Commodity Trade Mantra

Posts Tagged ‘Yellen’

Negative Interest Rates: Causes, Consequences and Ramifications

Negative interest rates are unprecedented and show how far we have gone off course in terms of policy related to money and credit markets. They are already having a tremendous effect in several European countries and Japan, and they may eventually be coming to the US. Negative rates hold significant future implications for gold as well.

Goldman Calls It: No Rate Hike Until Mid-2016

There you have it: no rate hike until mid-2016, which as we said previously, means no rate hike at all since the “apolitical” Fed will never hike just before a presidential election, and more importantly, by then the epic inventory liquidation-driven recession will have already started, making the only question that matters in the summer of 2016: NIRP or QE4.

NIRP Officially Arrives In The US As JPM Starts Charging Fees On Deposits

NIRP is now officially in the US, which means that one after another US commercial banks will join what has already become a NIRP free-for-all across most of continental Europe where NIRP now reigns supreme & where trillions in government bonds yield negative rates. JPM is preparing to charge large institutional customers for deposits.

Why You Should Be Prepared for Both Inflation and Deflation

Today’s investment climate is the most challenging one you have ever faced, because inflation and deflation are both possibilities in the near term. Most investors can prepare for one or the other, but preparing for both at the same time is far more difficult. What should you do? The answer is prepare for both, watch carefully and stay nimble.

Central Banks are Not Innocent Bystanders

Central banks don’t raise or lower interest rates randomly, like fluctuations in temperature. Their expectations of overheating cause higher rates, and their expectations of recessions cause lower rates. But central banks can’t tame the storms they raise. So is it that interest rates are relatively innocent bystanders in the business cycle?

We’re in an Era of Central Bank Worship

On the subject of bond markets, “does it not seem incongruous to chase low-yielding fixed-income securities denominated in a currency that the central bank is vowing to inflate?” Why do you think that investors go into bonds despite the Fed’s intention to devalue them over time?

Janus Yellen & the Great Transition from Risk-On to Risk-Off

Regardless of how Janus Yellen tries to sell the idea as the miraculous “fix” to the systemic bubble in claims the central banks have inflated, it will fail just as predictably as her plan to defuse the risk-on trade while maintaining the inflated value of the phantom assets the speculative frenzy has created out of nothing.

QE Ending Because It Was Successful? Then Here Are A Few Questions

Certainly, QE-induced perpetually rising asset prices & sinking volatility, likely boosted consumer confidence through the interpretation of lofty prices as ‘all must be well’. However, those aspects dangerously conspire to produce a false perception about the true state of economic fundamentals. Some simple questions need answers.

Jackson Hole: 'Tremendous' Downside Risks If Yellen Doesn't Go Full-Dovish

The 3 ways Yellen can be dovish. Full dovish goes beyond anything she has stated explicitly in her comments. Semi dovish may generate a strong initial market reaction if it looks as if it is introducing new factors into policy equation but is much more ambiguous. Contingent dovish is the argument she has put forward for a long time.

Fed's Bullard Urges Investors To Sell Bonds (But Not Stocks)

Given the market’s rapid surge to dismissing The Fed’s stock-selling recommendations, we are stunned by the silence of “market defenders” as once again the Fed takes to the airwaves to demand investors sell their bonds. The Fed is desperate for investors to sell their bonds as they are in full panic mode over the broken repo markets.

Freddie And Fannie Reform – The Mortgage Monster Has Arrived

As promised, the Johnson/Crapo bill has finally arrived. The Bill is going to increase mortgage compliance costs. It will confuse, rather than clarify, the mortgage application and approval process. It is a disaster. Fortunately, I opine the Bill has no chance of passing in its present form.

10 Outrageous Predictions for 2014 by Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading specialist and investment advisor has released its ‘Outrageous Predictions’ for 2014. They admit the probability of any of them coming to fruition is rather low. But, that hasn’t stopped them making them – Hype or outlandishly canny laughable material?

Gold Drops Below Cash Cost, Approaches Marginal Production Costs

Not even Bernanke, Yellen, or all the paper Gold ETFs in the world will be able to do much to suppress gold prices from reaching their fair value when gold production hits a standstill, and when demands, especially by China, is still in the hundreds of tons each year.

follow us

markets snapshot

Market Quotes are powered by India

live commodity prices

Commodities are powered by India

our latest tweets

follow us on facebook