Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘WTI Crude Oil’

Will Crude Oil Prices Rise To $60 By Christmas?

What does the crude oil chart forecast? Crude oil has made a nice ascending triangle pattern. If the price breaks out of the $52 levels and sustains the breakout, it gives an upside pattern target of $67. However, the markets have rejected the levels above $52 on December 5, but we should see one more attempt at a breakout above the highs.

End of Driving Season Means More Declines In Crude Oil Prices

The driving season ends next month, which is when most refineries shut down for maintenance after operating at near-full capacity during the summer months. This is—historically—when gasoline demand subsides. The end of summer travels is also when gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. could increase, further pushing down crude oil prices.

Oil Prices Hint Bear Market As Short Positions Surge To 10 Year High

The latest CFTC data show that speculators increased their shorts (bearish bets) by the biggest volume on record in last week’s data for WTI crude oil. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light into Asia for September by the biggest amount in nearly a year. The price discount is a response to lower impending Asian oil demand as refiners dial back on runs.

Oil Markets Increasingly Bullish As Long Positions Surge

The latest CFTC data show that short positions in WTI crude oil shrank again last week, dropping by 20% to the lowest level since June. In combination with a 2.4%t increase in long positions, net-longs increased by 17% – to the highest level since last June. Once again, this increase shows ‘much less bearish’ positioning, as opposed to ‘much more bullish’.

Is Crude Oil Close To A Tradable Bottom?

By all accounts, the world is awash with oil. Despite the downward pressure on oil, the devil’s advocate wonders: could oil be setting up a tradable bottom? By tradable bottom I mean a level from which oil might bounce. For example, oil reversed from the low $40s earlier in 2015 and climbed to about $60 before resuming its downtrend.

Stronger Dollar And OPEC Inaction Force Crude Oil Below $40

Looking at global offshore rigs, even though 40 out of 350 rigs have been taken out of the market in the price rout of the last year, we need to see up to 100 rigs go offline to halt the supply glut. The descent into disarray by OPEC has prompted WTI crude oil to plummet into thirty-dollardom; a strengthening dollar is only serving to strong-arm the crude oil complex lower.

For The Oil Price - How Low Is Really Low?

An end to QE in the USA is implicated in recent global currency adjustments and the rout of the oil price and that is surely part of the story. But the OPEC policy of maintaining market share and over supply of either LTO or OPEC crude have also played a prominent role in Act 7 that is still being played out and still has a way to run before a new market equilibrium is reached.

Forget The Noise: Oil Prices Won’t Crash Again

The big story in oil prices was the rig count on the way down. The big story on the way up will be inventory. Look for WTI crude oil to make a move towards and maybe into the $70’s as clarity strikes the market. Look too for more walls of worry but remember to consider the source.

Could We Finally Have A Meaningful Oil Price Rally?

There are a few reasons for the newfound bullishness in oil prices. First, rig count declines are starting to slow. Second, a likelihood that production has also flattened and is approaching a decline. Another reason for the oil price surge was due to the markets shaking off concern that Iranian crude will suddenly flood the market.

OPEC Pressure on Global Oil Market Continues

The rig count in the Middle East continues to climb, hitting a new record in Feb. This is a clear indication that OPEC has NO intentions of easing up on their overproduction of oil anytime soon. OPEC has two targets in this campaign & the effectiveness of its strategy cannot be denied. WTI Crude is once again below the $50 mark.

North American Crude Oil Production Remains Strong

A massive build-up of crude oil inventories is seen in the US, to levels never seen in recent history. The International Energy Agency has even warned that the US will run out of storage soon. Why do producers continue to pump at low prices? It seems that at that point someone will have to finally stop pumping crude oil out of the ground.

Falling Oil Prices and Gold Market

It is difficult to precisely assess the overall impact of lower oil prices on economic growth. The states driving GDP growth in US now are oil states, indicating that much of current US economic growth depends on the oil business. So what are the possible consequences of the drop in oil prices for the economy and gold market?

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