Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘OPEC’

Oil Prices are most Definitely Heading to the Upper US$30s

Oil is in a downtrend and risks trending into the $30’s. The future might be bright for oil prices but the present is not. Any immediate price gain would be “wishful thinking”. Oil producers are no longer hedging their production because oil prices have fallen too much. US shale continues to grow production & Libya is adding large volumes of supply back onto the market at the worst possible time.

Is This Oil Price Rally for Real or Just a Dead Cat Bounce?

What a difference a week makes. Oil prices are more than 9% above last Friday’s capitulation low. The bounce has legs in the short-term but it doesn’t alter the long-term bearish story. U.S. oil inventories just had their largest drop of 2017 & a fifth consecutive weekly decline. OPEC is expected to extend production cuts on May 25. Goldman reiterated its bullish call for an imminent supply deficit.

How Will Brexit Impact the UK's Oil and Gas Markets?

The level of concern surrounding Brexit & the UK’s energy market is slowly rising. The situation has been exacerbated by the details of a North Sea industry report, which suggest that Britain’s oil and gas trades bill could almost double to £1.1 billion per annum in a worse case Brexit scenario. This remains one of many small elements that underline the danger posed by Brexit, yet strike a huge blow.

Can An OPEC Production Cut Extension Push Oil Prices To $60?

Barring another bout of “geopolitical risk,” it seems only significant changes in oil fundamentals will deliver the boost OPEC needs. If OPEC succeeds in lengthening, or even deepening cuts & pulls Russia on board, there’s a chance that the IEA & Goldman’s prediction of a stabilizing oil market & a closer balance between supply & demand by the late-summer 2017 could come true.

OPEC on the Brink of Failure - The End to the Cartel may be Near

OPEC, which has far exceeded the average life of cartels, is on the brink of failure. Though cracks have been developing in the cartel since the start of the current oil crisis, it has managed to stay together so far. The success of the current OPEC deal for production cuts will decide its future as a cartel. If the OPEC members don’t act together, chances are that the cartel will come to an end very soon.

These Fundamentals Point To Higher Oil Prices

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

Don’t Worry about Oil Prices, Here’s How You Can Profit

I’m keeping a close eye on the oil market, and on the moves that Saudi Arabia is making to manipulate oil prices. Over time, Saudi Arabia will be unable to affect oil prices as much as they have been able to in the past. Prices for oil trade around $50 a barrel and recently set lows for the year, but I am actually more bullish on oil prices than was ever before. Here’s why.

Iran’s Oil Industry "Neither Shaken Nor Stirred" By New Sanctions

It does not seem that Trump’s new sanctions can do much to deter Iran. Political posturing in the form of targeted sanctions may cause anti-American sentiment in the country to flare-up as Iranian politicians paint Trump as the ultimate boogeyman, however, the scope of the unilateral sanctions will prevent any serious consequences to Iran’s oil sector moving forward.

Has Saudi Arabia Underestimated the Shale Oil Resilience yet Again?

Saudi Arabia seems unfazed from a possible rebound in U.S. shale. They still believe that current oil prices at around $50 are still not enough to herald a significant rebound of US shale production. Saudi Arabia’s oilmen may not lose sleep over U.S. shale resurgence, but it looks like they may have underestimated the shale resilience yet again, as was their idea of flooding the market with oil in 2014.

Reasons for Silver Demand to Explode have never been Stronger

The reasons for silver demand to explode – amidst an environment of verified peak production, and historically low above-ground, available for sale inventories, have never, in my very strong view, been stronger. Which is why, I might add, the opportunity to make a year-end tax swap, at an historically high gold/silver ratio of 69, may make sense to many investors.

Gold Prices Bounce from Key Support - Bull Market Intact

Gold could see a better tone this week assuming that the dollar takes a bit of a breather from its upward advance and if U.S. equity markets pause after several weeks of heady gains. Despite on a short-term sell signal, the gold sector remains firmly on a long-term buy signal. Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for investors holding for long term.

OPEC Rumours Continue To Pull Oil Prices Higher

Oil prices hit one a month high on Monday thanks to speculation about potential producer curbs on supply and new data from market intelligence firm Genscape showing an estimated draw of more than 350,000 barrels per day at the Cushing OK delivery point. Although oil prices reacted stoically on last week’s rig count report, the amount of rigs added to the Permian basin is starting to add up.

OIL - The Untold History of Black Gold & How it began the Political Strategies of the West

The political strategy of the U.S. had to adapt to provide for the needs & wants of the American population. The ‘70s marked the turning point when the U.S. shifted from being an oil exporter to the world’s largest oil importer. The oil crisis of 1973 was the game changer that transformed the international political & financial system into the current system of petrodollars & oil wars.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil Prices To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. Putting a number to his call: oil prices will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

The US Shale Industry Is Painfully Adapting to Low Oil Prices

The rise in oil prices over the past six months has come as a blessing for the battered US shale producers. Oil prices have risen more than 50% since January, giving a glimmer of hope to the US oil industry that the worst of the oil crisis might finally be behind them. Moreover, it forced the shale producers to adapt by reducing production costs and increasing efficiency.

With A Rebound In Oil Prices, Will Drilling Activity Return?

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

Why Oil Prices Will Rise And Many Will Be Caught By Surprise

Oil industry investment is far below levels required just to replace production. The only thing that will change the vector of these declines is lots of spending, and the only thing will spur lots more spending is higher oil prices. Just like all the oil bulls had to be run out during the declining price stage, all the price bears will be run out when fundamentals hit them over the head.

Oil Markets Increasingly Bullish As Long Positions Surge

The latest CFTC data show that short positions in WTI crude oil shrank again last week, dropping by 20% to the lowest level since June. In combination with a 2.4%t increase in long positions, net-longs increased by 17% – to the highest level since last June. Once again, this increase shows ‘much less bearish’ positioning, as opposed to ‘much more bullish’.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

Oil Price Volatility Off The Charts - What Explains The Incredible Volatility?

Oil prices are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, but the daily up & down moves are leaving investors with whip lash. What explains the volatility? What is new is the instability in the financial markets. China’s slowing growth; Emerging market currencies crashed; Fed rate hikes may or may not be forthcoming, etc. This all adds up to a period of incredible volatility.

follow us

markets snapshot


Market Quotes are powered by Investing.com

live commodity prices


Commodities are powered by Investing.com India

our latest tweets

follow us on facebook