iran will attend the meeting & the potential for an OPEC deal received an endorsement from a surprising source – Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his weight behind a production freeze.

The US Dollar Strength Takes Its Toll On Oil Prices Again

As we exit summer driving season, and as refinery maintenance ramps up, demand eases, and typically… oil prices come under pressure. The return of oversupply fears are clobbering the crude oil complex lower, with gasoline leading the charge. With Nonfarm Friday on deck, bringing the prospect of a stronger dollar, here are five things to consider in oil markets today.

OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher

Oil prices hit one a month high on Monday thanks to speculation about potential producer curbs on supply and new data from market intelligence firm Genscape showing an estimated draw of more than 350,000 barrels per day at the Cushing OK delivery point. Although oil prices reacted stoically on last week’s rig count report, the amount of rigs added to the Permian basin is starting to add up.

Slump In Oil Prices May Burn The Oil Industry Again

When oil prices fall, volatility increases & the floodgates of capital open. Every genius-investor wants to buy low & sell high. Rig count rises with fresh capital, production increases & oil prices fall. When oil prices rose from $26 in mid-Feb to over $51 by early June, the rig count change rate exploded. Predictably, oil prices are falling again on continuing the same thing that got you in trouble before.

The US Shale Industry Is Painfully Adapting to Low Oil Prices

The rise in oil prices over the past six months has come as a blessing for the battered US shale producers. Oil prices have risen more than 50% since January, giving a glimmer of hope to the US oil industry that the worst of the oil crisis might finally be behind them. Moreover, it forced the shale producers to adapt by reducing production costs and increasing efficiency.

Is India - the World’s “Star Performer” Growth Market, the New China?

One of the bright spots continues to be India, whose own manufacturing sector expanded for the fifth straight month in May. The country’s GDP advanced an impressive 7.9 percent in the first quarter, following 7.3 percent year-over-year growth in 2015. This helps it retain its position as the world’s fastest growing major economy.

Do Not Underestimate The Power Of This Year's Rally In Oil Prices

Oil futures are currently around $49, v/s $65 seen in the Q2 of 2015. If the futures market doesn’t expect the oil prices to rise, producers can’t lock in a profit like they might have at $65. If you can’t lock in a profit, you can’t produce as much & thus supply should theoretically fall. This has led us to say the futures price is far more important than the current or spot price.

Has the Oil Price Rally Gone Too Far? Time for a Correction or Yet More to Rise?

As usual, the oil markets are rife with confusion and uncertainty. Speculators could be overextending themselves – Or – realize that the rally has run out of steam & then decide to pocket their profits. The longer-term looks a little clearer on the back of rising demand and shrinking supply. The market will have to balance out; the only debate is over how quickly that happens.

Why We Could See An Oil Price Shock In 2016

Crude oil storage levels have once again increased. The Rystad Energy figures show that the supply-demand balance could quickly swing back in the other direction as upstream investment has screeched to a halt. The oil markets have always suffered from booms and busts, and this is just more of the same. The current bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom.

China And India Rewrite The Rules Of The Oil And Gas Game

Asian oil markets are in a tremendous period of flux. Both China and India are using the drop in oil prices and the existing oil gut to their advantage. New partnerships are being formed and steps are being taken, which undermine the erstwhile major players. Each crisis brings about a change, and the current one is shifting the power from the suppliers to the consumers.

Oil Prices Drop After IEA Warns Production Freeze Is "Meaningless"

A deal among some OPEC producers and Russia to freeze production is perhaps “meaningless” as Saudi Arabia is the only country with the ability to increase output, a senior executive from the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. It’s more some kind of gesture which perhaps is aimed … to build confidence that there will be stability in oil prices.

IEA Sees “Light At The End Of The Tunnel” For Oil Markets

The IEA found a variety of reasons to think that the oil markets are turning a corner, including: supply outages in Iraq, Nigeria, and the UAE; the declines in non-OPEC supply; tepid but steady demand; recent weaknesses in the U.S. dollar; and the potential that OPEC takes stronger action to boost prices, although any meaningful steps to reduce supply remain unlikely.

Crude Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared

During the boom years, big banks gave out billions of dollars in loans to fund exceedingly expensive drilling projects all over the world. Now those firms are dropping like flies & the big banks could potentially be facing catastrophic losses. Since the start of 2015, 42 US oil companies have filed for bankruptcy. The longer the price of oil stays low, the worse the carnage will get.

Crude Oil At $20 Is Now A Distinct Possibility As Chinese Demand Wanes

Importantly for crude oil is the fact that China’s worsening economic situation could cut into the country’s crude oil demand. As the world’s principle driver of crude oil demand suddenly starts slowing to more pedestrian levels of growth, the oil markets are very much feeling the effect. As Goldman Sachs predicted, crude oil prices might indeed fall to $20s per barrel.

Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Oil Prices

Why do we expect OPEC to cut oil production? The US has aggressively increased output. Much of the responsibility for the crash in oil prices stems from a massive increased output in the US shale patch, by around 4 million barrels per day between 2011 & the peak in 2015, nearly doubling production from 5.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 9.6 mb/d.

Current Oil Price Rally Will Fizzle Out Say Analysts

All three of the energy bodies (IEA, U.S. EIA and OPEC) see the oil glut persisting into 2016, potentially taking another year for oil markets to balance out. And while all of them have some differences on where oil prices are heading in 2016, all of them seem to agree that there won’t be large price gains in the near-term.

This Month Could Make Or Break The Oil Markets

October could be a crucial month for struggling drillers. With drillers undergoing credit redeterminations, October could see a wave of debt restructuring and cuts to credit lines, potentially forcing deeper cuts in the shale patch. More will be revealed about the trajectory of the U.S. shale industry – and by extension, the trajectory of oil prices – in the next few weeks.

OPEC Is Winning The Oil Price War Says IEA

The Saudi-led OPEC strategy to defend market share regardless of price appears to be having the intended effect of driving out costly, ‘inefficient’ production. That is because non-OPEC supply is contracting while OPEC is keeping production elevated. Low oil prices are “closing down high-cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea.

Global Economic Fears Cast Long Dark Shadow On Oil Price Rebound

The global economic unease may begin to reach American shores. Although an economic slowdown is no doubt a negative for oil prices, the news could provide enough justification for the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. A delay in a rate hike could likely push up WTI and Brent.

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