Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Shale Drilling’

Rally in Oil Prices is Fundamentally Driven, not Based on Speculation

Oil prices are at their highest since the start of 2017, after rising above the key $50-a-barrel mark in Sept & holding those gains. Rather than pure speculation, this move is rooted in fundamentals: falling inventories and increasing demand. The outlook for crude is no less bright as U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts financed by additional deficit spending, could also send oil prices higher.

These Fundamentals Point To Higher Oil Prices

Investors overlooked the bearish news of crude stocks that still remain at all-time highs, because of another more interesting development. Gasoline stocks have declined rather significantly in recent weeks, at a much faster rate than at this point in the 2016 season as demand is rising. That, along with a few more reasons, makes one surely feel optimistic about oil prices.

With A Rebound In Oil Prices, Will Drilling Activity Return?

On June 6, Morgan Stanley released a report saying that “all eyes” are on the U.S. to see if drilling will return now that oil prices are back above $50, after having rallied roughly 85% since February. There are a few early signs that drilling is starting to begin again. The oil rig count jumped by nine last week to 325 active oil rigs, the sharpest increase since December 2015.

The Current Rally In Oil Prices Is Reaching Its Limits

Oil prices have climbed by about 50% from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But now, with oil traders taking the most bullish positions in months while the fundamentals still have not shifted in a correspondingly significant fashion, traders have set up the conditions where oil prices could snap back to the downside.

Job Cuts Surge As Outlook On Oil Prices Remains Sober

It may be too early to determine whether oil prices, which began falling a year ago, were now forcing the energy industry to go beyond cutting fat & is now gouging into the very sinew of its operations, but it’s clear that they’re convinced that other economies simply weren’t enough to keep themselves afloat. The job losses probably should come as no surprise.

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