Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘US Shale’

Here's What Saudi Arabia’s New Oil Policy Will Look Like

Ali al-Naimi’s termination & Prince Mohammed’s official ascent to the top of the Saudi oil chain of command are likely bearish in the short term, as Saudi Arabia reverts to its 2014 strategy of pushing oil prices low enough to put marginal producers out of business. What does this mean for oil, since Khalid Al-Falih is likely to follow Naimi’s policy of safeguarding Saudi Arabia’s market share?

Yesterday, less than a year after Saudi Arabia launched its attack on “marginal” US Shale producers which has sent the price of WTI oil crashing by more than 50% from $100 before recouping a substantial portion of the losses and last trading around $60, the Kingdom gloated in declaring victory over US Shale.

Why Saudi Arabia Just Boosted Oil Production To A Record High

The problem for oil producers and investor is that the Saudis are not acting in isolation. The combination of rising U.S. production and rising Saudi production can only be bearish for oil prices. The prospect of oil testing its January low should not be ruled out, especially if Iran is given the green light to ramp up exports.

What's Next For Oil And Gold: Thoughts From Eric Sprott, Rick Rule & Marc Faber

Weak economies around the world offer weak demand for commodities and for capital. The effect is to keep interest rates extremely low and to push commodity prices down. We can therefore view the oil price as a symptom of poor global economic growth, which is a long-term problem & not just as a consequence of a slight oversupply.

Why Citi Thinks Oil Is Going To $20

Citi warns the oil market should bottom sometime between the end of Q1 and beginning of Q2 at a significantly lower price level in the $40 range (perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while) – after which markets should start to balance, first with an end to inventory builds and later on with a period of sustained inventory draws.

The New Normal for Crude Oil?

With US shale being one of the main culprits of excess crude oil production, storage of crude in US markets have risen above seasonally adjusted highs in the last year. This abundance of stored crude has pushed the current spot price of crude oil toward five-year lows, as current demand is just not there to take on more crude production.

Not ‘Rushing in’ to Buy Oil Juniors for 5 or 6 Months : Rick Rule

A lower oil price might stimulate demand in the near term, as people have more money, thanks to lower gasoline & energy costs. This begins to seed the overall economy for a recovery – a real recovery unlike the manufactured ones, based on cheap credit in developed nations. In the near term, though, price decline may weigh on the economy.

Why Russia’s Unfazed by Falling Oil Prices

Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think. If Russia ramps up production to raise revenues, it will lead to a bigger fall in oil prices. And one of the primary victims will be US shale production. The slide in oil prices threatens American energy independence & emboldens rather than weakens Russia.

US Shale Under Pressure From More Than Just Low Prices

Denton’s ban prohibits drilling within the city limits and joins other local referendums passed. The lasting effect of such local referendums is yet to be seen, but they come at a difficult time for an oil and gas industry. New well permits issued in November fell nearly 40%t from the previous month which indicates a slowdown in shale plays across the US.

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