Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘West Texas Intermediate’

Do Not Underestimate The Power Of This Year's Rally In Oil Prices

Oil futures are currently around $49, v/s $65 seen in the Q2 of 2015. If the futures market doesn’t expect the oil prices to rise, producers can’t lock in a profit like they might have at $65. If you can’t lock in a profit, you can’t produce as much & thus supply should theoretically fall. This has led us to say the futures price is far more important than the current or spot price.

Plunge In Oil Prices Prove You Shouldn't Try "Catching a Falling Knife"

Oil crashed in the second half of last year, falling from over US$100 to below US$45 in Jan 2015. Many thought it was a great buy & piled in to oil stocks. Oil turned up & then back down to make a new low in March. Again bargain hunters came in & oil began a hefty rally, trading back to US$60. Oil prices have now crashed to new lows. What do the bargain hunters think now? Still a bargain?

For The Oil Price - How Low Is Really Low?

An end to QE in the USA is implicated in recent global currency adjustments and the rout of the oil price and that is surely part of the story. But the OPEC policy of maintaining market share and over supply of either LTO or OPEC crude have also played a prominent role in Act 7 that is still being played out and still has a way to run before a new market equilibrium is reached.

Despite Oversupply, Oil Rallies on Currency Moves

Domestic oil inventories still stand at near-record levels for this time of year in at least 80 years. Because oil remains in oversupply, the recent rally owes a lot to currency moves. We might be seeing a dollar reset, which should finally give oil, gold, copper & other important commodities – the much-needed breathing room.

When "Rumor Becomes Reality" - This Is The Devastation Across The US Oil Patch

Trouble has been looming over the oil patch since crude prices began falling last summer, from over $100 a barrel to under $50 today. But only now are the long-feared effects of a bust starting to ripple through the complex energy ecosystem. Cutbacks aren’t yet reflected in broad data on employment, home sales or tax collections.

Falling Oil Prices and the Fallout

Will Western American states continue to boom without $90/barrel oil prices? What will American GDP look like without this latest bubble industry to fuel job creation, tax revenue, and investment? It’s impossible to say right now, although the price of oil in relation to the last four recessions does provide some fuel for speculation.

Shale Liquidations Begin? Sub-$50 Oil Appears In North Dakota

While oil market analysts debate if oil will fall to $50, prices are already there in North Dakota. Cheaper price for North Dakota crude underscores how geographic & logistical hurdles can amplify the stress that plunging futures prices have put on drillers in new shale plays that have helped push US oil production to the highest level in 31 years.

Why the Rising Tide in Oil Hasn’t Been as Good for Offshore Ventures

Thanks to additional new U.S. pipeline capacity and the growing volume of oil product exports from American refineries, the glut of excess storage at Cushing is shrinking. With crude oil prices continuing to rise, you would think that’s good news for both onshore and offshore drilling ventures.

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