Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil Supply’

Oil Price Decline may Reverse Trajectory from July - Here's Why

I believe that this most recent drop in oil prices is not being caused by the actual fundamentals of supply and demand. Those fundamentals are actually improving the bullish case for oil — slowly, but steadily. Starting in July, we should start to see a more bullish (and accurate) view of the global oil supply-and-demand fundamentals hit the mainstream.

A Massive Spike In Crude Oil Prices Seems Inevitable - IEA

3 years of drastic cuts to upstream spending due to the meltdown in oil prices could result in a shortage of oil supply in a few years, according to the IEA. Global oil and gas investment dropped by a quarter in 2015 & by an additional 26% last year. The pipeline of new projects is too small, while oil demand continues to grow, eventually overtaking supply & leading to a sharp spike in oil prices.

The Oil War Is Only Just Getting Started

OPEC’s decision to deliberately cut oil supply and abandon the strategy of pursuing market share at all costs is currently benefiting the cartel’s competitor, U.S. shale. Five or ten years from now, a possible market share ‘oil war’ would take place on a totally different battleground, and some regiments or battalions may lack essential armory to wage such war.

Oil Prices Rocked By OPEC Reports - But Can’t Stay Low For Much Longer

Due to a very high degree of uncertainty surrounding OPEC intentions, there is likely to be further volatility in US trading on Friday and the potential for significant price gaps at the market open next week. Overall dollar trends will continue to have a significant impact on underlying crude oil prices. Remember, oil prices will not languish at the current depressed levels forever.

OIL - The Untold History of Black Gold & How it began the Political Strategies of the West

The political strategy of the U.S. had to adapt to provide for the needs & wants of the American population. The ‘70s marked the turning point when the U.S. shifted from being an oil exporter to the world’s largest oil importer. The oil crisis of 1973 was the game changer that transformed the international political & financial system into the current system of petrodollars & oil wars.

Slump In Oil Prices May Burn The Oil Industry Again

When oil prices fall, volatility increases & the floodgates of capital open. Every genius-investor wants to buy low & sell high. Rig count rises with fresh capital, production increases & oil prices fall. When oil prices rose from $26 in mid-Feb to over $51 by early June, the rig count change rate exploded. Predictably, oil prices are falling again on continuing the same thing that got you in trouble before.

Silver Investment is a MUST due to Market Fundamentals

Many investors are more concerned about the short-term silver price movement than its long-term fundamentals. Here are some of the most important fundamental reasons to own physical silver. My analysis on the future value of silver is based on energy. This is much different from the forecasts by most of the precious metals analysts.

Making Sense Of The Weakness In Oil Prices

Saudi Arabia was instrumental in exacerbating the oil slump at the end of last year, when it decided at November’s OPEC meeting not to cut production to support the oil prices. The rationale was that shale producers needed a high price to stay in business. Let the oil prices fall and they’ll go bankrupt – along with those who financed them. It hasn’t really worked. Why?

Price Manipulation In The Oil Markets?

Whether price manipulation is occurring now in energy prices is debatable but be aware, as where there is smoke, there is fire. The question: When is enough, enough? When does it ultimately damage the faith in “free” trading in all assets among investors? Volumes have been declining reflecting a loss in investor confidence.

A Necessary Correction in the Oil Industry

The short-term pain the oil industry is currently facing is necessary & none must not stop this natural process through misguided stimulus in an effort to prevent oil company layoffs. Such efforts are likely to only benefit giant oil companies, as seen in the wake of the 2008 crisis where the biggest banks were the biggest winners.

The Oil Glut And Low Prices Reflect An Affordability Problem

There has been a belief that oil supply decline will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. But it seems that the decline in supply will come through low oil prices. The oil glut seen now reflects a worldwide affordability crisis, which in turn keeps demand depressed. Lack of demand keeps prices low–below cost of production.

Why Citi Thinks Oil Is Going To $20

Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) – after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.

Record Global Oil Demand: Even As Price Of Oil Declined

There are many opinions as to why the price of oil has fallen more than 50% in the past four months. There is this notion put forth by the media that a decline in global oil demand caused the huge drop in the price of oil. Ironically, according to the IEA, global oil demand is higher than ever. Let’s take a look at the situation.

The Illusion that Lower Oil Prices Are Positive

The Oil Head-Fake: The essence of the Oil Head-Fake Dynamic is the inevitable drop in oil prices resulting from a sharp decline in oil demand (i.e. global recession) will trigger disruption of the global oil supply chain that will eventually push oil prices higher than most currently think possible.

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