Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Rig Count’

Slump In Oil Prices May Burn The Oil Industry Again

When oil prices fall, volatility increases & the floodgates of capital open. Every genius-investor wants to buy low & sell high. Rig count rises with fresh capital, production increases & oil prices fall. When oil prices rose from $26 in mid-Feb to over $51 by early June, the rig count change rate exploded. Predictably, oil prices are falling again on continuing the same thing that got you in trouble before.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Oil prices have bounced around a bit after last week but have held more or less in the range of $43 per barrel for WTI and $45 for Brent. The price gains over the past few weeks come as the fundamentals have improved. Oil production is expected to continue to fall through 2017 as too few new wells come online to replace rapidly falling shale output.

The Worse Than 1986 Downturn In Oil Prices Has No Parallel In Recorded History

If oil prices follow the path suggested by the forward curve, and essentially remain rangebound around levels seen in the last 2-3 months, this downturn would be more severe than that in 1986. This does not bode well for everyone who has unwittingly thrown good money after bad on the assumption that the Saudis will cut production and trigger a rebound in crude oil prices.

Forget The Noise: Oil Prices Won’t Crash Again

The big story in oil prices was the rig count on the way down. The big story on the way up will be inventory. Look for WTI crude oil to make a move towards and maybe into the $70’s as clarity strikes the market. Look too for more walls of worry but remember to consider the source.

Oil Price Recovery May Be Too Much Too Soon

The rise in oil prices over the last few weeks has been so rapid that few predicted it. Speculators have raised their bullish bets to the highest level in years. The optimism may not be justified. In the past, bets to such a degree have often been followed by a fallback in prices. Oil inventories are still at 80 year highs.

The Coming May Oil "Buy Signal”

According to a U.S. EIA report, the huge surge of growth for the past five years in America’s shale patch is coming to an end. This is a watershed moment for the U.S. shale boom — and a vitally important moment for investors, too. So what does this mean for the price of oil? And what does this mean for shale producers?

The Top 12 Media Myths On Oil Prices

The upstream oil and gas industry is not a black hole. Its only when the media gets a hold of it, it all becomes complicated. There is so much hyperbole and unsupported guesswork that investors don’t have a chance. So, in a small effort to set the record straight, let’s see if we can’t dispel some of the misinformation.

Could We Finally Have A Meaningful Oil Price Rally?

There are a few reasons for the newfound bullishness in oil prices. First, rig count declines are starting to slow. Second, a likelihood that production has also flattened and is approaching a decline. Another reason for the oil price surge was due to the markets shaking off concern that Iranian crude will suddenly flood the market.

Low Oil Prices Are A Saudi Attack On Iran — But You Can Defend Yourself

The Saudis’ primary motivation in crashing oil prices last November was to harm Iran. In other words, low oil prices are not about hurting Russia because of Ukraine; nor slowing the advance in North American fracking. The Saudi idea is to squeeze the bank accounts of the Mullahs in Teheran.

OPEC Pressure on Global Oil Market Continues

The rig count in the Middle East continues to climb, hitting a new record in Feb. This is a clear indication that OPEC has NO intentions of easing up on their overproduction of oil anytime soon. OPEC has two targets in this campaign & the effectiveness of its strategy cannot be denied. WTI Crude is once again below the $50 mark.

Oil Rig Count Decline Is Not Sufficient To Slow US Oil Production: Goldman

Goldman Sachs: Rig count decline is still not sufficient to achieve the slowdown in US production growth required to balance the oil market. We reiterate our view that oil prices need to remain lower in the coming quarters in order for the announced capex guidance and rig reduction to materialize into sufficiently lower production growth.

Why Price Of Oil Is More Inclined Towards $20 Than $80

If the price of oil stays at this level for the rest of the year, we are going to see a whole bunch of energy companies fail, billions of dollars of debt issued by energy companies could go bad, and trillions of dollars of derivatives related to the energy industry could implode. This is just the beginning of the oil crisis.

Why Citi Thinks Oil Is Going To $20

Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) – after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.

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