Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘US Dollar’

Is a US Dollar Rally Imminent or will Gold and Silver Continue Rising?

The past three weeks have seen a sharp increase in Commercial long liquidation coupled with accelerated shorting but the aggregate number of shorts is still well below the level seen at major tops in the summer of 2016 and with gold approaching U.S.$1,400 per ounce. The risk in this assumption that the U.S. Dollar index ($USD) is about to stage a reversal to the upside, forcing the algo’s to sell gold.

Gold Outperforms Stocks - And This Bull Market in Gold and Silver is Just Beginning

The great news is that this nascent bull market in gold and silver, or more accurately second upleg of the larger bull market that started in about 2001 is set to dwarf the 2001—2011 upleg. Despite Dow Jones records that have kept all eyes focused on the meteoric rise of the the S&P 500, gold has actually outpaced stocks in 2017. And now even the mainstream is starting to sit up and take notice.

Gold Prices may be Slow to Rise, but the Direction seems Completely Certain

Gold is challenging the $1300 level for the third time this year. If it breaks upwards out of this consolidation phase convincingly, it could be an important event, signalling a dollar that will continue to weaken. The factors driving the dollar lower are several & disparate. Here is a summary of these trends & explains why the consequence appear certain to drive gold, priced in dollars, much higher.

Gold and Silver Prices in Consolidation mode before another Bout of Rising Higher

Gold has broken strong resistance & bullish pressures are on despite ongoing consolidation. Expected to show continued consolidation before another leg higher. At this time of heightened geopolitical risk, we strongly believe gold could turn out to be an underowned and well-priced insurance policy. Moreover, gold has the potential to perform very well in periods of stock market weakness.

Fed Minutes on Inflation, Debt Limit, Balance Sheet & the Effect on Gold

If the Fed minutes indicate that more Fed policymakers see the weak inflation as long-lasting, it could reduce the chances of an anticipated hike, thus the USD would drop. On the other hand, the corrective move in the US Dollar would gather pace if the policymakers blame low inflation on transitory factors. The Fed minutes due today would shed light on the future movements in gold.

Gold Prices have Beaten the Stock Market so far this Century

The price of gold has outperformed the S&P 500 Index so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions, both of them resulting in a loss of around 40 percent. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, boosting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.

Dollar nowhere near Bottoming out, Gold nowhere near Topping out

Despite two rate hikes & impending balance sheet reduction, the 10-year yield has moved 15% lower since early March while USD has been weakening, both contrary to many forecasts. While USD has been falling, Gold has rallied over $200 since December 2015 to its current mark at 1,276.70. Now there are many potential catalysts to move make the 20%+ seen in Gold look small.

Supremacy of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency is Doomed

A relief rally is likely in the US dollar, although that doesn’t mean the rally will get very far, nor that the dollar’s downtrend is done. While several indicators are suggesting that it will take at least a breather here, if it does break down the consequences for the dollar are likely to be dire—and this could be the message of the super bullish gold and silver.

Don't Worry, Gold Prices Will Rise - These 7 Worrisome Signs Will Ensure It

Even if markets continue to rise in the interim, gold prices will rise. Since late 2015, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by 30%. While the outlook for the US economy is more positive than it was 12 months ago, if we zoom out for a moment, the big picture ain’t so rosy. Gold has historically done well in times of uncertainty & panic & with these 7 worrisome signs, there could be plenty ahead.

Warning Bells to Prepare for the Worst - Preserve Wealth with Gold

U.S. debt levels are higher now than they’ve ever been, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Loose monetary policy has artificially inflated stock prices despite weak economic growth. Instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers. Stocks appear to be overvalued right now, in turn boosting the safe-haven investment case for gold.

Historically the Best Assurance for Higher Gold Prices - Debt & Inflation

It is our opinion that the situation today best mirrors 1973, when gold prices gained 134% & gold miners rose 205%, rather than 2008. 1973 was spurred by overwhelming debt and inflation. It is no secret that the world’s governments will continue printing money to fund growth & to service debt. History is favoring a similar situation & gold will be the safe haven from inflation & uncertainty.

A Massive Rally in Silver Prices is More Than Likely - The Opportunity of a Lifetime

Silver prices moved from $4 in 2001 to over $49 in 2011, a whopping 1220% growth. But in the last bull market in silver, the dumb money waited till silver prices had already climbed to $45 before they finally convinced themselves to enter the market, just as the smart ones were getting ready to sell. If you were one of those who waited, hopefully you learned your lesson. Here is your second chance.

What's Affecting the Price of Gold and Silver than the Obvious

The world of pricing gold and silver is a fiction, for their pricing are solely determined by those in charge of the globalist asylum. With the war on cash now underway, would you rather own gold and silver, soon to disappear worthless fiat, or imaginary digits that bankers can make disappear if they do not like your political attitude? The globalists are trying to set a trap for gold and silver holders.

Gold Prices Can Test $2,000 in 18 months on Weak Dollar & Geo-political Tensions

Part of the bullish case for gold prices is an emerging distrust towards U.S. geopolitical behavior & accelerating physical gold purchasing in the rest of the world. While some may be discussing the dollar or equities’ impact on gold prices, the driving factor behind the metal’s price will become “the loss in trust of leadership and governments and financial markets.

Rising Gold Prices & Gold Demand in India - A Major Cause for Optimism

India’s citizens are reportedly turning to gold as a safe haven amid doubts about paper money. It’s actually unusual to see India’s demand growing when gold prices are going up. The fact that prices and demand are rising in tandem could signal an important and positive shift in fundamentals — watch for April import figures in a few weeks to see if the trend continues.

Analysis - The Macroeconomic Drivers of the Gold Price

There are essentially two types of gold price drivers worth discussing: measurable ones and those that cannot be measured. Most of the “measurable” macroeconomic fundamentals that are considered important drivers of the gold price are either mixed/neutral or bearish at the moment. However, there are good reasons to believe that several of them will turn gold-bullish.

US Dollar Headed Significantly Lower with Lower Highs & Lower Lows

Lower highs and lower lows mean one thing — a downtrend. That’s what the US dollar is in now. This downtrend is happening despite anticipated rate hikes. So maybe ask yourself, what if the Fed doesn’t hike rates? What will the US dollar do then? We’ve had some good news on consumer confidence and manufacturing. But that’s the icing on a pretty disappointing economic cake.

Negative Real Rates to Drive Gold Prices Higher Despite Fed Hikes

With arguably the two biggest drivers of the gold price trending in the yellow metal’s favor, gold prices are likely to go higher. Although the dollar could rise if Washington implements some structural reform, real rates aren’t headed higher anytime soon based on the Fed’s actions. If past is prologue, as inflation rises over the coming months, gold will do very well.

Secure Wealth with Gold as Brexit moves from a Concept to a Reality

The Brexit process may now be irreversible, but the actual terms of the withdrawal & of any trade agreements that follow are not yet known. They will determine the impact on stocks in the U.K. & elsewhere. There is one market that could benefit as negotiations get underway & that is gold. The focus will also turn from Brexit to a potential Frexit with upcoming French elections in April.

How Do a Nation’s Gold Reserves Affect its Economy?

Gold reserves is a wide topic and there are many subjects to be discussed. For instance, there must be connection among gold trade, gold reserves and gold prices. What are the effects of gold prices on governments reserved gold? and the most important question, what will be the impact after the end of raw gold? In general, I would like to sum up the main ideas of that topic.

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