Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘OPEC Meeting’

Here's What Saudi Arabia’s New Oil Policy Will Look Like

Ali al-Naimi’s termination & Prince Mohammed’s official ascent to the top of the Saudi oil chain of command are likely bearish in the short term, as Saudi Arabia reverts to its 2014 strategy of pushing oil prices low enough to put marginal producers out of business. What does this mean for oil, since Khalid Al-Falih is likely to follow Naimi’s policy of safeguarding Saudi Arabia’s market share?

Why North-American Oil Is Positioned To Win In The Long-Run

Not only are North American oil producers displacing non-North American imports from the U.S. market, U.S. producers are competing for share in foreign crude oil and petroleum product import markets. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports at the end of 2015 will increase U.S. exports. The “growing volumes of exports” from the U.S. are now “spooking the markets.”

The Current Rally In Oil Prices Is Reaching Its Limits

Oil prices have climbed by about 50% from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But now, with oil traders taking the most bullish positions in months while the fundamentals still have not shifted in a correspondingly significant fashion, traders have set up the conditions where oil prices could snap back to the downside.

Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

As the shale oil revolution had sustained momentum at oil prices near $100, Saudi Arabia began the second most rapid rig count expansion in its history starting in late 2013. While Saudi Arabia & OPEC have talked intermittently about increasing demand & decreasing supply, their actions have not always comported with the distracting, laissez-faire attitude suggested by their commentary.

WTI Slides As Goldman Warns $20 Crude Oil Looms

Crude oil prices continue to slide back towards a $34 handle this morning following a reiterated downbeat note from Goldman warning that oil storage levels are “too full for comfort,” that positioning is not as stretched short as some believe, and confirming that this will not end until prices near cash costs to force oil production cuts, likely around $20/bbl.

Stop Blaming OPEC For Low Oil Prices

Why do we expect OPEC to cut oil production? The US has aggressively increased output. Much of the responsibility for the crash in oil prices stems from a massive increased output in the US shale patch, by around 4 million barrels per day between 2011 & the peak in 2015, nearly doubling production from 5.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 9.6 mb/d.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Japanese inflation data mirrored that of Germany, and was flat MoM, with YoY inflation dropping to +0.2%. In terms of inflation, the US is in a similar position to both Germany and Japan, in that should oil prices stay around current levels, it will too see inflation data coming in as flat as a beaver’s tail by year-end.

OPEC Divorce And Self-Destruction Thanks To Saudi Oil Strategy?

Despite low oil prices, Saudi Arabia is maintaining its investment in its oil industry. The Saudi government revenue and expenditure data suggest that the Saudis must do far more than “reduce investment” in 2016: the precipitous drop in oil prices—a consequence of their new policy—has put Saudi Arabia on an unsustainable financial path.

Making Sense Of The Weakness In Oil Prices

Saudi Arabia was instrumental in exacerbating the oil slump at the end of last year, when it decided at November’s OPEC meeting not to cut production to support the oil prices. The rationale was that shale producers needed a high price to stay in business. Let the oil prices fall and they’ll go bankrupt – along with those who financed them. It hasn’t really worked. Why?

Market Fundamentals Make Oil Price Increase Unlikely

Fundamentals haven’t changed much & the world is still oversupplied with oil. There are no obvious signs that this trend will reverse in the near future. The worst case scenario, according to the investment bank Goldman Sachs, is that oil prices will drop to as low as $45 per barrel in the next three months.

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