Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Production’

Oil Prices are most Definitely Heading to the Upper US$30s

Oil is in a downtrend and risks trending into the $30’s. The future might be bright for oil prices but the present is not. Any immediate price gain would be “wishful thinking”. Oil producers are no longer hedging their production because oil prices have fallen too much. US shale continues to grow production & Libya is adding large volumes of supply back onto the market at the worst possible time.

Futures Market Trend Indicates The Return Of Bearishness In Oil Markets

Speculative movements in the futures market don’t dictate everything, but they are good indicators of market sentiment. Net-long positions in crude futures reduced for a third week in a row. Also the fact that the oil glut persists despite what should be bullish trends – high OPEC compliance, growing demand, and the initial signs of falling inventories – suggests that lower oil prices could be forthcoming.

Can An OPEC Production Cut Extension Push Oil Prices To $60?

Barring another bout of “geopolitical risk,” it seems only significant changes in oil fundamentals will deliver the boost OPEC needs. If OPEC succeeds in lengthening, or even deepening cuts & pulls Russia on board, there’s a chance that the IEA & Goldman’s prediction of a stabilizing oil market & a closer balance between supply & demand by the late-summer 2017 could come true.

OPEC on the Brink of Failure - The End to the Cartel may be Near

OPEC, which has far exceeded the average life of cartels, is on the brink of failure. Though cracks have been developing in the cartel since the start of the current oil crisis, it has managed to stay together so far. The success of the current OPEC deal for production cuts will decide its future as a cartel. If the OPEC members don’t act together, chances are that the cartel will come to an end very soon.

Don’t Worry about Oil Prices, Here’s How You Can Profit

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude?

The array of comments from OPEC and Russian officials over the past week could signal that a real effort might be underway to reach a deal on freezing production. Iraq would support a deal; Iran will attend the meeting & the potential for an OPEC deal received an endorsement from a surprising source – Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his weight behind a production freeze.

The True Value of Gold (Economic Code) Finally Revealed

The true value of gold is much higher than the spot price quoted in the market. This is due to several factors, but the most important reason is misunderstood by just about every economist and monetary scientist in the world today. Those who are able to understand the information in this article, will finally be able see the value of gold (money) in a totally different way.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Why Any Major Crash in Oil Prices Remains Unlikely

At oil prices below $40 a barrel, virtually no new drilling occurs. As a result, oil prices today may be artificially boosted by market speculation, but as long as they don’t go high enough to lead to significant new drilling, fundamentals will eventually catch up and production will fall dramatically. That in turn will support current oil prices and perhaps even higher prices in the future.

Oil Prices can Spike on $1 Trillion In Spending Cuts

An oil supply deficit may be hard to fathom given two years of surplus and rock bottom oil prices, but with the financials of so many oil companies badly damaged, upstream investment could come up short in the not-too-distant future, even if oil prices continue to rise this year. The small increase in the US oil rig count over the past few weeks is not nearly enough to reverse the decline.

Why We Need Oil Prices to Rise to $120 Per Barrel or More

When oil prices fall from $100 per barrel to $50, the incomes of a large share of people are adversely affected. This drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items & is also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house.

With A Rebound In Oil Prices, Will Drilling Activity Return?

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

Iran Offers Discounts On Asian Crude Oil, Hits Saudi Where It Hurts Most

Iran has introduced a discount on the June contract for its heavy crude oil going to Asia, just after Saudi Arabia announced a price increase for its own June contract for the continent. With the discount, Iranian crude oil will be noticeably cheaper for Asian clients than both Saudi and Iraqi crude. Saudi Arabia and Iran are playing a game of barrels & Asia is the ultimate prize.

Do Not Underestimate The Power Of This Year's Rally In Oil Prices

Oil futures are currently around $49, v/s $65 seen in the Q2 of 2015. If the futures market doesn’t expect the oil prices to rise, producers can’t lock in a profit like they might have at $65. If you can’t lock in a profit, you can’t produce as much & thus supply should theoretically fall. This has led us to say the futures price is far more important than the current or spot price.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Oil prices have bounced around a bit after last week but have held more or less in the range of $43 per barrel for WTI and $45 for Brent. The price gains over the past few weeks come as the fundamentals have improved. Oil production is expected to continue to fall through 2017 as too few new wells come online to replace rapidly falling shale output.

Oil Prices Rise Despite Threat of Potential Supplies

Oil prices are expanding their rally despite the failure of the Doha meeting. Traders are now concentrating on the declining North American production. US producers have lost their potential of investing in growth opportunities amid a decline in crude oil prices from $120 to below $30 a barrel. Oil supplies from Canada, US & Latin America could decline by 700,000 barrels per day this year.

Doha Is Done, Saudi Prince Says - No Oil Deal Without Iran

In what appears to be a Doha party-pooping statement, Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman stated unequivocally that The Kingdom won’t restrain its oil production unless other producers, including Iran, agree to freeze output at a meeting this weekend in Doha. If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday.

How to Play the End of the Biggest Oil Bear Market Ever

It’s been a long time since oil has had this much pep in its step. And it’s lifting the rest of the market higher too. Yesterday’s close above its 200-day moving average is crude oil’s first since July 2014. Is the longest downtrend for oil in history is finally through? It’s possible. The road higher will be messy and difficult. But some quality trades should materialize soon enough.

Oil Markets Increasingly Bullish As Long Positions Surge

The latest CFTC data show that short positions in WTI crude oil shrank again last week, dropping by 20% to the lowest level since June. In combination with a 2.4%t increase in long positions, net-longs increased by 17% – to the highest level since last June. Once again, this increase shows ‘much less bearish’ positioning, as opposed to ‘much more bullish’.

Have Oil Prices & Markets Grown Numb To Supply Disruptions?

The idea that there is a major glut in oil supplies has been overstated. Surpluses in the past have been higher & oil prices did not collapse. Oil price discovery is basically made in the highly leveraged oil futures market & speculators exaggerate oil price movements on the upside as well as the downside. Just as fast prices fell because of them in the futures market, they could drive prices up.

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