Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘US Dollar Index’

Will Downward Trend in Gold and Silver Continue? A Look at Inflation is All You Need to Know

Despite this temporary setback, the long-term outlook is still looking positive for gold and silver. Financial turmoil is always a driving factor for additional bullion investments. Trump’s victory sent copper prices soaring more than $1,000, its best weekly performance since 1979. As a byproduct of base metal extraction, silver to rise on increased infrastructure spending & gold on inflation.

Time for Patiently Using Corrections & Patterns to Build Gold Positions

The correction is providing an opportunity to enter stocks that we thought got away. The question is precisely when to make those moves. If historic patterns around W-shaped corrections & reactions of gold to rate hikes persist, we could be looking at a strong start to 2017. This fall may be the time for patience & using patterns to position your portfolio for gold’s next leg up.

Price of Gold Could Rise a Lot Higher - In Fact Double

There’s a difference between the narrative, which is what you’re being told, versus the reality of the economic data. It’s in no one’s interest ahead of the election to say the U.S. economy is a mess. If the flood of bad economic data continues, the Fed will almost certainly print more money or cut interest rates. And that could easily send the price of gold through the roof.

Gold and Silver Bull Market Correction - The Cause & Eventual Powerful Rallies

With China closed the markets were open for rampant manipulation. The carnage in gold and silver bullion and mining shares represents a great buying opportunity because eventually these paper games will stop working. This is a bull market, and bull markets naturally experience corrections. Don’t let the correction knock you out of your positions, or prevent you from buying the dip.

Strength of Gold Against Foreign Currencies Confirms Bull Market Status

If Gold is going up only because of a falling US$, that is a US$ bear market, not a Gold bull market. A Gold bull market is Gold rising against the majority of currencies. Gold’s strength in foreign currencies confirms its global bull market status and provides a hint that more gains for Gold in US$ terms are likely ahead. We view any weakness in the weeks ahead as a buying opportunity.

The Medium-Term Gold Market Outlook Deteriorated Substantially Last Week

While the long-term outlook for gold could hardly be better, the short to medium-term outlook deteriorated substantially last week, with an important chart reversal on Thursday that was not negated by Friday’s bounce-back. Gold reversed violently intraday to close well down on Thursday on high volume, leaving behind a classic “shooting star” reversal on its chart.

Silver Futures Near $16.30 Resistance - Will Silver Prices Break Through?

Silver futures for May delivery climbed to $16.13 a troy ounce, putting it on pace for the highest close of the year on the Comex. Silver futures are likely to face stiff resistance near $16.30, a price level that has been difficult to penetrate since September 2015. A clear break above that level could expose a further upside rally in silver futures in the coming months.

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A Truly Generational Opportunity

Despite my ongoing belief that we are now in a corrective phase for the precious metals, I think that owning silver versus owning gold is a high-probability trade that could be the 2016 Trade of the Year. I am going to put on a trade this week that effectively favors silver over gold and is a high-risk method of shorting the Gold-to-Silver Ratio.

Gold Retreats as US Fed Members Turn Hawkish in Rate Hikes

Gold had been gaining traction earlier last week following a dovish report by Janet Yellen, the US Federal Reserve chairperson. Gold prices retreated following the rise in the US dollar index. With investors offsetting their positions to take profits and a hawkish view by other Fed members, the sentiment for gold seems to be negative.

How Much More Higher Could The US Dollar Go?

The US Dollar broke out of its multi-year downtrend and soared above 100. Needless to say, the USD did in fact strengthen a lot. After that initial leg up, the dollar has remained in a consolidation range for much of 2015. Though it recently broke out of a wedge/triangle formation to the upside, it’s not yet clear if this is a definitive move higher or more consolidation.

Copper Prices Decline To Levels Below Cost of Production

There are various estimates for what the Marginal Cost of getting Copper out of the ground is before supply is taken offline completely. But it is reasonable to assume that Copper is currently being priced well below the long term Production Cost of Processing the Industrial Metal. The $2 Copper could well be setting up for an ample short covering rally before 2015 ends.

Currency Devaluation Coming Soon To China

Keep your eye on the market & listen. The global trend in stock prices is still bullish. The market doesn’t yet see any reason to panic over these big picture forces that are playing out under the surface. We’re going through a mild correction but not enough to turn the market bearish. A Chinese currency devaluation might change that but it could still be a year or so away.

Gold Proving Amazingly Resilient Despite Howling Headwinds

Gold has had a rough time, facing selling pressure from record futures shorting. The resulting new secular lows have greatly exacerbated the already-extreme bearish psychology long plaguing gold. But considering the howling headwinds gold has suffered in recent years, it has actually proved amazingly resilient, indicating strong latent demand due to accelerate as sentiment shifts.

The Investment Case For Gold Remains Intact: WGC

Crucially, the long-term investment case for gold is not based on short-term price movements. Gold plays a more important role in a portfolio. Drivers of gold demand respond differently to different economic conditions. Heightened systemic risk typically boosts gold’s role as an insurance asset. Economic growth boosts jewellery demand. This makes if far more than a simple commodity.

Gold Futures Short Covering Rally

In the past, speculator short covering frenzies have pushed gold high enough to ignite new long-side buying by speculators. If this next short covering gold rally coincides with the lofty US stock markets and/or parabolic US dollar finally rolling over, there will be a big resurgence in gold investment demand way beyond speculator short covering.

The Gold Price Being Manipulated. So What?

Talk of gold price manipulation has become a notoriously heated topic amongst precious metals investors over the past several years. Deutsche Bank abandoning its seat on the London gold fix has added fuel to the fire. Here’s a detailed view of the leading conspiracy theories & how they impact my long-term investment outlook.

This Gold Model Calculates Prices Between 1971 And 2017

Did the gold bull market end in August 2011 – Or – Was last year’s decline merely a correction in the bull run? The answer, can be found in my gold pricing model that has accurately replicated Average gold prices after the noise of politics, news, HFT & day-to-day “management” have been purged.

Gold Prices Rise To 4 Month High, But Will The Bull Run Continue?

I would be a bit cautious because we’ve seen swings in equity markets & turmoil in emerging markets subside & that’s not a strong backdrop for gold prices going forward. Without any meaningful shift in investor sentiment & given the positive macroeconomic outlook, gold’s rally may be temporary.

Bank Of America Warns "The US Dollar Is In Trouble"

Global financial and commodity markets are warning that the US Dollar is in for a bout of trouble, warns (Bank Of America) BofAML’s Macneil Curry. Across assets gold has been the lead market against the US Dollar; having forged its base back in mid December.

30 Year Slide In Dollar May Be New Life For Gold: 2014 Outlook

If the dollar’s 30 year decline, as measured by the DXY Index continues, gold may be the main beneficiary. Smart money who understand it’s importance as a diversification continue to accumulate gold – Despite compelling reasons for gold to rally, it still seems to be stuck in a downtrend.

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