Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘OPEC’

OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher

Oil prices hit one a month high on Monday thanks to speculation about potential producer curbs on supply and new data from market intelligence firm Genscape showing an estimated draw of more than 350,000 barrels per day at the Cushing OK delivery point. Although oil prices reacted stoically on last week’s rig count report, the amount of rigs added to the Permian basin is starting to add up.

OIL - The Untold History of Black Gold & How it began the Political Strategies of the West

The political strategy of the U.S. had to adapt to provide for the needs & wants of the American population. The ‘70s marked the turning point when the U.S. shifted from being an oil exporter to the world’s largest oil importer. The oil crisis of 1973 was the game changer that transformed the international political & financial system into the current system of petrodollars & oil wars.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil Prices To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. Putting a number to his call: oil prices will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

The US Shale Industry Is Painfully Adapting to Low Oil Prices

The rise in oil prices over the past six months has come as a blessing for the battered US shale producers. Oil prices have risen more than 50% since January, giving a glimmer of hope to the US oil industry that the worst of the oil crisis might finally be behind them. Moreover, it forced the shale producers to adapt by reducing production costs and increasing efficiency.

With A Rebound In Oil Prices, Will Drilling Activity Return?

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

Why Oil Prices Will Rise And Many Will Be Caught By Surprise

Oil industry investment is far below levels required just to replace production. The only thing that will change the vector of these declines is lots of spending, and the only thing will spur lots more spending is higher oil prices. Just like all the oil bulls had to be run out during the declining price stage, all the price bears will be run out when fundamentals hit them over the head.

Oil Markets Increasingly Bullish As Long Positions Surge

The latest CFTC data show that short positions in WTI crude oil shrank again last week, dropping by 20% to the lowest level since June. In combination with a 2.4%t increase in long positions, net-longs increased by 17% – to the highest level since last June. Once again, this increase shows ‘much less bearish’ positioning, as opposed to ‘much more bullish’.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

Oil Price Volatility Off The Charts - What Explains The Incredible Volatility?

Oil prices are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, but the daily up & down moves are leaving investors with whip lash. What explains the volatility? What is new is the instability in the financial markets. China’s slowing growth; Emerging market currencies crashed; Fed rate hikes may or may not be forthcoming, etc. This all adds up to a period of incredible volatility.

UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes

India is building a massive underground storage facility system that will be able to take on 5.33 million tons of crude oil as a bulwark against global price shocks and supply disruptions. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has agreed to store crude oil in India’s maiden strategic storage facility, sweetening the deal by saying India could take two-thirds of the oil for free.

It's Correct that Oil Prices Will Rise — But Here is the Real Reason Why

Oil demand increased globally in 2015 to as high as 2.0 million barrels per day. EIA reports shale production to be declining by more than 100,000 barrels per day. Don’t be misled by the news about China imploding. To this point, it has not impacted oil demand, with imports hitting an all-time record of 7.8 million barrels per day in December.

Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central Banks Is Lost: Jeff Gundlach

In his latest communication with the outside world, Jeff Gundlach said that gold prices are likely to reach $1400 an ounce “as investors lose faith in central banks. “The evidence that negative rates are harmful and not helpful has piled up to the point that the ‘In Central Banks We Trust’ mantra has finally been laid bare as a hoax,” Gundlach said.

Cash Flow Negative US Energy Companies Have $325 Billion In Debt Among Them

With the topic of distress among U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies becoming more important with every passing day that oil not only continues to drop, but certainly fails to rebound to levels that allow US energy companies to return to a cash flow positive state, we would like to show just how much debt is at stake.

7 Reasons Why Oil Could Fall Even Lower Before Christmas

While OPEC has been reticent and reluctant to defend its oil production levels this year, Russia has been unabashedly boosting exports after six years of declines. As refinery improvements have caused less domestic crude oil demand, this has opened up a window of opportunity for the country to export more.

Stronger Dollar And OPEC Inaction Force Crude Oil Below $40

Looking at global offshore rigs, even though 40 out of 350 rigs have been taken out of the market in the price rout of the last year, we need to see up to 100 rigs go offline to halt the supply glut. The descent into disarray by OPEC has prompted WTI crude oil to plummet into thirty-dollardom; a strengthening dollar is only serving to strong-arm the crude oil complex lower.

Bullish Bets On Oil Prices Up But Market Stalemate Remains

Bullish bets on crude oil are increasing after the recent snap-back in prices from retesting the lows earlier in the year. We find ourselves in a highly volatile day-to-day price environment, as oil prices are unwilling to push too much higher given the backdrop of oversupply, but are unwilling to push too much lower given an ongoing narrowing of the imbalance amid strong demand.

This Is What Will Help Oil Prices To Stabilize

Oil Inventories will remain high in some parts of the world and will be drawn down in others. But overall, rising global oil demand and shrinking U.S. oil production (and other areas as well) will begin to eat away at inventory. It just requires some patience. There will be some foreshadowing in oil prices here.

When Will The Oil Prices Turn Around?

Pessimism increased about oil prices last week as second quarter earnings for U.S. E&P companies were released. Many tight oil producers announced higher production guidance for 2015. OPEC is producing more than half of the world production surplus and has the capacity to cut production by the entire amount of the surplus, but will not until its goals are achieved.

Oil Markets Could Be In For A Shock From China Soon

The oil market dynamics are complex and fluid. US shale supply is hugely important for oil prices, but one of the more underreported factors influencing the price of oil is the pace of demand growth coming from China. Any insight into this factor can provide clarity on the trajectory of oil prices.

Price Manipulation In The Oil Markets?

Whether price manipulation is occurring now in energy prices is debatable but be aware, as where there is smoke, there is fire. The question: When is enough, enough? When does it ultimately damage the faith in “free” trading in all assets among investors? Volumes have been declining reflecting a loss in investor confidence.

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