Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Producers’

Low Oil Prices Didn’t Boost Consumer Spending, Nor The Economy - Here's Why

There is no question that lower oil prices have been a big windfall for consumers. But we’re not seeing much evidence that consumers are spending those gains on other goods or services. While a sharp increase in oil prices can reduce U.S. GDP growth, it’s harder to see evidence of significant net gains for U.S. GDP from a sharp decline in oil prices. Here is why.

Why the Fall in Oil Prices is a Problem for Everyone

The increase of oil prices during the ‘70s caused inflation and recession in Europe & the US while oil producers were building a trade surplus & currency reserves. On the other end, in the late ‘80s & all of the ‘90s, the collapse of commodity prices contributed to a long period of economic growth in industrialized countries & caused serious problems for some oil producers.

Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

Oil producers including Gulf OPEC members support holding a meeting next month to discuss a deal to freeze output even without Iran. Given Iran’s determination to add an additional 1 million b/d of supply to an already glutted oil market, it’s still difficult to understand how “let’s freeze things at a record rate” is a viable way to permanently alleviate downside pressure.

The $5 Trillion Oil Debt Bomb

Oil below US$60 is more than low enough to do an enormous amount of damage in financial markets. When many oil producers went for loans, the industry’s models showed oil prices between US$80 and US$150. So suddenly, there’s a bunch of debt out there that producers will not be able to pay back with the money they make at US$50 a barrel.

Why Is Oil Price Tumbling: Oil Hedges Were Just Rolled Over

As a result of a new bevy of hedges put on around $50/barrell which coupled with the recent decline in the oil VIX leading to slightly cheaper hedges, firms can once again continue to produce at even lower prices as they have rebased their hedges thereby buying themselves a few more months of oil production at even lower prices – offsetting Saudi record production pressures.

Commodity Markets In Distress As Oil Rout Continues

On the whole, 62 US oil and gas companies own $235 billion of debt, and at least 10% of that is at a distressed level. JPMorgan has set aside $140 million for potential write-downs in the coming months, with other banks doing the same. Everything is looking rather ominous. While oil producers get pummelled, miners get mauled.

Default Wave Looms As Energy Sector Credit Risk Surges To Record High

At 1076bps, credit risk for the energy sector has never been higher. As UBS recently warned, more defaults are looming and private equity is waiting to pick up the heavily discounted pieces. However, what is potentially more worrying is a broader-based default cycle… driven by credit contagion, as UBS explains why commodity defaults could spread.

Job Cuts Surge As Outlook On Oil Prices Remains Sober

It may be too early to determine whether oil prices, which began falling a year ago, were now forcing the energy industry to go beyond cutting fat & is now gouging into the very sinew of its operations, but it’s clear that they’re convinced that other economies simply weren’t enough to keep themselves afloat. The job losses probably should come as no surprise.

The Federal Reserve and the Price of Oil

Domestic oil producers have a source for financing: the Fed. If you want to deploy the oil weapon, make sure you have a central bank that can intervene at will, in whatever size is necessary, to reduce the impact on your own economy, while maximizing the financial pain inflicted on the targets of the oil weapon.

Ponzi Finance and $50 Oil - James Rickards

Oil below $50 is more than low enough to do an enormous amount of damage in financial markets. There are about $5.4 trillion dollars of costs incurred in the last five years for exploration drilling and infrastructure in the alternative (fracking) energy sector. It’s been largely financed with corporate and bank debt.

Everyone Loves a Discount—But Where’s the Support for Oil Prices?

Since June, crude oil has tumbled 30% to prices we haven’t seen in about three years. And if crude oil were to fall to $60 per barrel? An estimated 80 percent of U.S. companies that extract tight oil, or shale oil, through fracking would be shut down and all new supply would diminish quickly due to the rapid decline rate.

Making Sense of the US Oil Story

If US oil producers have the option of selling their crude oil abroad, perhaps they can get a higher price for it. If US oil producers can get higher prices for their oil, this may very well filter through to higher oil prices for US consumers, and less oil consumption by US consumers, but this is not the concern of oil companies.

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