Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Oil’

Classic Signs of a Bottom in Commodities Seen

Eleven commodities have fallen 20% or more. And seven commodities – oil, gasoline, coffee, oats, natural gas, lumber, and sugar – have fallen at least 30% in the last year. We’re not saying all commodity prices have bottomed. Some commodity prices could continue to go lower. But we do think it’s likely commodities as a group are close to a bottom.

The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil, But Emerging Markets

Emerging markets today are half the world economy. Much of what happened in global credit markets, especially in emerging markets, was based on cheap, easily available dollars, which has ended. It used to be said that when the US economy sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold. Now it seems all we need is a hiccup in emerging markets.

Maybe Oil Goes to $70 on its Way to $40

Crowded trades unwind in precisely this sort of freefall. When the conventional media ordains oil inevitably dropping to $40/barrel, I start looking for something else to happen–like oil going to $70/barrel. There are number of reasons this isn’t as farfetched as it might seem at the moment. Buying begets buying, shorts start covering, and voila…

What Is the Gold - Oil Ratio Telling Us?

One way to establish if a commodity or asset is relatively expensive or inexpensive is to price it in something other than a fiat currency, for example, gold. As a thumb rule, oil is relatively expensive (gold is relatively inexpensive) when the Gold-Oil ratio is below 9 & oil is relatively inexpensive (gold is relatively expensive) when the ratio is above 20.

US Dollar Super-Overbought

The bottom line is the US dollar is super-overbought & will soon crumble. The US dollar falls as fast and far as it rose, reversing all the peripheral trades that suffered during the dollar’s rally. So sell the US dollar high when everyone loves it, and buy euros, yen, oil, and gold while they are still low before they rebound.

We Are So Not Prepared For Another Oil Shock

Once debt reaches a certain level, oil can be $10 a barrel or $200, and either way we’re in trouble. There are other possible consequences of a major Middle East war, but the more leveraged a system is, the more vulnerable it is to external shocks. And no one has ever been as leveraged as we are right now.

Why Are Food Prices so High? Because We're Eating Oil

Regardless of what we eat, we’re actually eating oil. Not directly, of course, but indirectly, as the global production of tradable foods relies on mechanized farming, fertilizers derived from fossil fuel feedstocks, transport of the harvest to processing plants and from there, to final customers.

Who Are The Biggest Losers From The Emerging Market Crisis?

Markets won’t be calmed until there is clear evidence the current account deficits in EM nations improve. But how can these adjustments happen? Current accounts are a zero sum game, so future improvements in emerging market trade balances have to come at someone else’s expense.

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

If you think that an energy shortage is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme.

Stocks Slump Most In 7 Weeks As Silver Surges

This is the first close for U.S. Stocks at the lows of the day since July 31st – The 6th down day in the last 8 in stocks and red on the month-to-date screens is not something we are used to seeing

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