Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Unemployment Rate’

Rate Hike Largely Priced into Gold and Silver - What about Rationality in Sell-off?

Could the FED finally raise rates before 2016 draws to a close? That sounds plausible in theory, but there are a number of factors that do not support a rate hike in the near term. But even if they do hike rates, this move is already largely priced into gold and silver. We should question the rationality of this sell off. After all, the gold price often moves higher along with interest rates.

Why The US Consumer Will Cause The Next Crisis

The market is materially mispricing the strength of the US consumer whose weakness will lead the US economy into a recession in Q117. The divergence is a result of the top 40% of earners who have accrued 84% of all new income and only 34% of new debt since 2013. This strength has driven headline sales figures and accounted for nearly all deleveraging since the financial crisis.

Silver Prices Expected to Slide Further - But Won't Stay There for Long

Silver could be setting up for another near-term slip prior to resuming its long-term bullish trend as this week progresses. In the absence of any significant shortcomings in the US data, silver prices should have some substantial downside potential in the coming weeks. The long-term bias remains bullish so don’t expect to see the metal stray far below the 17.849 mark.

Latest Jobs Data Confirms This Is The Worst Expansion in 30 Years

To get a better sense of the jobs situation in context, though, we need to look beyond the headline data & delve more deeply into what the BLS is reporting. When we take discouraged workers & involuntary part timers into account, we’re still experiencing some of the highest unemployment numbers in 20 years. And this is taking changes in the overall labor force size into account.

Is There A Better Insurance Against Global Risk Than Gold? I Doubt It!

Negative rates kill the incentive to save & without savings, there will be no investments or growth in the economy. But the biggest disaster is hitting the pension sector. When risks are major, it is critical to protect yourself against them. It is not a coincidence that some of the most successful investors in the world are recommending physical gold as insurance against these risks.

Low Oil Prices Didn’t Boost Consumer Spending, Nor The Economy - Here's Why

There is no question that lower oil prices have been a big windfall for consumers. But we’re not seeing much evidence that consumers are spending those gains on other goods or services. While a sharp increase in oil prices can reduce U.S. GDP growth, it’s harder to see evidence of significant net gains for U.S. GDP from a sharp decline in oil prices. Here is why.

Buy Silver With Both Hands On This Manipulated Sell-Off

I suggested at the beginning of the year that buying silver now would prove to be the trade of the decade. I maintain that call and currently is up over 8% YTD. I would suggest that all sell-offs in silver should be bought. Gold has been hit for as much as $23 last week and silver for 66 cents. You can leverage your trade in silver with mining stocks.

All You Need To Know About The US Economy: True Unemployment Is Over 12%

How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment? Something about the U.S. economy isn’t adding up. Either the unemployment data or the GDP calculation is very much wrong. Last week’s failure by the Fed to hike rates is a direct confirmation that nothing with the US economy is as strong as the 5.1% unemployment rate suggests.

The Real Reasons Why The Fed May Hike Interest Rates

With a complex and disaster-prone system of interdependence causing social strife and chaos, why not just simplify everything with a global currency and perhaps even global governance? The elites will squeeze the collapse for all it’s worth if they can, and a Fed rate hike may be exactly what they need to begin the final descent.

3 Possible Paths the Fed Might Take Next Week

It is anticipated the Fed would finally raise interest rates. Powerful voices such as former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers & IMF Chief Christine Lagarde have been warning Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the global economy is too weak to bear interest rate increases. There are three possible outcomes in our “probability cloud” for the Sept. 17 Fed FOMC meeting.

Could Gold Prices Soar in September?

Gold prices began this week on a slightly negative note as prices drifted back towards their lowest levels since mid-August after US payrolls data failed to provide clarity on the timing of a US Fed rate hike. People are also waiting to see what’s going on in China. That & the Fed rate decision will be the most important factors for gold prices over the next days.

A Sept Rate Hike Is Not Even Close: Goldman's 7 Reasons Why Yellen Will Delay... Again

On one hand, every economist, virtual portfolio manager, Yahoo Finance Twitter expert & TV talking head is certain that a September rate hike is inevitable. On the other hand, the bank that runs the NY Fed, Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its call that the Fed will not hike in September. So here is Goldman’s Jan Hatzius with seven reasons why Yellen will delay. Again.

No Fed Rate Hike In September - Goldman Sachs

The market’s initial reaction signals rising expectations of a September rate hike but, as Goldman’s Jan Hatzius explains, with a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the August Current Activity Indicator is +2.8%, in line with the July figure. So they continue to expect the FOMC to keep policy rates unchanged at the September 16-17 meeting.

Can Crude Oil Prices Continue To Rally Like This?

Japanese inflation data mirrored that of Germany, and was flat MoM, with YoY inflation dropping to +0.2%. In terms of inflation, the US is in a similar position to both Germany and Japan, in that should oil prices stay around current levels, it will too see inflation data coming in as flat as a beaver’s tail by year-end.

Will A Possible Hike In Interest Rates Hit Energy Markets?

While both the equity rally and the commodity sell-off appear overdone, logic dictates that these trends could well continue in the face of an improving economy and rising interest rates. But at the risk of ignoring cognitive dissonance, financial markets also seem ripe for a counterintuitive move, as indicators reach extremes: commodities could rebound amid a correction in equities.

Payrolls Preview: Seasonal Bounce In Jobs But Wage Growth May Disappoint - Goldman

Recent data on wage growth have disappointed expectations. We think the Fed would take comfort from a pickup in wages, as the level of wage growth provides a useful cross-check on the amount of slack remaining in the labor market. Fundamentals argue for at least a modest improvement in wage growth in coming quarters, in our view. – Goldman.

Not Just Debt: Government Spending & Easy Money Fuel Greek Crisis

It is not debt as such that is behind the current crisis in Greece. Large government outlays and strong increases in the money supply are being ignored in most analyses of the Greek crisis. Loose fiscal and monetary policies have been instrumental in the generation of various non-productive activities that have been squandering wealth.

Higher Than Expected Jobs, Give Yellen Green Light To Hike Rates

While the strong jobs number is strong enough to give Yellen a green light for a September rate hike (or even June), what is most notable is the jump in average hourly earnings, which rose by 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, & well above the 0.1% in April, suggesting the slack in the labor force is indeed evaporating.

Why Dodgy US Jobs Data is Keeping Gold Prices Down

Low unemployment rate will be used as evidence to prevent the dollar from rising. If the US dollar retains its current strength, then gold prices won’t move higher in the short term. There’s no reason for a mass market movement into hard assets like gold if the US dollar is strong and the official inflation rate is low.

Government Control of Currency A Good Reason To Hold Physical Gold and Silver

Governments want total control of your money & if they need your money they won’t hesitate to steal it from your account. Average savers can no longer rely on the state to protect their deposits. This is a good reason for depositors to allocate some of their funds to physical gold and silver stored outside of the banking system.

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