Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Price of Gold’

Paper Gold Price is not the Real Price of Gold

The paper gold market sets the gold price – the paper price that the false gold market trades at. That has very little to do with the price of gold which is what the physical market would trade at if there was not a manipulated paper market. But buyers & sellers are not concerned about the real price of gold. Because they have no intention of owning the physical since they don’t understand its function.

Long-Term Prospects for Gold and Silver Unchanged, Despite Temporary Weakness

Given the selloff in recent weeks, silver is now up around 1-2% year-to-date, giving up most of its gains for the year, and gold is up around 5-6% – still positive though well off its double-digit gains into mid-April. I think what we’re seeing is not a massive move away from gold or silver, but a very short-term reaction. The long-term bullish outlook based on a lot of fundamental drivers remains unchanged.

Americans Pawn Gold To Go Further Into Debt: US Gold Scrap Market Drying Up

It is quite unfortunate that Americans have pawned off their best asset only to go further into debt. U.S. gold scrap supply in 2016 (58.7 metric tons) is nearly two and a half times less than it was in 2010 (143 metric tons). Americans pawned off a great deal more gold in 2010 when the price was lower at $1,225 compared to $1,267 in 2016. Which means, the U.S. gold scrap supply market is drying up.

Irrefutable Reasons for Gold Price to Rise to Unthinkable Levels

The gold price is primarily a reflection of the change of value of the paper money. If paper money is debased due to money printing or credit extension, the gold price measured in dollars or euro will increase. Thus, gold as a rule doesn’t go up in price but the value of paper money goes down. Here are some factors that will push the gold price to unthinkable levels measured in paper money.

High Uncertainty Makes This Completely Certain: High Gold Prices

Gold prices tend to fare well when there is a lot of uncertainty around. In today’s environment where you have got a lot of uncertainty, taking a bit of money off the table and putting it into something that will protect you, seems to make sense. Gold is a safe haven asset and in times of trouble it does tend to deliver the kind of insurance qualities that people look to it for.

Can't Afford to Miss Buying Physical Gold Now, Soon Most Won't Really Afford It

The conditions that are favorable for gold, will prove fatal for overvalued stocks that are looking for a trigger to tumble. Remember, diversification is crucial to any investment strategy. As a fraught 2017 unfolds, consider re-balancing your portfolio to accommodate the likely economic, business and market volatility ahead. You can hedge your bets, with physical gold.

Gold Prices Could Hit $1,500 in 2017 Amid Imbalances & Weak Supply

Gold and silver are off to a good start in 2017. We’ve talked earlier about negative real rates supporting prices, and some other potential market movers that could drive demand for the yellow metal specifically. Here’s Frank Holmes on more in terms of potential catalysts that may drive things for the rest of the year & about the more upside in the precious metals.

Gold Prices Likely to Stay Elevated on Safe Haven Demand

According to the Bloomberg Intelligence team, the Fed could be “one and done” in 2017 when it comes to rate hikes. Gold’s top forecaster for the last quarter, Intesa Sanpaola SpA, says that the metal’s price could hit $1,350 by year end, citing faster inflation and geopolitical tensions. “Gold will likely stay elevated given safe haven demand,” Barnabas Gan, economist at OCBC, said.

Gold is Good as an Inflation Hedge, but Better as a Crisis Hedge

Whether there is hyperinflation or a banking collapse, Gold has historically been the asset to own in times of turmoil. Given its intrinsic value and safe-haven status, there is no doubt that Gold will remain a wealth preservation tool during financial crises. Crises do not come along often, but when they do, it is better to be safe than sorry. Gold is the perfect crisis insurance.

Can Base Metals like Lead be Turned into Gold? Well! Actually YES

Can base metals such as lead actually be transmuted into gold? Surprisingly the answer is yes. Does this have any impact in the market price for gold? While gold can be created by artificial transmutation, precious metal owners have no need to fear. The price of precious metals has not and will not be affected by alchemy in the foreseeable future. Science still has a long way to go.

