Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Price of Oil’

The Biggest Wildcard For Oil Prices Right Now - China

China’s record purchases, along with temporary production outages in Nigeria and Canada, helped rebalance supply and demand in the oil market. However, since that is now over, stopping shipments for the reserve would wipe out about 15% of the country’s imports & the price of oil would plunge as the already oversupplied market would find itself with an unprecedented glut of excess production.

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil Prices To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Longson has been one of the most bearish sellside analysts on oil, and overnight he confirmed he isn’t going to change his opinion any time soon. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. US crude oil stats are likely to trend bearish over the coming months. Putting a number to his call: oil prices will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Why Any Major Crash in Oil Prices Remains Unlikely

At oil prices below $40 a barrel, virtually no new drilling occurs. As a result, oil prices today may be artificially boosted by market speculation, but as long as they don’t go high enough to lead to significant new drilling, fundamentals will eventually catch up and production will fall dramatically. That in turn will support current oil prices and perhaps even higher prices in the future.

Why We Need Oil Prices to Rise to $120 Per Barrel or More

When oil prices fall from $100 per barrel to $50, the incomes of a large share of people are adversely affected. This drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items & is also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house.

Unsustainable Debt will Melt most Paper Assets - Buy Physical Gold and Silver

Inflation since the early 1980’s was forced into the broader markets rather than into energy and commodities. Which means, most Americans have this false sense of WEALTH, when in all reality, they are completely broke. When the markets really CRACK in a big way, investors will flock into gold and silver, just like they are doing today on a lousy jobs report.

Here's What Saudi Arabia’s New Oil Policy Will Look Like

Ali al-Naimi’s termination & Prince Mohammed’s official ascent to the top of the Saudi oil chain of command are likely bearish in the short term, as Saudi Arabia reverts to its 2014 strategy of pushing oil prices low enough to put marginal producers out of business. What does this mean for oil, since Khalid Al-Falih is likely to follow Naimi’s policy of safeguarding Saudi Arabia’s market share?

Are Central Banks Running the Crude Oil Market or Just the World?

The price of oil has been rising, no matter how bad the oversupply news gets. How today’s oil prices are really determined is done by a process so opaque only a handful of major oil trading banks have any idea who is buying or selling oil futures or derivative contracts that set physical oil prices in this strange new world of “paper oil”.

India Central Bank Cuts Rate 5th Time in 17 Months - Dollar Still Holding the Conn

India got the fifth rate cut from Rajan in the past 17-months, that has seen 150 Basis Points taken from the internal rate & traders sold rupees after the rate announcement. The dollar is still holding the conn again today & the dollar has even beaten back the Japanese yen. So once again, we are looking at an all-out assault by the dollar on the currencies and metals.

Why the Fall in Oil Prices is a Problem for Everyone

The increase of oil prices during the ‘70s caused inflation and recession in Europe & the US while oil producers were building a trade surplus & currency reserves. On the other end, in the late ‘80s & all of the ‘90s, the collapse of commodity prices contributed to a long period of economic growth in industrialized countries & caused serious problems for some oil producers.

Oil Jumps After Latest Output Freeze Meeting "News"

Oil producers including Gulf OPEC members support holding a meeting next month to discuss a deal to freeze output even without Iran. Given Iran’s determination to add an additional 1 million b/d of supply to an already glutted oil market, it’s still difficult to understand how “let’s freeze things at a record rate” is a viable way to permanently alleviate downside pressure.

The Oil Price Ceiling Has Been Set: "Above $40 And We Start Pumping Again"

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices & as more shale companies halt production, the 3 mmb/d oversupplied oil market will slowly return to equilibrium. The oil price war is about to enter its far more vicious, and far more lethal phase, and while it is unclear who ultimately wins, whether it is Shale or the Saudis, the loser is clear: anyone who bought into bets of an imminent oil bounce.

Who Says You Can't Pay Your Debts with Gold?

The Swiss Federal Customs Administration, reflected that $1.3 billion worth of gold bars were received, believed to be payment on two big bond payments due this month. With a loss of revenue from the drop in the price of oil, Venezuela may have to default on future bond payments. I wonder how the anti-gold crowd will spin this story that gold was used as a payment on debt?

Victory For Saudi Arabia, North Dakota's Largest Oil Producer Suspends All Fracking

Reuters reports, that North Dakota’s largest producer, Whiting Petroleum, would suspend all fracking, and that Continental Resources has effectively done the same after reporting that it no longer has any fracking crews working in the Bakken shale. It was also a confirmation that the Saudi plan to put high-cost producers on ice is working, if only temporarily.

Something Big Is About To Happen With Gold And Silver

I believe this is just the beginning of what will become an AVALANCHE of physical gold and silver buying. Right now there is only a hint of fear. Wait until the markets really start to tank as the price of oil heads below $20. All it would take would be the bankruptcy of a financial institution such as Deutsche Bank to push the whole thing over the cliff.

Gold Prices Are Soaring Right Now - Here's What's Next

The World Gold Council said it’s largest customers, China, India & Russia will be adding to their stockpiles of physical gold & that the global stock market turmoil would be enough to keep gold demand strong this year. Well, I would say that’s all fine and good, but the main currency that gold is concerned about is the dollar.

One-Fifth Of All Worldwide Stock Market Wealth Is Already Gone

As bad as things are in the U.S. right now, the truth is that we still have a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the planet. Around the world, many major stock market indexes are already down more than 30 or 40 percent. Overall, the MSCI All-Country World Index is now down 20 percent, which officially puts us in bear market territory.

Cash Flow Negative US Energy Companies Have $325 Billion In Debt Among Them

With the topic of distress among U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies becoming more important with every passing day that oil not only continues to drop, but certainly fails to rebound to levels that allow US energy companies to return to a cash flow positive state, we would like to show just how much debt is at stake.

Crude Oil Crash Of 2016 Has The Big Banks Running Scared

During the boom years, big banks gave out billions of dollars in loans to fund exceedingly expensive drilling projects all over the world. Now those firms are dropping like flies & the big banks could potentially be facing catastrophic losses. Since the start of 2015, 42 US oil companies have filed for bankruptcy. The longer the price of oil stays low, the worse the carnage will get.

How Oversupplied is the Oil Market Really?

My conclusion is that this market is only marginally oversupplied and represents approximately 1.5% of the global oil market. If the above assumptions prove accurate then we could very well see an oil market that is in equilibrium if not undersupplied by the end of 2016. My guess is the price of oil begins to move higher long before that moment actually occurs.

Here’s What Happens to Gold When Interest Rates Go Up

Investors are apt to unload gold in anticipation of tightening monetary policies. This negative pressure is sustained until the Fed announces a rate hike, which then eases the negative sentiment towards gold. This explains the subsequent rallies in gold that occurred shortly after the Fed announced the first rate hike in the last four tightening cycles.

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