Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Rate of Inflation’

Negative Interest Rates: The Tax On Capital

Negative interest rates remove the positive “interest” paid to savers which is supposed to (partially) protect us from the rapacious “real inflation” running at 10+% per year. They go well beyond even this level of economic theft & criminality. Negative interest rates tax capital. How do you “stimulate” an economy by taxing capital? The inevitable result can only be the complete economic destruction.

How will the US Elections Affect Equities and Gold?

The experience of losing money is common in investing. But where is the certitude of loss even before your check clears? That’s the situation with sovereign debt right now. Gold is money and money is sterile. It does not pay dividends or earn income. I don’t suggest that it is the only thing that people should have their money in. But to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder.

Gold and Silver - In the World of Absurd Statistics of Inflation

The real rate of inflation in Western economies is already soaring higher at 10+ % per year. Either before or concurrent with such a mea culpa, we will see the One Bank’s choke-hold over the precious metals sector also be shattered. Suppressing gold and silver prices in a high-inflation world is not feasible. At roughly the same time, we will see both inflation statistics & PMs start to soar higher.

Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System

The grim reality is that real rate of inflation is 7+% per year, and this reality must be hidden behind bogus official calculations of inflation as this reality would collapse the entire status quo. Who’s being destroyed by 7+% real inflation? Everyone whose income has stagnated and everyone who depends on wages rather than assets to get by–in other words, the bottom 95%.

The Most Important Reason Why Gold and Silver Will Continue to Rally

Today, though, interest-bearing assets are, in some cases, not even yielding pennies on the dollar. Bank CDs probably aren’t even yielding 1%, and Treasury yields are still bordering their lowest yields in history. What this means is that the opportunity cost of a sub-1% yield for CDs and money market accounts, or a near-record low yield for T-bonds, makes owning gold and silver more attractive.

Silly Myths about Gold during Rising Interest Rates

The myth of rising rates being bad for hard assets persists in spite of data that show the exact opposite is true. Meanwhile, spot gold prices have traded below mining production costs for much of the year – presaging supply destruction in the months ahead. That is a far more important development in the outlook for precious metals markets than anything the Fed did or said this week.

Rate Hike Or No - The Fed Will Not Kill Gold

The Fed either raises rates by 25 basis points in December, or it doesn’t. Both scenarios are actually bullish for gold. Doing nothing is good for gold for obvious reasons. But if they actually do hike, the gold market has already discounted the rate increase, likely factoring in substantially more than 25 basis points.

An Insight into the Future Price of Gold

Real interest rates are one of the best predictors of the nominal dollar price of gold. When real interest rates are low (or negative), that gives gold a boost. When real interest rates are high, that puts downward pressure on gold. This easily understandable correlation is much stronger than other correlations such as the stock market or economic growth.

Beating Inflation Could Get Even Harder

Financial repression basically means ensuring savers can’t beat inflation. When savers lose out, debtors win. And our government is one of the biggest debtors around. The classic tools of financial repression include encouraging positive inflation, holding interest rates down below that level & limiting the options for savers looking to maintain their standard of living.

U.S. Wages Have Fallen EVERY Quarter of the Recovery

What has been difficult to document in a definitive way has been the fall in U.S. wages. The problem is that to express U.S. wages meaningfully, we must use “real dollars”, i.e. adjust these wages for inflation. With the U.S. government only providing nominal data about U.S. wages & consistently lying about the actual inflation rate; there’s a lack of data to make any conclusive statement.

All Economic Data Are Lies

The scariest part of it all is that the data most utilized by the Federal Reserve, in determining how many dollars to print out of thin air, are the employment lies & the “twin towers” of inflation understatement; i.e., the CPI and GDP. Lying about the rate of inflation is an activity which comes more naturally to central bankers than breathing.

How to Start Reforming the Federal Reserve Right Now

Inputs into the newly introduced so-called “Taylor Rule” to reform the Federal Reserve, involve key magnitudes such as “neutral rate of interest”, “the natural rate of unemployment” & “targeted rate of inflation.” Republicans by now should have realized, monetary reform should first involve jettisoning neo-Keynesian economics.

Which way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities

Rapid growth of the money supply usually fuels higher rates of inflation. It’s the narrative about low inflation & weak Gold prices that enables the endless printing of money by central banks. Bubbles in the European and US bond & stock markets can be sustained in the stratosphere, only as long as inflation is “SAID” to be running near-zero.

Is The Economic Recovery Only Statistical?

Since economic recoveries should be a function of economic prosperity across the national spectrum, is the current economic recovery achieving that goal? While Wall Street & top 20% of the population have certainly enjoyed the surge in asset prices due to Fed interventions, has the other 80% seen an increase in prosperity too?

Inflation Does Not Produce Economic Growth

How is it possible that higher price inflation will make the economy stronger? If price inflation slightly above 2% is good for the economy, why not aim at a much higher rate & make the economy more healthier? Monetary pumping to lift rate of price inflation will only deepen economic impoverishment.

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