Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘US Dollar Rally’

Gold Sparkles Most when Dark Clouds Loom over the Economy

After disappointing US economic growth data was released, gold jumped 1.2%. Weak data is good for gold because it decreases the chances of a rate hike soon. If US economy continues to struggle, the Fed could delay its next rate hike. If the dollar index breaks below 93, it could be a strong indication that a new downtrend in the dollar has started. And this could give a big boost to gold prices.

The Medium-Term Gold Market Outlook Deteriorated Substantially Last Week

While the long-term outlook for gold could hardly be better, the short to medium-term outlook deteriorated substantially last week, with an important chart reversal on Thursday that was not negated by Friday’s bounce-back. Gold reversed violently intraday to close well down on Thursday on high volume, leaving behind a classic “shooting star” reversal on its chart.

Everyone Is Probably Wrong About The US Dollar

Could the current US dollar rally last a bit longer? Absolutely. However, it is unlikely to move substantially higher without a reasonable correction first. From a contrarian standpoint, with everybody on the long side of the trade, it may be time to take the opposing view. The good news is that a weaker dollar will play favorably for the beaten down commodity driven sectors.

Will there be an Epic (final) US Dollar Rally?

The overall down-trend of the US dollar is clear. But one must remember that counter-trends are typically far more powerful than many expect – and many counter-trends last far longer than expected as well. Let’s discuss the factors that could conceivably bring about the mother of all counter-rallies in the USD.

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