Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Unemployment’

The Fed's Measure of Inflation is Furthest from American Reality

Ben Bernanke first set an official inflation target in January 2012, aiming at 2%. Has it been achieved? Well, it depends on how you measure inflation. There are many to choose from. The Fed has chosen the one that is most suppressed and furthest from the experience of most American households. So the Fed can pretend that inflation is “too low,” whatever that means.

America’s Hidden Jobless Rate is a Product of This Conspiracy

The jobless numbers are actually part of a much larger mainstream “conspiracy” that goes the heart of the way economies work in 21st century America. There are something like 100 million Americans not working, including older people and young people. That’s a fairly well accepted statistic. These people are not counted in the jobless figures though in fact they may want to work.

Gold Prices are Consolidating, Instead of Correcting - Pulling back for a Bigger Leap?

Gold has now spent two full months trading between US$1,210 and US$1,270 per oz. The lowest point of that range still has the yellow metal up 12% compared to the start of the year. Instead of correcting, gold is consolidating. You can think of that as correcting through time rather than price. Doing so proves the move was valid. Gold equities have also held their ground.

Physical Gold, the Misery Index and Monetary Insanity

The official national debt of $19 trillion, measured in gold, is about 15 billion ounces – around 100 times the quantity of gold supposedly stored in Fort Knox. Given the insanity of endless borrow & spend programs, ever increasing debt, overpriced stocks & bonds, desperation & delusions, and more … have you stacked physical gold in preparation for the inevitable consequences?

A Stock Market Correction Has Only Been Postponed, Not Avoided

Markets are relieved that the Fed won’t hike rates in March. But, the markets are never satisfied. Getting stock market expectations aligned with the intended FOMC policy path will not be pretty. Expect higher volatility and stock market drawdowns in April and May as markets reprice. A further stock market correction has been postponed, but not avoided.

Negative Rates Confirm The Failure Of Globalization: Deutsche Bank

Negative interest rates may or may not be a thing of the past, but the confusion about their significance remains. Here is Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam explaining how, among many other things including why Europe will need to “tax” cash before this final Keynesian experiment is finally over, negative rates are merely the logical failure of globalization.

Will a March Fed Rate Hike lead to Crashing Market Expectations?

Will a Fed rate hike in March lead to a train wreck by crashing into market expectations? It depends on whether Janet Yellen can signal the markets that her Cannonball Express is not stopping. Casey Jones died frantically pulling the train’s whistle. Janet Yellen needs to start blowing the Fed’s whistle and warning markets now — before it’s too late.

Why Gold Is Surging: BofA Says To Expect A "Massive Policy Shift In 2016"

This is how investors should trade this “massive policy shift”: Short Wall Street, buy gold. If accurate this could be the biggest policy shift since the artificial price controls were imposed on gold by the BIS trading desk in September 2011 when the SNB unleashed its now failed currency peg, just hours after gold hit its all time nominal high just shy of $2000.

5 Trends That Are Shredding the Global Economy

In the wake of the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009, central banks launched monetary stimulus programs aimed at pumping money into the economy. The stated goals of these stimulus programs were 1) boost employment and 2) generate enough inflation to stave off deflation, which is generally viewed as the cause of financial depressions.

When it Comes to Recession and Deflation, the Fed is the Last to Know

The Federal Reserve keeps forecasting a rosy scenario with 5% unemployment, 2.5% growth & 2% inflation. Yet the Fed has the worst forecasting record of any major institution. Their forecasts have been consistently wrong. Actual data show unemployment higher, growth lower and inflation lower than the Fed expects. Deflation is the Fed’s worst nightmare.

10 Reasons Why The Fed Won't Raise Interest Rates

The Fed won’t raise interest rates because we haven’t hit our full unemployment (moving) target. Also, the IMF warned about potential risks of a Fed tightening. Weakening of commodity prices could be bad news if it indicates global demand is weakening. The Fed is watching out for inflation, but we haven’t hit the magic 2% target yet. Here are some more reasons why.

12 Ways - US Economy In Worse Shape Than Was During The Last Recession

An “economic collapse” is unfolding right now before our very eyes. But what most people really mean when they ask about these things is that they are wondering when the next great financial crisis will happen. Here is a bunch of charts and statistics that show that economic conditions in the U.S. are already substantially worse than they were during the last recession.

When It Comes To Total Debt, Greece Is Not Much Worse Than France Or USA

The problem France will find further down the road is that its own debt dynamics & sustainability is also highly questionable. Estimates we have used before with calculations for the present value of unfunded liabilities (as a % of GDP) show that its not Spain or Italy that have the worst long-term debt sustainability issues; its the US & France & then surprisingly, Germany.

Conspiracy Theory: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants

From an economic perspective, Greece shows “internal devaluation,” – which is a very polite way of saying plunging wages, labor costs, and generally benefits, including pensions. Goldman essentially says that it is in the ECB’s & Europe’s, best interest to have a Greek default – and with limited contagion at that – one which finally does impact the EUR lower.

Repatriation Of Gold From Fed Suggests Historic Vote Of No Confidence

Over the last few years, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Ecuador, Finland, Switzerland, Venezuela & Romania have either formally requested repatriation of their gold or are in discussions with the Fed about it. Something huge must of happened in the last few years to prompt such action.

A Necessary Correction in the Oil Industry

The short-term pain the oil industry is currently facing is necessary & none must not stop this natural process through misguided stimulus in an effort to prevent oil company layoffs. Such efforts are likely to only benefit giant oil companies, as seen in the wake of the 2008 crisis where the biggest banks were the biggest winners.

Gold: The Good, Bad, and Truly Ugly

Dollars, Euros, Yen, and other unbacked fiat currencies have been printed to excess for decades. A vulnerable and dangerous financial system that is increasingly leveraged is a bubble in search of a pin. Accidents happen! Protect yourself and insure your assets with gold and silver – The real money for 5,000 years.

Greece Says ‘No’ To Fake Bail-Outs – Jeff Nielsen

With a sane (and apparently honest/legitimate) government achieving election in Greece; the past six years of European “bail-out” fraud is about to be fully exposed. Indeed, the recent history of Greece, alone, is little more than a road-map of fraud, conclusively illustrated by a concise summation of events.

China’s Monumental Debt Trap: Why It Will Rock The Global Economy

China is caught in a monumental debt trap. There will undoubtedly be a long series of cuts before China sweats out its hangover from a $26 trillion credit boom. Debt has risen from 100pc to 250pc of GDP in eight years. It means that China is the New Greece—-but one sporting 40X more GDP and 70X more debt.

Nine Years on, People Forget How Nasty an Interest Rate Increase Can Be

If the Fed raises rates, I would expect for the US economy to come close to a recession, more deflation & probably some disruption in equity markets. If they don’t raise rates as the decision is data-dependent & it’s coming in weak – you might actually see stocks higher at the end of the year than they are now based on more free money.

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