Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Volatility’

Stock Market Crashes happen when no one's Worried about it, Not when Everyone's Worried

Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Why should investors be so concerned right now? I expect the wheel of fortune to turn and for luck to run out for the sellers. The catalysts for a volatility spike are all in place. We could even get a record super-spike in volatility if several of these catalysts converge.

Cracks Forming in Stock Markets Suggest of Looming High Powered Volatility

Cracks are forming in an equity bull market that’s been devoid of major price swings for months – and you might miss them if you don’t know where to look. Don’t be lulled to sleep by near-record low stock market price swings. Before you know it, shares will be getting whipsawed around, just like the good ol’ days. At least that’s what official measures of volatility are suggesting.

Is Apparent Strength in Stock Market Masking Deeper problems below the Surface?

Mounting pessimism comes at a time when US equities are looking healthy, at least on the surface. This apparent strength of the stock market may just be masking deeper problems brewing under the surface. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point.

Why & How to Hedge Growing Risks by Diversifying with Gold Investment

Equity has been going up. It’s been ingrained now that you’ve got to buy the dips & again. And there’s going to be a lot of crying happening in those markets if and when those markets show an extended period of volatility. The beauty about precious metals, gold in particular, is that the longtime correlation to equities is near zero. And as such, it’s a diversifier.

A Major New Bear Phase is Long Overdue in Stock Markets - Don’t be Fooled

If you study the history of the stock markets, stock prices never do well for long starting from bubble valuations. Such extreme stock prices relative to underlying corporate earnings streams actually herald the births of major new bear markets. So buying stocks here, late in a huge old bull market artificially levitated by the Fed, is the height of folly. Massive losses are inevitable.

History Says Markets Could Crash in the Cruelest Month - September

What month is the great menace for markets? September… What could possibly go wrong? Turns out the 30 days ahead are peppered with land mines that could go off with…detonative effects on the market. One of them is Sept. 21. The markets have most definitely not “priced in” a rate hike. It will sell off violently if the Fed goes ahead and raises rates.

Any Eruption of Reality will Reveal this Stock Market Rally as a Head-Fake

All the technical “buy” signals are precisely what you’d expect in a rigged rally. If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the stock market rally as a head-fake. Having exterminated short-sellers, there won’t be many who will benefit should the rally be transformed into a rout by reality.

Is There A Better Insurance Against Global Risk Than Gold? I Doubt It!

Negative rates kill the incentive to save & without savings, there will be no investments or growth in the economy. But the biggest disaster is hitting the pension sector. When risks are major, it is critical to protect yourself against them. It is not a coincidence that some of the most successful investors in the world are recommending physical gold as insurance against these risks.

Why Goldman Is Suddenly Warning About A "Large Drop" In The Market

After recent bearish conversions by the JPM, BofA, Citi & UBS, the only bank that steadfastly held a bullish view on stocks during the recent market squeeze higher was Goldman Sachs. Not any more. With 80% of fund managers underperforming, the probability of irrational capital allocations increases & as a result there is a reasonably high probability of a large drop in the S&P500.

Volatility Frustrates Traders: No Rational Explanations On What’s Going On

Traders are frustrated in a market where nothing makes sense. A casualty of this current volatility is that at any given time there are no rational explanations for what’s going on. Back & forth swings of meaningful proportion are characterized, by necessity, with a random reason generator. Better to just put it down to simple things like China’s economy or European banking system is collapsing.

Gold Never Changes, It's The World Around It That Does

To understand how the price of gold is affected relative to risk assets, we foremost need to understand how risk assets move. When fear is low, investors may embrace “risk assets,” including stocks and junk bonds. When fear comes back to the market, ‘risk assets’ tend to under-perform as investors reduce their exposure & move to a ‘safe haven’ asset – Gold.

The Real Reason Behind Crazy Volatility In Crude Oil This Week

The volatility in crude oil trading has been incredible to say the least, and has reached the highest levels since Lehman’s systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos.

Did Janet Yellen Just Shoot Herself In The Foot, Again

The bigger problem now is that Yellen just reset the market’s expectations, and in fact set the bar for disappointment even higher. As FTN rates strategist Jim Vogel very correctly notes, “financial market risk is calmer this morning, but Yellen actually elevated the stakes with her detailed speech yesterday afternoon.”

Will They Or Won't They? Five Fed Meeting Scenarios & Market Impact

Even beyond the immediacy of this Fed decision, the high likelihood that the Fed will still hike in 2015 even if it passes on doing so this week is contributing to levels of 3m implied volatility being near the highs of the year. Here are Credit Suisse’s 5 scenarios & possibilities that could emerge from today’s FOMC.

Dependence On Central Banks Is "Unrealistic And Dangerous", BIS Warns

This is a world in which interest rates have been extraordinarily low for exceptionally long and in which financial markets have worryingly come to depend on every word and deed of the central banks, in turn complicating the needed policy normalisation. It is unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills.

Why So Much Volatility In Oil Prices? Blame The Speculators

Much of the gain was related to speculative movements & decisions of oil traders moving barrels of oil on paper. Speculators had taken a near-record level of short positions on oil, predicting oil prices would continue to fall. They did fall, for about 2 months. However, with such a large preponderance of short positions, the timing was right for a correction.

Traders Are Buying Gold & Silver At Fastest Pace In Over A Decade

Large speculators increased their net long gold exposure to $14.8bn from $9.2bn & Silver net long position to $4.4bn from $2.4bn notional. It seems as if Yellen’s introduction of complications has led to at least contemplation about it, tipping the scales, ever so slightly, back toward financial suicide.

It’s Time to Hold More Cash and Buy Gold

Bank of America highlights problems with raising rates. The real economy in the U.S. is not currently strong enough to withstand a rise in interest rates. That raising rates could cause a shock to the markets & economy. To deal with this they advocate adding gold to one’s portfolio along with higher levels of cash.

Is The Claimed Gold Really There? – Part II

When gold becomes “important” again, really and truly having it WILL matter. “Trust us” will no longer be good enough, proof will be required. Gold demand will explode either out of financial fear of the actions in paper markets or …it will explode because the revelation is uncovered the “gold really isn’t there”. BOOM…

Citi Warns - Central Banks Grip On The World Economy Is Waning

Not only are central bank policies having a disappointing effect on business sentiment and investment; they are failing even to revive inflation expectations. Despite having growing doubts as to central banks’ ability to create durable economic growth, we remain convinced as to their ability to push up risky asset prices.

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