Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘OPEC Members’

Is Putin’s Support For An OPEC Freeze A Game Changer for Crude?

The array of comments from OPEC and Russian officials over the past week could signal that a real effort might be underway to reach a deal on freezing production. Iraq would support a deal; Iran will attend the meeting & the potential for an OPEC deal received an endorsement from a surprising source – Russian President Vladimir Putin threw his weight behind a production freeze.

Here's What Saudi Arabia’s New Oil Policy Will Look Like

Ali al-Naimi’s termination & Prince Mohammed’s official ascent to the top of the Saudi oil chain of command are likely bearish in the short term, as Saudi Arabia reverts to its 2014 strategy of pushing oil prices low enough to put marginal producers out of business. What does this mean for oil, since Khalid Al-Falih is likely to follow Naimi’s policy of safeguarding Saudi Arabia’s market share?

Why North-American Oil Is Positioned To Win In The Long-Run

Not only are North American oil producers displacing non-North American imports from the U.S. market, U.S. producers are competing for share in foreign crude oil and petroleum product import markets. Lifting the ban on crude oil exports at the end of 2015 will increase U.S. exports. The “growing volumes of exports” from the U.S. are now “spooking the markets.”

Have Oil Prices & Markets Grown Numb To Supply Disruptions?

The idea that there is a major glut in oil supplies has been overstated. Surpluses in the past have been higher & oil prices did not collapse. Oil price discovery is basically made in the highly leveraged oil futures market & speculators exaggerate oil price movements on the upside as well as the downside. Just as fast prices fell because of them in the futures market, they could drive prices up.

Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

Oil producers including Gulf OPEC members support holding a meeting next month to discuss a deal to freeze output even without Iran. Given Iran’s determination to add an additional 1 million b/d of supply to an already glutted oil market, it’s still difficult to understand how “let’s freeze things at a record rate” is a viable way to permanently alleviate downside pressure.

Support For OPEC Oil Production Cut Is Increasing

With Mexico, Russia & Saudi Arabia out of the picture, the question is: who is going to decrease their oil production? There is only one entity, and that is the U.S. shale producers. Thy won’t willingly reduce output, but due to the economics of the current oil price environment, many shale oil producers will face bankruptcy next year & as a result, will go out of business.

Don't Expect An Oil Price Rebound This Side Of 2017

With the oil price collapse having started roughly a year ago, that means that it may take about two more years for unconventional output to actually start declining. Given that, investors need to focus on oil stocks that can get through the next two years on minimal (if any) profit, and they themselves need to be prepared to wait for a price rebound until 2017.

Job Cuts Surge As Outlook On Oil Prices Remains Sober

It may be too early to determine whether oil prices, which began falling a year ago, were now forcing the energy industry to go beyond cutting fat & is now gouging into the very sinew of its operations, but it’s clear that they’re convinced that other economies simply weren’t enough to keep themselves afloat. The job losses probably should come as no surprise.

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