Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘USD’

How Much More Higher Could The US Dollar Go?

The US Dollar broke out of its multi-year downtrend and soared above 100. Needless to say, the USD did in fact strengthen a lot. After that initial leg up, the dollar has remained in a consolidation range for much of 2015. Though it recently broke out of a wedge/triangle formation to the upside, it’s not yet clear if this is a definitive move higher or more consolidation.

Global Markets to Fed: No Rate Hike, Strong Dollar Is Killing Us

There are many reasons for global markets to melt down, but one that doesn’t get enough attention is the strong dollar. The USD has already strengthened by 20%. The damage delivered by the rising dollar has been severe; a move higher from here might prove fatal to emerging markets and faltering U.S. corporate profits.

Trading the Parabolic Dollar

The US dollar has been rocketing higher on the incredible divergence of major central-bank policies. While the Fed’s first rate-hike in 9 years looms, ECB has started aggressively monetizing sovereign debt first time ever. Resulting yield differential has catapulted the USD parabolic, portending a major reversal & fantastic trading opportunity.

Will China's Currency Peg Be the Next to Fall?

A pegged currency rises & falls against other currencies along with the underlying currency. As the dollar weakened from 2010 to mid-2014, China’s Renminbi weakened along with it. Now that the USD has gained 16% in less than a year, that’s dragging the RMB / Yuan higher with it, making China’s goods less competitive outside the US.

When A Soaring Dollar "Reflects Loss Of Investor Confidence And Is Potentially Devastating"

A strong dollar has a Jekyll and Hyde personality – a ‘good dollar’ that reflects economic & monetary policy divergence & whose rally is orderly and limited. A ‘bad dollar’ which de-couples from monetary policy & reflects instead a loss of investor in the face of higher volatility. That dollar rises faster, much further & is potentially devastating.

Gold Price & The US Dollar Trend Forecast For 2015

My forecast conclusion is for the Gold price to trend lower into August 2015, targeting a low of $1050 before Gold finally makes a low for the year that propels the Gold price to above $1300, probably spiking to approx $1350 during Nov. Clear investing strategy for 2015 will be for one of accumulating into Gold during first half weakness.

How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed

Basically, the Petrodollar, long serving as the US leverage to encourage and facilitate US Dollar recycling, and a steady reinvestment in US-denominated assets by the Oil exporting nations, and thus a means to steadily increase the nominal price of all USD-priced assets, just drove itself into irrelevance.

Major Currencies and Gold - The Big Picture

Various developed nations have been able to leverage their currencies to economic or at least stock market gains, after all. What has gold done? Gold is trying to bottom here. Just as the 2011 ‘Knee Jerks’ hurt gold’s investment sponsorship greatly on a large scale, the small scale panics can be damaging on a short-term basis.

Will there be an Epic (final) US Dollar Rally?

The overall down-trend of the US dollar is clear. But one must remember that counter-trends are typically far more powerful than many expect – and many counter-trends last far longer than expected as well. Let’s discuss the factors that could conceivably bring about the mother of all counter-rallies in the USD.

China Demands Gold As Collateral For Zimbabwe Loans

China is happy to provide the financing to turn Africa into Disneyland – Monorails & all – but there is one catch… the loans must be backed by gold as collateral, in accordance with rules & regulations when granting any loan. Great way for China to transform its excess USDs to Gold (Also get paid interest while it waits).

Emerging Market FX: The Straw That Broke The Carry-Trade's Back

FX Market positioning has played a major role in the significant volatile moves seen in the past week as market volatility appears to have been the straw that broke the carry-trade’s back – for now… as Emerging Market currency returns have notably decoupled from moves in US rates.

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