Opportunities to Buy Gold Cheap Dwindling - Watch-Out for this Indicator

The trend seems to be reversing: gold is up over 20% since its December 2015 low of $1,050/oz. and over 10% since the beginning of 2017. That means opportunities to get gold “on the cheap” may be dwindling, as the most recent price hike to $1,275/oz. this week indicates. One technical indicator has proved extraordinarily reliable in forecasting larger trend changes. Here it is.

Gold Prices Can Test $2,000 in 18 months on Weak Dollar & Geo-political Tensions

Part of the bullish case for gold prices is an emerging distrust towards U.S. geopolitical behavior & accelerating physical gold purchasing in the rest of the world. While some may be discussing the dollar or equities’ impact on gold prices, the driving factor behind the metal’s price will become “the loss in trust of leadership and governments and financial markets.

Analysis - The Macroeconomic Drivers of the Gold Price

There are essentially two types of gold price drivers worth discussing: measurable ones and those that cannot be measured. Most of the “measurable” macroeconomic fundamentals that are considered important drivers of the gold price are either mixed/neutral or bearish at the moment. However, there are good reasons to believe that several of them will turn gold-bullish.

Watch Out for Gold and Silver Amid Talk of War & Nuclear Conflict

Whenever the world starts going crazy, investors instinctively begin flocking to gold and silver. Investors that can see the writing on the wall are already getting out of stocks and into gold and silver while there is still time to do so. A direct military conflict with Russia & Iran in Syria or an attack on North Korea will crash financial markets while gold and silver will soar into the stratosphere.

Negative Real Rates to Drive Gold Prices Higher Despite Fed Hikes

With arguably the two biggest drivers of the gold price trending in the yellow metal’s favor, gold prices are likely to go higher. Although the dollar could rise if Washington implements some structural reform, real rates aren’t headed higher anytime soon based on the Fed’s actions. If past is prologue, as inflation rises over the coming months, gold will do very well.

Manipulative Attacks on Gold And Silver Failing to Yield Desired Results

The attacks on the price of gold persisted through Thursday, resulting in what appears to be a record weekly percentage drop in Comex gold open interest. But this attack resulted in a shallow price decline. And if you trace the build-up in the bullion bank short position over the past couple of weeks, it appears that the banks were willing to sustain losses on those shorted contracts in order to cover them.

Falling Mine Supply will Trigger Panicked Gold Buying & Higher Gold Prices

Once the price of physical gold starts to move up on basic supply and demand fundamentals & imbalances in the paper gold market, the stage is set for corresponding increases in paper gold prices. As more & more paper gold holders turn from the paper market to obtain physical gold, which is already in short supply in the physical market, we’ll see the beginning of a price super-spike.

Gold Bugs on Watch for Buy Signal & How Gold Prices React to Fed's Rate Hike

Despite gold being under pressure leading up to the next rate hike, Bank of America still sees prices rallying by around $200 by the end of the year. UBS and Goldman Sachs are also seeing opportunity for higher gold prices. Though sentiment conditions in the gold market have improved markedly & we are a lot closer to a contrarian gold buy signal than we were a couple of weeks ago, we’re not there yet.

Would You Invest in Gold And Silver Bullion or Bitcoin?

From $412, one year ago, to $1290 on Friday, bitcoin has gained over 200%. Compared to the price action in bitcoin, gold seems boring. While this is a virtue for gold to be used as money (and a vice for bitcoin), it does tend to attract those who just want to get into the hottest casino du jure. There’s more than enough irony to go around.

Inflation, US Dollar, Gold & the Interest Rate Action by the Fed

The evidence of inflation is starting to emerge. When will the markets begin to see that the Fed is not serious about nipping inflation in the bud? We don’t know the answer but any rate increase could be the one that looks too timid and too late compared to the inflation data. As the markets begin to take note, the dollar will weaken and gold will once again behave like an inflation hedge.

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