Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Rate of Inflation’

Inflation Is Much Higher Than Officially Announced - Do You Yet Want More?

On the one hand, government agencies are bending over backward to under-report inflation. On the other, the Federal Reserve is whining that inflation is too low and their efforts to push it higher have failed. More honest and accurate estimates of real-world inflation is around 7% or even as high as 10% in high-cost metro areas, not 2%. So why does the Fed yet want higher inflation?

What Role May Trumps' Policies Play in Creating Inflation

Among the main drivers of higher inflation expectations, one is the idea that a larger fiscal deficit will inevitably lead to higher inflation. The Trump program calls for higher defense expenditures and increased infrastructure spending. The perception in the financial markets is that fiscal spending and tax cuts add up to higher deficits, which would almost certainly imply higher inflation.

Inflation, US Dollar, Gold & the Interest Rate Action by the Fed

The evidence of inflation is starting to emerge. When will the markets begin to see that the Fed is not serious about nipping inflation in the bud? We don’t know the answer but any rate increase could be the one that looks too timid and too late compared to the inflation data. As the markets begin to take note, the dollar will weaken and gold will once again behave like an inflation hedge.

7 Federal Reserve Tools and Why They’re All Flawed

Here is a survey of seven Federal Reserve tools in the Fed toolkit to stimulate the economy if recession or deflation gains the upper hand and why their toolkit is flawed. Their toolkit consisting of interest rate hikes to fight inflation, and a litany of tools to fight deflation, shows that the Fed will be fully engaged in manipulating the U.S. economy for an indefinite period of time.

With US Dollar so Strong, How come Gold Prices are yet so High?

Gold is about to have one of its worst quarters in nearly 35 years, but its price is still significantly higher than it should be right now & there does not seem to be any real reason why. Gold may have dropped by over 17% since its peak in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU, but it is still significantly overvalued, and Macquarie can’t work out why.

Opportunistic Investors' 9 Reasons for Having No Fear of Falling Silver Prices

Precious metal mining stocks had been the shining stars of Wall Street in 2016. This recent swoon in silver prices isn’t a time to panic. Instead, it could be time to go shopping. There are, in fact, numerous fundamental and psychological reasons to believe that silver prices could soon find a floor and resume their bull market run.

Choking Inflation is last thing the Fed wants now - Good for Gold

The Fed will not raise rates for the fun of it. The Fed wants to keep inflation under control, but what the organization really wants is negative real rates. That’s where inflation is higher than nominal rates. It does the Fed no good to raise rates unless inflation is going up even faster. Yet that’s exactly when gold does its job of preserving wealth.

Negative Interest Rates: The Tax On Capital

Negative interest rates remove the positive “interest” paid to savers which is supposed to (partially) protect us from the rapacious “real inflation” running at 10+% per year. They go well beyond even this level of economic theft & criminality. Negative interest rates tax capital. How do you “stimulate” an economy by taxing capital? The inevitable result can only be the complete economic destruction.

How will the US Elections Affect Equities and Gold?

The experience of losing money is common in investing. But where is the certitude of loss even before your check clears? That’s the situation with sovereign debt right now. Gold is money and money is sterile. It does not pay dividends or earn income. I don’t suggest that it is the only thing that people should have their money in. But to me, gold is a very timely way to invest in monetary disorder.

Gold and Silver - In the World of Absurd Statistics of Inflation

The real rate of inflation in Western economies is already soaring higher at 10+ % per year. Either before or concurrent with such a mea culpa, we will see the One Bank’s choke-hold over the precious metals sector also be shattered. Suppressing gold and silver prices in a high-inflation world is not feasible. At roughly the same time, we will see both inflation statistics & PMs start to soar higher.

Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System

The grim reality is that real rate of inflation is 7+% per year, and this reality must be hidden behind bogus official calculations of inflation as this reality would collapse the entire status quo. Who’s being destroyed by 7+% real inflation? Everyone whose income has stagnated and everyone who depends on wages rather than assets to get by–in other words, the bottom 95%.

The Most Important Reason Why Gold and Silver Will Continue to Rally

Today, though, interest-bearing assets are, in some cases, not even yielding pennies on the dollar. Bank CDs probably aren’t even yielding 1%, and Treasury yields are still bordering their lowest yields in history. What this means is that the opportunity cost of a sub-1% yield for CDs and money market accounts, or a near-record low yield for T-bonds, makes owning gold and silver more attractive.

Silly Myths about Gold during Rising Interest Rates

The myth of rising rates being bad for hard assets persists in spite of data that show the exact opposite is true. Meanwhile, spot gold prices have traded below mining production costs for much of the year – presaging supply destruction in the months ahead. That is a far more important development in the outlook for precious metals markets than anything the Fed did or said this week.

Rate Hike Or No - The Fed Will Not Kill Gold

The Fed either raises rates by 25 basis points in December, or it doesn’t. Both scenarios are actually bullish for gold. Doing nothing is good for gold for obvious reasons. But if they actually do hike, the gold market has already discounted the rate increase, likely factoring in substantially more than 25 basis points.

An Insight into the Future Price of Gold

Real interest rates are one of the best predictors of the nominal dollar price of gold. When real interest rates are low (or negative), that gives gold a boost. When real interest rates are high, that puts downward pressure on gold. This easily understandable correlation is much stronger than other correlations such as the stock market or economic growth.

Beating Inflation Could Get Even Harder

Financial repression basically means ensuring savers can’t beat inflation. When savers lose out, debtors win. And our government is one of the biggest debtors around. The classic tools of financial repression include encouraging positive inflation, holding interest rates down below that level & limiting the options for savers looking to maintain their standard of living.

U.S. Wages Have Fallen EVERY Quarter of the Recovery

What has been difficult to document in a definitive way has been the fall in U.S. wages. The problem is that to express U.S. wages meaningfully, we must use “real dollars”, i.e. adjust these wages for inflation. With the U.S. government only providing nominal data about U.S. wages & consistently lying about the actual inflation rate; there’s a lack of data to make any conclusive statement.

All Economic Data Are Lies

The scariest part of it all is that the data most utilized by the Federal Reserve, in determining how many dollars to print out of thin air, are the employment lies & the “twin towers” of inflation understatement; i.e., the CPI and GDP. Lying about the rate of inflation is an activity which comes more naturally to central bankers than breathing.

How to Start Reforming the Federal Reserve Right Now

Inputs into the newly introduced so-called “Taylor Rule” to reform the Federal Reserve, involve key magnitudes such as “neutral rate of interest”, “the natural rate of unemployment” & “targeted rate of inflation.” Republicans by now should have realized, monetary reform should first involve jettisoning neo-Keynesian economics.

Which way is Inflation Blowing? Watch Commodities

Rapid growth of the money supply usually fuels higher rates of inflation. It’s the narrative about low inflation & weak Gold prices that enables the endless printing of money by central banks. Bubbles in the European and US bond & stock markets can be sustained in the stratosphere, only as long as inflation is “SAID” to be running near-zero.

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