Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Prices’

Oil Price Decline may Reverse Trajectory from July - Here's Why

I believe that this most recent drop in oil prices is not being caused by the actual fundamentals of supply and demand. Those fundamentals are actually improving the bullish case for oil — slowly, but steadily. Starting in July, we should start to see a more bullish (and accurate) view of the global oil supply-and-demand fundamentals hit the mainstream.

With Several Opposing Factors, can we expect Higher Oil Prices anytime soon?

One factor that could prevent oil prices from falling further is the possibility that prices floundering in the mid-$40s actually puts a lid on shale production. If U.S. shale underperforms over the next year, the OPEC deal could succeed in balancing the market. But if U.S. shale continues to rise & OPEC fails to extend its deal beyond the first quarter of 2018, oil prices could fall to $30 per barrel.

Oil Prices are most Definitely Heading to the Upper US$30s

Oil is in a downtrend and risks trending into the $30’s. The future might be bright for oil prices but the present is not. Any immediate price gain would be “wishful thinking”. Oil producers are no longer hedging their production because oil prices have fallen too much. US shale continues to grow production & Libya is adding large volumes of supply back onto the market at the worst possible time.

Excessive Bearishness Indicates, Commodities Perfectly Poised for a Major Upswing

The benchmark Bloomberg Commodity Index lost value in five of the past six years, down so far in 2017 too, touching a 13-month low in early deals on Tuesday. The commodities-to-stocks ratio at a historic low today (extreme level rarely seen over the past five decades), suggests “real” assets could once again be set to beat financial assets over the next several years.

China-Saudi deal "Yuan for Oil," Another step to the Grave for the Dollar

As China imports more & more oil, the idea of paying for oil in yuan instead of the US dollar becomes more critical. China is working on a deal to pay for Saudi oil using Chinese yuan. This effort poses a direct threat to the security of the dollar. If this China-Saudi deal happens — yuan for oil — it’s another step closer to the grave for the petrodollar, which has dominated global finance since 1974.

Commodity Cycle in Early Stages of Turning Bullish, Buy & Hold Gold and Silver

As a resource investor, it’s important to have some idea of whether you’re investing in a commodity at a time in the cycle when it’s favorable to do so. Chart reading, combined with supply & demand fundamentals, can help investors identify favorable times to be a buyer or seller. Right now, the cycle appears to be in the early stages of turning bullish for commodity prices.

Commodities Firms Gain Most as FTSE 100 Keeps Going Strong

It is clear that commodities prices have had a really big impact on the stock market in this period, and that this has been far greater than even the impact of the general election. With the pound not doing anything especially interesting at the time (it rose slightly against the dollar but was down against the euro), oil prices have certainly been one of the most important drivers on the market.

Is This Oil Price Rally for Real or Just a Dead Cat Bounce?

What a difference a week makes. Oil prices are more than 9% above last Friday’s capitulation low. The bounce has legs in the short-term but it doesn’t alter the long-term bearish story. U.S. oil inventories just had their largest drop of 2017 & a fifth consecutive weekly decline. OPEC is expected to extend production cuts on May 25. Goldman reiterated its bullish call for an imminent supply deficit.

Can An OPEC Production Cut Extension Push Oil Prices To $60?

Barring another bout of “geopolitical risk,” it seems only significant changes in oil fundamentals will deliver the boost OPEC needs. If OPEC succeeds in lengthening, or even deepening cuts & pulls Russia on board, there’s a chance that the IEA & Goldman’s prediction of a stabilizing oil market & a closer balance between supply & demand by the late-summer 2017 could come true.

OPEC on the Brink of Failure - The End to the Cartel may be Near

OPEC, which has far exceeded the average life of cartels, is on the brink of failure. Though cracks have been developing in the cartel since the start of the current oil crisis, it has managed to stay together so far. The success of the current OPEC deal for production cuts will decide its future as a cartel. If the OPEC members don’t act together, chances are that the cartel will come to an end very soon.

These Fundamentals Point To Higher Oil Prices

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

Don’t Worry about Oil Prices, Here’s How You Can Profit

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

A Massive Spike In Crude Oil Prices Seems Inevitable - IEA

3 years of drastic cuts to upstream spending due to the meltdown in oil prices could result in a shortage of oil supply in a few years, according to the IEA. Global oil and gas investment dropped by a quarter in 2015 & by an additional 26% last year. The pipeline of new projects is too small, while oil demand continues to grow, eventually overtaking supply & leading to a sharp spike in oil prices.

Will $60 Level be a Ceiling For Crude Oil Prices?

Oil prices faltered on Tuesday on slow but steady gains in U.S. output. The failure to break out of a narrow trading range on the upside has exposed crude oil prices to some losses. Having failed on a couple of occasions to break higher it is only natural to see it correct lower. As per a Reuters survey, analysts see oil prices staying below $60 even if OPEC extended its cuts through the end of the year.

Oil Markets On A Knife Edge Despite 91% OPEC Compliance

The 10 OPEC countries that promised to reduce their production as part of the Nov. 30 deal have achieved a 91% compliance rate with the targeted cuts. Oil prices enjoyed a huge surge following the successful outcome of the OPEC deal at the end of 2016, but have stagnated since. If OPEC compliance starts to drop, it will probably do so with a backdrop of rising U.S. oil production.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started

OPEC’s decision to deliberately cut oil supply and abandon the strategy of pursuing market share at all costs is currently benefiting the cartel’s competitor, U.S. shale. Five or ten years from now, a possible market share ‘oil war’ would take place on a totally different battleground, and some regiments or battalions may lack essential armory to wage such war.

Has Saudi Arabia Underestimated the Shale Oil Resilience yet Again?

Saudi Arabia seems unfazed from a possible rebound in U.S. shale. They still believe that current oil prices at around $50 are still not enough to herald a significant rebound of US shale production. Saudi Arabia’s oilmen may not lose sleep over U.S. shale resurgence, but it looks like they may have underestimated the shale resilience yet again, as was their idea of flooding the market with oil in 2014.

Why Gold Prices Could Bottom "On or Close to", After Fed’s Rate Hike

The Fed rate hike could mark an intermediate bottom in gold prices. We could see a knee-jerk move lower on a Fed rate hike, followed by a sharp move higher marking a gold bottom on the CPI numbers. And in the background we have naturally rising interest rates, which, if they continue, will make servicing what is nearly a $20 trillion debt harder and harder.

Strong Buying Continues To Fuel The Oil Price Rally

While it is too soon for the latest CFTC data to reflect the market’s response to the OPEC decision, the forward curve is giving us a good indication of what has happened. Short positions by speculators have been closed out amid the post-OPEC meeting euphoria, while oil producers have snapped up short positions along the forward curve, hedging future oil production over the coming years.

Gold Prices Bounce from Key Support - Bull Market Intact

Gold could see a better tone this week assuming that the dollar takes a bit of a breather from its upward advance and if U.S. equity markets pause after several weeks of heady gains. Despite on a short-term sell signal, the gold sector remains firmly on a long-term buy signal. Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for investors holding for long term.

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